This morning, those filing first time unemployment insurance claims rose to 496,000. That's a 22,000 claim jump from last week and substantially higher than the drop that was expected by most economists. Except for a holiday and weather related one-week drop in claims, the amount of claims has been rising in the last 7 weeks of reporting. That is the opposite of what would be expected in a recovering economy.
The Associated Press (AP) is trying to spin this as being "snow-related layoffs" (Click to See Full Story: Jobless claims rise on snow-related layoffs). Please! Since when does any employer, even in construction, let people go because of a week or two of bad whether? If anything, the weather will only delay business activities; not cancel them completely. But, the AP will do anything to soften bad news for this President.
The reality, and not some slobbering defense of Obama by the Associated Press, is that mass layoffs are on the rise again -- as I reported two days ago. Believe me, Harry Reid's $15 billion jobs bill -- the one that was passed just this week -- isn't going to do anymore to improve things than his more than 50 times that amount in the $787 billion Stimulus Bill of last year. These people just don't get it. It is both current and future Federal spending, taxes, and regulation that is killing this economy. Give businesses a stable expense and tax outlook and, I guarantee you, the economy will grow and the employment situation will turn around. Past history shows that it was Reagan's policies and not those of FDR, Carter, and, now, Obama that can turnaround and grow an economy.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
The Consumer Is Literally Frightened
In my opinion, any economic recession is primarily driven by the negative mental attitudes of both the consumer and business owners rather than any amount of bad economic conditions.
If there is any fear in the minds of the consumer that they may lose their jobs, they will refrain from spending. When, business owners sense that the consumer is pulling back, they will, in turn, start letting people go and refrain from their own spending in an effort to preserve their profits. In a way, these fears, as harbored by both consumers and businesses, help to feed off of each other and a recession can get deeper and deeper; purely, for psychological reasons.
Yesterday, the Conference Board, a collective of more than 12,000 senior business executives, announced the results of their latest Consumer Confidence Report and their findings were greatly lower than had been expected. In fact, in a single month, the overall Consumer Confidence rating dropped by nearly 20% from a metric of 56.5% in January to a 10-month low of 46% in February (Click to See Full Story: Consumer confidence falls sharply).
Typically, when there is a reading above 50%, the majority of consumers are feeling good about both themselves and the economy; implying that they will probably spend. However, below 50% --- as in this report -- the consumer is likely to slow their spending because they don't feel good about themselves, their jobs, or the economy.
This is more proof that the American public isn't confident about their situations. It is also another slam against Obama and the Democrats because it shows that their fake and continuing mantra that jobs were saved and created isn't working and it isn't making people feel safe enough to start spending as if things were back to normal. People aren't buying it because they aren't seeing any results. The phony manipulation of the unemployment numbers isn't playing well either. And, it is just more proof that the Massachusetts election was a true referendum against Obama and the Democrat's policies and not simply a referendum against health care reform.
If there is any fear in the minds of the consumer that they may lose their jobs, they will refrain from spending. When, business owners sense that the consumer is pulling back, they will, in turn, start letting people go and refrain from their own spending in an effort to preserve their profits. In a way, these fears, as harbored by both consumers and businesses, help to feed off of each other and a recession can get deeper and deeper; purely, for psychological reasons.
Yesterday, the Conference Board, a collective of more than 12,000 senior business executives, announced the results of their latest Consumer Confidence Report and their findings were greatly lower than had been expected. In fact, in a single month, the overall Consumer Confidence rating dropped by nearly 20% from a metric of 56.5% in January to a 10-month low of 46% in February (Click to See Full Story: Consumer confidence falls sharply).
Typically, when there is a reading above 50%, the majority of consumers are feeling good about both themselves and the economy; implying that they will probably spend. However, below 50% --- as in this report -- the consumer is likely to slow their spending because they don't feel good about themselves, their jobs, or the economy.
This is more proof that the American public isn't confident about their situations. It is also another slam against Obama and the Democrats because it shows that their fake and continuing mantra that jobs were saved and created isn't working and it isn't making people feel safe enough to start spending as if things were back to normal. People aren't buying it because they aren't seeing any results. The phony manipulation of the unemployment numbers isn't playing well either. And, it is just more proof that the Massachusetts election was a true referendum against Obama and the Democrat's policies and not simply a referendum against health care reform.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Mass Layoffs Are On The Rise
In a January 9th posting I wrote:
According to a news story by Reuters, the Labor Department is reporting that mass layoffs (50 or more employees being let go at the same time from any single company) rose to 1,761 layoff incidents in January (Click to See Full Story: US Jan mass layoffs edge up on weak manufacturing). This was the first time this had happened since August of last year.
