Why Only 24% Younger Signups In ObamaCare Might Be Worse Than You Think

According to Health and Human Services, the current health exchange pricing of monthly premiums is based on the assumption that 38% of those enrolled would be young and healthy individuals between the ages of 18 and 34.  Otherwise, the costs would necessarily jump because there won't be enough healthy people to offset the cost of covering the older and sicker of our population.

When the latest enrollment numbers were released, we learned that only 24% of the enrollees were in that critical younger healthier group; a near 40% shortfall.  Opponents of ObamaCare jumped on this because they know, logically, it means that the current ObamaCare premiums will have to be adjusted upwards by about a whopping 40% unless this situation is improved.

But, that 24% might be a lot worse than you think. What if that 24% isn't a healthy young group?  What if it is mostly made up of younger people or younger families with serious pre-existing conditions?  Right now, there are about 73.7 million Americans who are in that age group. According to Families USA,  at least 15.9% of those millions of Americans -- or about 12 million people -- have serious enough health conditions that they are either not insurable or prohibitively too costly to insure.  So, easily, the less than 1 million youth signups into ObamaCare thus far could have actually come out of that 12 million who are sicker.  If so, we're not just looking at a 40% increase.  In fact, the current exchange pricing could be actually doubled next year.


References:

ObamaCare Resorts To Gimmicks To Get Young To Sign On: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/022514-691159-obamacare-needs-young-enrollees-but-isnt-getting-them.htm

Pre-Existing Conditions: A Problem that Grows with Age: http://www.familiesusa.org/resources/publications/reports/health-reform/pre-ex-conditions-findings.html

So How Many Millennials are there?: http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/topics/demographics/so-how-many-millennials-are-there-in-the-us-anyway-30401/

Is ObamaCare Already Suffering From Old Age?

By March 2014, ObamaCare will reach a tender age of 4, but, due to its own ineptness, this near 4 year old already seems to be suffering from old age.  That's because, in order for it to be cost effective, 40% of the people enrolled in the program's exchanges had to be between the ages of 28 and 34.  However, recently released data shows that only 24% of the enrollees are in that much-needed young adult category.  This, then, means that 76% of those enrolled in the program are of the older and surely sicker types; and, because of this, the exchanges are sure to run at heavy losses this year.  Losses that will, also as part of the law, be fully covered by the federal government.  Essentially, ObamaCare has an old age problem.

This is no surprise to those who know how ineptly ObamaCare was slammed together.

First of all, ObamaCare, itself, undermined the 18 to 34 year old targets by saying that children, up to age 26, can stay on their parents health plans; theoretically slicing this pool of valued young adults in half. And, it doesn't matter if these  "under-26 children" are living with their parents or living on the moon; or, whether or not they are single or married. 

Further, ObamaCare set the penalty for not buying insurance so low that it actually becomes a disincentive to buying insurance in the exchanges.  Especially since most healthy young adults already know that, if they do get sick, they can simply go to the emergency room of any hospital that takes Medicare patients and they will be treated; regardless of their ability to pay or not.  This is guaranteed by another law that was passed in the 1980's: The Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (aka. EMTALA).  And, if they do get seriously sick, the "pre-existing conditions" mandate under the law makes sure that no insurance company can deny them coverage; and, at a very reasonable rate, mind you.

My guess is that the only 18-34's that are signing up for health insurance in the exchanges are those getting hefty subsidies from Uncle Sam. Otherwise...fuggeddaboutit.

References:

Too Few Young Adults Enrolled In ObamaCare: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/01/14/numbers-key-obamacare-demographic-group-come-in-well-below-estimates/

New York Times: Rules Let Youths Stay On Parents Plans: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/health/policy/11health.html