Well, this morning, the number of those filing for first-time jobless claims jumped "unexpectedly" to 399,000. My guess is that the Obama Administration took a little "poetic license" (actually political license) in keeping that number just under 400,000; knowing that they can revise it upward next week when all the focus will be on the current week's number.
To me, it is no surprise that we are again back at the horrible levels of joblessness. On Thursday, last December 8th, I wrote a blog entitled: "Holiday Jobless Claims are Always Lower". In that piece I pointed out that, every year, "The claims numbers are always lower in the weeks that constitute the Holiday season -- starting with the week before Thanksgiving and ending in mid-January when seasonally hired workers are let go."
I really feel sorry for the liberal media who had so wishfully believed that the employment situation was improving based on the lower Holiday numbers. As cheerleaders for Obama, nothing could be sweeter than fewer people being let go from their jobs. After all, they're still smitten with him and blindly believing all that "hope" crap that he promised them in 2008. Too bad the hope for improving employment turned out to be so hopeless. When will they finally realize that it's Obama's policies that are killing jobs in America. He's not creating jobs!
Showing posts with label initial jobles claims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label initial jobles claims. Show all posts
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Holiday Jobless Claims are Always Lower
This morning, the initial unemployment insurance claims report (aka the Jobless Claims Report) for the last week fell "unexpectedly" below 400,000 to 381,000. Reuters news wrote this in response: "The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a nine-month low last week, suggesting the labor market's recovery was gaining momentum."
Well, here's the thing. The claims numbers are always lower in the weeks that constitute the Holiday season -- starting with the week before Thanksgiving and ending in mid-January when seasonally hired workers are let go. It's a simple fact that retailers hire during the holidays; causing a lowering in unemployment and claims. It's also human nature. You see, most employers aren't the heartless, greedy ogres that Obama and the Democrats would have you believe. The last thing that any employer wants to do is throw a worker out on the street during the holidays.
But, the news media always jumps on these "seasonal" drops as some "sign" that the economy is getting better. Just last year, CNN reported on the noticeable slowdown in claims with this December 16th headline: "Unemployment claims drift lower." Inside that report, economist Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services was quoted as saying: "...the current downward trajectory is 'very encouraging.'" However, as we now know, that downward trend evaporated after the holidays and the claims numbers started going back up in 2011.
Then, on December 30, CNN wrote an even more ecstatic report on the falling jobless claims under this this headline: "Jobless claims drop below 400,000 mark." They went on to write: "For the first time in more than two years, the number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 last week -- a ray of hope in one of the longest job droughts in U.S. history." Of course, that "longest drought" has continued on with millions of Americans still out of work and still losing jobs.
To me, it seems like the "left-wing media" always has convenient memory loss around this time of the year. But, if you're a liberal news operation and your favored President is floundering at his job, it's a good way to make lemonade out of lemons. This has happened time after time since Obama has been in office. Nearly every week the jobless insurance claims are report as "falling unexpectedly". Then, the following week, the previously reported claims number is bumped up again so the newly reported claims number can be, again, shown as a drop. Yet, the claims remain high at above the 400,000 level. If they had truly fallen as many times as they have been reported to have done so -- in the last three years -- nobody should be out of work.
But, Obama is not a job's president. This, despite how hard the press tries to make him look like one. From his spending and energy policies to his healthcare and financial service mandates, this President and his administration have done absolutely nothing to correct the high unemployment situation in this country. That is not just me saying this. It's a simple, statistical fact.
Well, here's the thing. The claims numbers are always lower in the weeks that constitute the Holiday season -- starting with the week before Thanksgiving and ending in mid-January when seasonally hired workers are let go. It's a simple fact that retailers hire during the holidays; causing a lowering in unemployment and claims. It's also human nature. You see, most employers aren't the heartless, greedy ogres that Obama and the Democrats would have you believe. The last thing that any employer wants to do is throw a worker out on the street during the holidays.
But, the news media always jumps on these "seasonal" drops as some "sign" that the economy is getting better. Just last year, CNN reported on the noticeable slowdown in claims with this December 16th headline: "Unemployment claims drift lower." Inside that report, economist Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial Services was quoted as saying: "...the current downward trajectory is 'very encouraging.'" However, as we now know, that downward trend evaporated after the holidays and the claims numbers started going back up in 2011.
Then, on December 30, CNN wrote an even more ecstatic report on the falling jobless claims under this this headline: "Jobless claims drop below 400,000 mark." They went on to write: "For the first time in more than two years, the number of Americans filing for their first week of unemployment benefits fell below 400,000 last week -- a ray of hope in one of the longest job droughts in U.S. history." Of course, that "longest drought" has continued on with millions of Americans still out of work and still losing jobs.
To me, it seems like the "left-wing media" always has convenient memory loss around this time of the year. But, if you're a liberal news operation and your favored President is floundering at his job, it's a good way to make lemonade out of lemons. This has happened time after time since Obama has been in office. Nearly every week the jobless insurance claims are report as "falling unexpectedly". Then, the following week, the previously reported claims number is bumped up again so the newly reported claims number can be, again, shown as a drop. Yet, the claims remain high at above the 400,000 level. If they had truly fallen as many times as they have been reported to have done so -- in the last three years -- nobody should be out of work.
But, Obama is not a job's president. This, despite how hard the press tries to make him look like one. From his spending and energy policies to his healthcare and financial service mandates, this President and his administration have done absolutely nothing to correct the high unemployment situation in this country. That is not just me saying this. It's a simple, statistical fact.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
The Persistence of a Jobless Recovery
Some economists seem to think that the recession was over a year ago. However, the group charged with the responsibility of umpiring that call, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has still not declared this recession as being over. Theoretically, two positive quarters of growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should be the signal for such a call; and, we've had three. Yet, the NBER still remains silent.
I think the NBER is concerned about the employment situation; which, by any measure, is stalled out. As a result, any economist worth his/her salt is probably thinking that a double-dip recession is ahead of us. I think this potential reality has kept them in limbo with regard to calling the recession over.
Certainly, the initial jobless claims number that was released this A.M. gave the NBER no reason to think the economy has recovered. Once again, the number came in over 450,000 jobs. In fact, it jumped 12,000 jobs from last week's number to 472,000 claims; and, that previous number, too, was upped by 4,000 additional laid-off workers (Click here to See Story: Jobless claims rise 12,000 to 472,000). Additionally, the number of long-term claimants rose by 88,000 for the month and approximately 350,000 just fell off the roles completely because their unemployment benefits completely ran out.
This morning's horrible number in combination with last week's bad one just shows that the economy is weakening; not growing as the Obama Administration would have you and I believe. Both of these numbers, in conjunction with the miserable unemployment report of almost two weeks ago, speaks volumes as to the failure of the stimulus package to create jobs.
Don't expect anything to get better soon. In fact, the job picture is only sure to get worse next month as thousands of workers are laid off due to the suspension of off-shore oil drilling. Then, too, I think the number of non-spill related job losses is already on the rise as small and large businesses, alike, try to fight to survive the impending impact of ObamaCare and the elimination of the Bush tax cuts in January. Also, lets not forget that companies might further, be in a kind of hiring abeyance as they mull over the impact of Cap and Trade or carbon penalties that may hit their particular businesses as well. No one should kid themselves into believing that this President, his Administration, and the Democrats of Congress are, somehow, economy and job friendly.
I think the NBER is concerned about the employment situation; which, by any measure, is stalled out. As a result, any economist worth his/her salt is probably thinking that a double-dip recession is ahead of us. I think this potential reality has kept them in limbo with regard to calling the recession over.
Certainly, the initial jobless claims number that was released this A.M. gave the NBER no reason to think the economy has recovered. Once again, the number came in over 450,000 jobs. In fact, it jumped 12,000 jobs from last week's number to 472,000 claims; and, that previous number, too, was upped by 4,000 additional laid-off workers (Click here to See Story: Jobless claims rise 12,000 to 472,000). Additionally, the number of long-term claimants rose by 88,000 for the month and approximately 350,000 just fell off the roles completely because their unemployment benefits completely ran out.
This morning's horrible number in combination with last week's bad one just shows that the economy is weakening; not growing as the Obama Administration would have you and I believe. Both of these numbers, in conjunction with the miserable unemployment report of almost two weeks ago, speaks volumes as to the failure of the stimulus package to create jobs.
Don't expect anything to get better soon. In fact, the job picture is only sure to get worse next month as thousands of workers are laid off due to the suspension of off-shore oil drilling. Then, too, I think the number of non-spill related job losses is already on the rise as small and large businesses, alike, try to fight to survive the impending impact of ObamaCare and the elimination of the Bush tax cuts in January. Also, lets not forget that companies might further, be in a kind of hiring abeyance as they mull over the impact of Cap and Trade or carbon penalties that may hit their particular businesses as well. No one should kid themselves into believing that this President, his Administration, and the Democrats of Congress are, somehow, economy and job friendly.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
The Press (Again) Fudges The Jobless Claims Numbers
When actually reported "last" Thursday, the number of first-time jobless claimants was 456,000; exactly the same as was reported in this morning's weekly report. Yet, if you read the news headlines, they all say that the jobless claims number fell by 3,000. So, what gives?
Actually, it is a little trickery that is being played out almost every week by the mainstream media and being sown by the government agency reporting that number: Obama's Labor Department.
Every time a jobless claims' number is reported, a revision for the prior week is also issued. As had been the case in almost every report this year, the week's prior number was bumped up (revised higher). In this morning's case, last week's number was upped by 3,000 jobs to 459,000 and, magically, this week's 456,000 claims appears to have been a drop of 3,000. An improvement? Not hardly? If you would read beneath the headlines, you would actually find out that the 4-week moving average of jobless claims headed upwards by 2,500 jobs; not getting better as the mainstream media would have you believe from their Obama and Democrat-protecting headlines.
The most blatant abuser of this fact is the always Obama-loving Associated Press (AP). This morning, an AP writer, Christopher S. Rugaber, actually had the gall to post a headline that read: 'New jobless claims dip for third straight week'. Not actually a lie if you play the "revisions game". But, it is a true distortion in view of the fact that there is, now, a rising, not declining, 4-week moving average. No way in mathematical hell can you have a 4-week moving average that is going up, and still claim that the last 3 weeks had declines. Maybe it's due to Mr. Rugaber's use of the "new math" that they're teaching our kids in schools these days?
So, anyway, here's a link to a CNBC's news report of all the numbers behind this morning's jobless claims: 'Weekly Claims Edge Lower as Jobs Recovery Plods On' (even though, it too, carries the same misleading headline). If you read the report carefully, you will see what I am complaining about. It is this kind of sleight of hand and distortion of the facts that caused me to create this blog and call it "Cutting Through The Fog" so that the lies and double-speak of the news media and politicians can be clearly exposed.
Actually, it is a little trickery that is being played out almost every week by the mainstream media and being sown by the government agency reporting that number: Obama's Labor Department.
Every time a jobless claims' number is reported, a revision for the prior week is also issued. As had been the case in almost every report this year, the week's prior number was bumped up (revised higher). In this morning's case, last week's number was upped by 3,000 jobs to 459,000 and, magically, this week's 456,000 claims appears to have been a drop of 3,000. An improvement? Not hardly? If you would read beneath the headlines, you would actually find out that the 4-week moving average of jobless claims headed upwards by 2,500 jobs; not getting better as the mainstream media would have you believe from their Obama and Democrat-protecting headlines.
The most blatant abuser of this fact is the always Obama-loving Associated Press (AP). This morning, an AP writer, Christopher S. Rugaber, actually had the gall to post a headline that read: 'New jobless claims dip for third straight week'. Not actually a lie if you play the "revisions game". But, it is a true distortion in view of the fact that there is, now, a rising, not declining, 4-week moving average. No way in mathematical hell can you have a 4-week moving average that is going up, and still claim that the last 3 weeks had declines. Maybe it's due to Mr. Rugaber's use of the "new math" that they're teaching our kids in schools these days?
So, anyway, here's a link to a CNBC's news report of all the numbers behind this morning's jobless claims: 'Weekly Claims Edge Lower as Jobs Recovery Plods On' (even though, it too, carries the same misleading headline). If you read the report carefully, you will see what I am complaining about. It is this kind of sleight of hand and distortion of the facts that caused me to create this blog and call it "Cutting Through The Fog" so that the lies and double-speak of the news media and politicians can be clearly exposed.
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