While the Reuters article speculates that the economy is on the "brink of creating jobs", I think we've got a while before that happens. As predicted in my January 9th blog, I think we will continue to see a rise in corporate layoffs. More than that, though, government layoffs are also on the rise. Just today, it was announced that the New York City Transit System and the San Francisco Schools System will shed 1,000 employees each andthe State of Georgia is in the process of reviewing potential layoffs to shore up its budget woes. In the corporate arena, today, Pratt & Whitney announced 163 layoffs at two Connecticut plants. Last Sunday, Boeing announced 1,020 new jobs losses. Even ABC News plans 300 layoffs. Additionally, this year, layoffs, totaling, in the thousands were announced at Ford, Viacom , UPS, Fedex , and a variety of other companies.
It also seems like every school system in America has announced some amount of expense cutting layoffs at the end of this school year. JustGoogle the word "layoff" and you'll see them all. This fact, alone, just shows that the billions of dollars that were spent in Stimulus Money was just a delaying tactic and that many of those questionable teacher, police and fire "saved" jobs might be in jeopardy again; this time for real. I personally think that the unemployment rate may hit 11 percent or higher this year.
"Having spent years in the business arena, I know that January through March are important months. It is a time when companies assess their business activity over the last 12 months and make decisions on their operations going forward. If they had a good year, they probably won't make any cuts in either operations or people. However, I believe many will have seen the last year as a negative and will, then, decide to make changes that could result in more lost jobs for the months of February, March, and April."
According to a news story by Reuters, the Labor Department is reporting that mass layoffs (50 or more employees being let go at the same time from any single company) rose to 1,761 layoff incidents in January (Click to See Full Story: US Jan mass layoffs edge up on weak manufacturing). This was the first time this had happened since August of last year.
While the Reuters article speculates that the economy is on the "brink of creating jobs", I think we've got a while before that happens. As predicted in my January 9th blog, I think we will continue to see a rise in corporate layoffs. More than that, though, government layoffs are also on the rise. Just today, it was announced that the New York City Transit System and the San Francisco Schools System will shed 1,000 employees each and
It also seems like every school system in America has announced some amount of expense cutting layoffs at the end of this school year. Just
Schwarzenegger Sucks Up To Obama
From the tax and social spending capitol of America, California, the quasi-Republican Governor of that state, Arnold Schwarzenegger, claims that Obama's Stimulus Plan created and saved jobs (Click to See Full Story: Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger defends Obama's stimulus plan).
The reason that Schwarzenegger's comment is so laughable is the fact that California has an official 12.4% unemployment rate -- the 5th worst in the country. But, for sure, the unofficial or "real" underemployment rate that includes discouraged workers is probably well above 20%. That fact coupled with the reality that California is the most populous State in our Union means that more people are out of work in California than probably any other ten States in the country, combined.
On top of all that,the State of California has enough red ink in deficit spending to draw a red line from it's capitol to the far outreaches of our solar system. The State is literally on the verge of defaulting on a wide variety of financial commitments.
So, what's up with "Arnold" and how could he be such a "stoopid Kallyfornyan"; especially, since we are on the eve of this Congress and this President passing a "new" and improved jobs bill. Obviously, Arnold doesn't understand that having to pass another jobs bill after the billions that were spent on the Stimulus Bill is an admission that the Stimulus Package really didn't create job.
My guess is that Arnold has decided to suck up to Obama and the Democrats so that, when California goes completely belly up, he will be able to garner a few dozen billions of dollars in bailout monies for his state. That fact is inevitable because the liberal legislature of California and the all-powerful labor unions would rather have California go down in financial flames than become fiscally responsible by taking cuts in all their outrageous social programs, expenses, and pension payouts.
Instead o f criticizing Republicans, Mr. Schwarzenegger should spend some time learning to properly pronounce the State 's name for which he is the Governor. I'm sure with some dedication and practice, he might just get that "one thing" right before he leaves office.
The reason that Schwarzenegger's comment is so laughable is the fact that California has an official 12.4% unemployment rate -- the 5th worst in the country. But, for sure, the unofficial or "real" underemployment rate that includes discouraged workers is probably well above 20%. That fact coupled with the reality that California is the most populous State in our Union means that more people are out of work in California than probably any other ten States in the country, combined.
On top of all that,
So, what's up with "Arnold" and how could he be such a "stoopid Kallyfornyan"; especially, since we are on the eve of this Congress and this President passing a "new" and improved jobs bill. Obviously, Arnold doesn't understand that having to pass another jobs bill after the billions that were spent on the Stimulus Bill is an admission that the Stimulus Package really didn't create job.
My guess is that Arnold has decided to suck up to Obama and the Democrats so that, when California goes completely belly up, he will be able to garner a few dozen billions of dollars in bailout monies for his state. That fact is inevitable because the liberal legislature of California and the all-powerful labor unions would rather have California go down in financial flames than become fiscally responsible by taking cuts in all their outrageous social programs, expenses, and pension payouts.
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