Will More Charging Stations Create Bigger Demand For Electric Cars?

Well,  Barack Obama would probably say yes.  That's why his administration just announced $4.5 billion in loan guarantees for states and private companies to build charging stations along 25,000 miles of 48 electric vehicle corridors in 35 states.  The goal is that no owner of an electric vehicle (EV) should have to go more than 50 miles to find a charging station.  And, there will be lots of signs to guide them on their way.

President Obama claims that the lack of adequate charging stations caused him to miss his goal by more than 50% to have 1 million EV's on our roads by 2015.  Really?  Thus, like the thinking of many climate change alarmists, the only reason people aren't buying electric cars is that there isn't enough charging stations.

Here's the reality.  A ten minute pit stop for a conventional gasoline powered vehicle can buy you up to 400 miles of travel before having to stop again.  Even with the quickest electric charging capability available, a 20 minute pit stop at a fast charge station will only give you another 50, maybe 60 miles before you need to spend another 20 minutes at the next station.  How, convenient is that?

Also, think about this.  When someone spends 20 minutes charging their car, it is unavailable to anyone else.  How would you like to waste 20 minutes waiting for someone getting their charge, and then wait the same amount of time to complete your own.   Then, less than an hour later, you may have to go through the whole procedure again. Of course, this assumes the car in front of you has quick charging capability.  Otherwise, you may be waiting hours for a station to open up.

In my opinion, the President missed his goal of 1 million cars on the road -- not because of the lack of charging facilities -- but because electric vehicles are simply too impractical.

References:

White House, 35 states to boost electric vehicle charging stations: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/white-house-35-states-to-boost-electric-vehicle-charging-stations.html

25,000 Miles Of U.S. Highways Designated As Electric Vehicle Charging Corridors: http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/11/03/25000-miles-of-u-s-highways-designated-as-electric-vehicle-charging-corridors/

Quick Charging of Electric Cars: http://www.plugincars.com/electric-car-quick-charging-guide.html

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Have U.S. Sales Of Electric Cars Peaked?

In the years 2010 and 2011, Americans only bought a total of 17,425 electric vehicles (EV's).  The following year, 3 times that amount were sold; putting another 52,607 on the road.  In 2013, that number was almost doubled to 97,507.  But in 2014, Americans only bought 25,542 more EV's than they did the year before; bringing the total sales for that year to 123,049.  Even so, that number represented 38% of all worldwide sales of EV's.  

However, 2015 is a completely different story.  In the first 10 months of this year, only 92,347 cars were sold.  Compared to the same period in 2014, this represents a decline of 8,018 vehicles  sold; year-to-date.   Also, America's 38% of all sales in 2014 fell to just 25% of the worldwide sales in 2015.  So, obviously, the slowdown is isolated to this country.

While a one-year decline doesn't make a trend, it could be the beginning of one.  That reality is reinforced by the fact that the growth in American EV sales has been slowing each year.  Certainly, as an all-around vehicle, electric cars are pretty impractical with limited range. Couple that with the knowledge that you have to find a place to charge them whenever you run their batteries down. Another reason may be that the price of gas has fallen from $3.76 a gallon in May of 2014 to the lowest price since 2006 at $2.39 in October of this year.

It will be interesting to see if the decline of sales continues.  Also, when it comes to saving the planet, putting less than 400,000 cars on the road since 2010 is hardly a "green" winner in a country that has more than 254 million passenger cars.  Additionally, the tax payers are on the hook for nearly $3 billion federal dollars since 2010 from handing out $7,500 subsidies to just 383,000 buyers of EV's; mostly a bunch of wealthy environmentalists.  $3 billion dollars is a hollow effort to save the planet.  Further, when people decide to trade-in their old EV's, they find that they take a big financial hit  since there is little demand for used ones.  There's no rebate and the fact that someone might have to replace a very expensive lithium ion battery is quite a turnoff.

References:

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Electric Vehicle Incentives: http://www.teslamotors.com/support/incentives

U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

Passenger vehicles in the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States

Resale Prices Tumble on Electric Cars: http://www.wsj.com/articles/resale-prices-tumble-on-electric-cars-1424977378


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Chevy Volt's Not So Electrifying Sales

Once again Chevy Volt's sales are disappointing.   Two months ago, there was a lot of left-wing joy in that fact that the Chevy Volt broke the 2,000 mark by setting a sales record of 2,289 cars.   Many in the industry saw this as a new trend that would help General Motors "exceed" its claim that they would sell between 15,000 and 20,000 Volts this year; with sales easily surpassing the high end of that range.  Sadly, sales slipped again last month and the Volt only managed to sell 1.654 vehicles.   What really hurt the Volt was the fact that the competing Toyota Prius Plug-In did so well; beating the Volt sales by 192 cars.

The problem with the Volt and other electric cars is the fact that the electric vehicle (EV) market is a niche market with only a small, limited amount of buyers.  For this reason, more models from more manufacturers only mean that this limited number of buyers will be spreading their buying over an increasing amount choices; and each model's sales will suffer in the process. Being the most expensive of all the electrics, this further limits the Volt's market to an even more limited, wealthier class of buyers.   As a result, the Volt's sales will be further marginalized.  Right now the buyers of EV's are finding the Prius the better buy with a known history of Hybrid/battery technology.  The average price of a Prius EV is only $26,000 as compared to the Chevy alternative at $40,000.   And, whether you buy a Volt or a Prius Plug-In, you still get the same $7500 tax rebate.  For all the above reasons, I think the Volt was a mistake and is ultimately doomed to die; and, not necessarily a slow death.