War Is All Around Us

Besides a failing economy, the incoming Obama administration has one thing they can count on: that's War. And, most importantly, there is the possibility of war in almost every corner of the world.

There is no doubt that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan aren't going to be wrapped up anytime soon. Then, this weekend's pounding of Hamas and the residents of the Gaza Strip by the Israelis just proves to reinforce the fragility of peace in the Middle East. But, that's not hardly where all the tensions stop.

Just Prior to Christmas, additional Pakistani troops were moved to their adjacent border with India in a new and more ominous troop build up between these two nuclear powers (See Full Story). The U.S. is caught in the middle on this one because both are our allies. But, the consequences of a war involving Pakistan and anyone else can seriously hurt our efforts in our war on terror.

Much closer to home, and rarely ever talked about, are the tensions between Columbia and Venezuela and Ecuador and Columbia (Venezuela's close political friend). My guess is that we could see war in this area within a year's time (See Full Story). Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela, may just want to use a war with Columbia as a means to bolster his sagging popularity. The real question is whether the U.S. will intervene and assist Columbia as our ally and as a means of keeping Chavez from expanding his scope of power.

Then, there's the biggest tinderbox of all. That's the situation between Iran and Israel; with Iran obtaining and possibly using nuclear weapons against Israel. While no war exists now, this situation could be the biggest test for the Obama administration with Israel poised to stop Iran before they can complete their fulfillment of having nuclear weapons. While President of Iran, Mr. Ahmadinejad (that's All*mad*and*jihad), claims that his nuclear program is only for peaceful energy, the whole world knows differently. Mr. Obama claims he can put this situation to bed by simply talking to Ahmadinejad; something he feels that Bush has been neglectful in doing. However, that is a political lie on the part of Obama. For at least three years, key members of Europe (France, England, and Germany) have been holding talks with Iran; and, in 2006, the United States offered to have direct talks if Iran would suspend it's uranium enrichment activities while the talks are ongoing (See Full Story). Of course, Mr. Obama would talk without any preconditions. Sort of like Nero: "fiddling while Rome burns"!

I personally think that Obama might find himself a little over his head on foreign affairs. He's got most of the Clinton people on his team that failed to get an accord between Israel and Palestine while Bill Clinton was in office. His Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, hasn't got a history of being the diplomat. Just look back at her miserable failure in getting support for a Federal health care system at the beginning of Bill Clinton's first term. That was a domestic diplomatic disaster between the Republicans, the Democrats, Insurance Companies, and the medical industry (See Full Story). Now she's going international with that negotiation style? To me, the political animal, Barack Obama, made the Hillary choice for all the wrong domestic reasons and without considering the importance of having a tactful handler in foreign affairs.

What ever happens, the next four years could be very exciting and, hopefully, not disastrous.

The Iran Factor

Oil "had been" falling nicely over worldwide recession fears. In fact, it fell more than $9 a barrel in two days. Then, Iran tested 9 long and medium range missiles. In responses, oil jumped again.

Over the last 3 years, my guess is that at least 60% of the rise in the price of oil has been a direct result of Iran's actions and words. The balance of that rise has been due to rebel activity in Nigeria and the threats to cutoff oil to United States by Venezuela and the falling value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies.

Just think about it. Today, oil prices jumped on Iran's missile tests. Last week, oil prices were, again, somewhat stabilizing and, then, Iran threatened shipping in the Straits of Hormuz and that potential was seen as cutting off 40% of the world's oil from delivery. Then, there have been all the verbal threats against Israel and the United States. Almost a week doesn't go by and, like clockwork, where Iran causes oil to pop.

Iran's economy is almost entirely based on oil. The world market for prayer rugs and fanaticism just doesn't have a worldwide economic appeal! So, if they can pump up the price of oil, they can get more cash to flow into their country. Because oil is so important to their economy, any disruption in selling it to the world would actually hurt them in the process. So, I think a lot of this bellicose talk is all a game to increase the oil revenues for themselves. (Note: This is not to say that anyone should ever underestimate their fanaticism and their hatred and desire to destroy Israel; should they get their hands on working nukes!) They, like Pavlov's dogs tests, have learned that all their "big talk" causes oil traders to salivate and run to buy oil; speculate; and, drive prices up. It's a game and the West is too stupid to see. In the mean time, the entire world is suffering in the wake of this game. If oil supplies weren't so tight, Iran wouldn't be able to play this "hand of doom" gambit that they have going. But, we and the rest of the World are knee-deep in foreign imported oil and are too stupid to do what is necessary to put an end to it. We're too busy fighting a possible ghost of a reality called Global Warming.

Once and for all, we need to get this monkey off our backs. We need more production and a strategy to abandon our increasing dependence on this "volatile" commodity. Except for Mexico and Canada, we are totally dependent on the stability of the most unstable countries of the world for our energy needs. How insane is that! And, our government just keeps committing us to more of that insanity as both time and their inaction continues on. Where is crazy Susan Powter when you really need her. Stop the Insanity!