The Incumbent Rule Should Give Romney The Win In Ohio And In The General Election

Right now, there's a lot of talk about the swing-state polls and how Obama and Romney are fairing.  One of the key swing-states is Ohio; with most analysts saying that Romney can't win the election without winning there.

In the last week or so, there has been a flurry of polls in this critical swing state.  Most show the race close, with Obama leading by a scant 1 percentage point. The Fox News poll, on the other hand, appears to be the outlier; giving Obama a 3 percentage point lead: 46% to 43%.  Now, if you would look at the internals of that poll, you would find that a whopping 9% say they are still undecided but are planning to vote.  This is a critical number.

In a previous blog, I talked about the Incumbent Rule where, historically,  80% of undecideds usually break against the incumbent and vote for the challenger on election day.  If this historical fact holds true, Romney is actually leading in Ohio by 50.2% over Obama's 47.8%; once both candidate's numbers are adjusted for that "Rule".   Because this is a conclusional calculation, the margin of error doesn't necessarily apply; and, consequently, Romney appears to be on his way to a win in that state.  And, don't forget, this Fox News poll was the the only one that was most favorable to Obama in the last week.

Lastly, I think, barring any faux pas on Romney's part in the next week or two, he should win a lot of the swing states; simply because of the Incumbent Rule.  Romney now has a clear shot at winning this whole thing.

--- Fox News Ohio Poll: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/19/fox-news-poll-results-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/

--- Polling Report: Incumbent Rule: http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm