John Kasich is Delusional

To date, there have been 41 contests (primaries, caucuses, and conventions) in the States, territories, and District of Columbia, that awarded delegates for the GOP nomination at the convention in Cleveland, Ohio later this year.  However, in 26 of those contests, John Kasich has walked away with zero delegates, giving him a loss percentage of 63%.  In three of those contests, he only mustered 1 per contest.  After all that, he is still behind Marco Rubio  -- 171 to 143 -- who has been out of the race for weeks.  Furthermore, there aren't enough delegates left for Kasich win the requisite 1237  to win the nomination; especially when you take into account that he usually runs dead last behind Trump and Cruz in most polls for the remaining states.  The only reason he's running in second place in New York is because of Ted Cruz's "New York values" dis at a debate.  Even so, Kasich can only muster 20-22%  compared to 72% for Trump and Cruz combined.

What does this say about someone who still thinks he's going to win the nomination? In my opinion it speaks volumes about his character and mental state.  While I could use a lot of terms to describe Kasich, let's just leave it as delusional.

References:

Election 2016 — Republican Delegate Count: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

New York Republican Presidential Primary Polling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html

Religion and Why Cruz Can't Win the Presidency

One of the reasons that I, as a conservative, personally don't think that either Ted Cruz or John Kasich are going to win the general election is because they are both too religious in a society that has become less and less so.

For example, previously, I have criticized Kasich for expanding Medicaid in Ohio because it is a broken system, and expanding it will only make hospital and doctor availability worse for the current base who is already having difficulty in that area.  Yet, Kasich, in defending his actions as Governor of Ohio, said simply "read the bible".   Thus, he demonstrated that religion overruled logic and common sense on his Medicaid expansion decision.

The same is true with Cruz.

Recently, in a town hall interview with Fox's Megyn Kelly, Cruz said that Roe v. Wade is not settled law.  Thus he implied it could be overturned.  My problem with that is, in this country, one of the guiding principles of our legal system is "stare decisis".  In Latin, it basically means that [prior] decisions stand.  Otherwise, we would be continually re-litigating the same issues over and over again.  Thus, Roe v. Wade has become the "stare decisis" for abortion in this country.  As a lawyer, Cruz has to know this; but, in order to garner evangelical votes, he lies.  He also has to know that the only real way Roe v. Wade can be overturned is through an Amendment to the Constitution; which has a very high hurdle rate to effect passage.  Now, this is not to say that the nation's highest court can't reverse itself, but it is a tricky process requiring another case that would shed new light on the prior decision having precedence.

Further, he implied that, in banning abortion, there would be no exceptions for rape [or, I guess, incest] by saying this:

"When it comes to rape, rape is a horrific crime against the humanity of a person, and needs to be punished and punished severely..." "But at the same time, as horrible as that crime is, I don't believe it's the child's fault."

Once, again, this is a personal religious belief that is not consistent with our society as a whole.  In polling since 1975, Gallup has found that only about one-in-five Americans share it.  And, consistently, since the 1990's, more than half of those polled believe that abortion should be legal under any circumstance.

If Cruz gets the nomination, Hillary or any other Democrat will beat him over the head with his stand on abortion; with this issue just re-enforcing the GOP's  so-called "war on women" narrative.  Additionally, his stand on abortion will be seen as extreme by most of the nation.  And, I am sure that legal experts will also way in against him.

References:

John Kasich Tells Critics Of Medicaid Expansion To Read The Bible: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-kasich-bible-medicaid_us_56140a54e4b022a4ce5fb1e3

Ted Cruz in Wisconsin: Roe v. Wade not settled, ban abortion with no exceptions: http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/ted-cruz-in-wisconsin-roe-v-wade-not-settled-ban/article_28a2deb5-c488-583e-b4ee-5da06f2f1b3e.html

[now-Chief Justice] Roberts Testifies Roe v. Wade is "Settled As a Precedent" But Refuses to Say Whether He Would Reverse Abortion Ruling: http://www.democracynow.org/2005/9/14/roberts_testifies_roe_v_wade_is

10 Overturned Supreme Court Cases | HowStuffWorks: http://money.howstuffworks.com/10-overturned-supreme-court-cases.htm 

Ted Cruz and Pastors Smite Donald Trump in Wisconsin: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/06/ted-cruz-pours-fuel-on-trumpster-fire-with-a-little-help-from-god.html 

Gallup polling on abortion: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

Kasich is Dead Wrong on Small Business Job Creation

Time and time again, when I listen to John Kasich, he is simply factually incorrect.  For example, in a recent stump speech, he said small businesses creates most of the jobs in this country (see lengthy video link below). The problem is that was only true when I took economics in the 1970's.  Ever since then, large businesses such as Target, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, etc. have been the primary job creators in America; often at the expense of many small businesses. For example, the following chart prepared from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that most of the job creation and employment had come from large companies over the 21-year period from 1990 to 2011.

When someone starts a small business, generally only a few jobs are created.  For example, if someone starts a Karate instruction school or a tanning salon, usually, the owner is the only employee. Even if the business grows over time, maybe only one or two instructors or salon employees will be added over time. However, when Wal-Mart opens a super-center, more than 300 people are instantly employed.  A single McDonalds would add more than 60 workers.

There is another problem with small businesses:  The rate of failure.  In the first year, one in every four new businesses fail.  By year four, 50% of new businesses will have been kicked to the curb, and by the end of 10 years, only 29% of new businesses will be left standing.  In other words, 71% of the jobs created by small businesses will be gone at the end of 10 years.

The biggest reason for failure (49%) is incompetence;  with an additional 30%  due to the lack of managerial experience. With this in mind, I would really like to know what steps Kasich could take to somehow legislate human failings out of existence and minimize job losses at the small business level.

The reality, is that the focus of job creation should be providing a better environment for large corporations.  Lower our world's highest corporate tax rate.  Minimize or eliminate international trade barriers.  Allow corporations to return the more than $2 trillion in overseas profits that are just parked there to avoid paying additional U.S. taxes.  This way, instead of using that money to build their businesses in other countries, those profits would be a major cash infusion into our own economy.  Lastly, we have to improve our educational system so that we don't have to import millions of workers to fill high-paying, science-technology-engineering-math (STEM) jobs through the work visa programs. 

References:

Video: Kasich: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA9BTE4fJxs

Chart Source: Getting Straight on Small Business Job Creation: Firms vs. Establishments: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-bernstein/small-business-job-creation_b_1685869.html

Startup Business Failure Statistics: http://www.statisticbrain.com/startup-failure-by-industry/

Big U.S. firms hold $2.1 trillion overseas to avoid taxes: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax-offshore-idUSKCN0S008U20151006

37 percent of Silicon Valley foreign-born: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/37-percent-of-silicon-valley-foreign-born/article/2583195

John Kasich's Silly "St. Peter" Complex on Medicaid

In the first GOP primary debate, many believe this response by GovernorJohn Kasich on Medicaid expansion in Ohio, hit the ball out of the park:

Unfortunately, Kasich's 3-point justification is so off the tracks it's almost laughable.

The implication that 10,000 mentally ill inmates in his prison system wouldn't be there if they simply had Medicaid is a ridiculous assumption and impossible to prove.  The biggest problem with the seriously mentally ill is anosognosia. In other words, they don't think that they are sick, won't seek treatment, or take medication.  In this country, 55% of the mentally ill suffer from anosognosia.

Then, there's the rationale that Medicaid somehow helps the 80% of the prison population who are drug addicted.  Here's what HealthCare.gov says about that:

 "If you’re incarcerated you can use the Marketplace to apply for Medicaid coverage in your state. Medicaid won’t pay for your medical care while you’re in prison or jail. But if you enroll in Medicaid while you’re incarcerated you may be able to get needed care more quickly after you’re released."

Are we also supposed to believe that 80% of Ohio's prison population is being treated for drug addiction and being released back into the general population?

In his final justification, Kasich claimed that expansion of Medicaid will reduce emergency room usage.  This is flat wrong and is right out of the Democrats playbook.  Study after study has shown that more Medicaid patients increase emergency room usage. Oregon, expanded Medicaid on their own and emergency room usage went up 40%.  A Colorado Hospital Association study found that, in states that expand Medicaid, emergency room access was up 5.6%. In those that didn't expand, the increase was just 1.8%.

The simple truth is that Medicaid is a broken system because it pays doctors and hospitals just pennies on the dollar for the care they provide.  As a result, fewer and fewer accept Medicaid patients.  A 2014 Merritt-Hawkins study showed that just 45.7% of doctors in five different specialties in 15 markets accepted Medicaid patients.  This is a notable drop from 55.4% in 2009 and, because those patients can't find a convenient doctor, they wind up using the closer emergency rooms.

Expanding Medicaid, hurts the poor because the number of doctors who will see them  gets smaller by the day.  As a result, they need to travel further for their care.  That is, if they can even afford to travel to see a doctor.  Is this was St. Peter really wants, Mr Kasich?  You and other Governors should fix Medicaid before dumping more people into it.

Lastly, he said that Ronald Reagan expanded Medicaid three times.  So, he did.  But, at that time reimbursement rates for treatment were very near the costs being incurred.  Today, doctors and hospitals are paid an average of 56 cents on every dollar.

References:

Morning Joe Panel: Kasich's Debate Performance 'Reaganesque', Medicaid Answer 'Best of the Entire Night': http://newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/connor-williams/2015/08/07/morning-joe-panel-kasichs-debate-performance-reaganesque

John Kasich: GOP debate winner?: http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/08/06/kasich-record--attack/31256837/

Anosognosia and Medication Noncompliance: http://mentalillnesspolicy.org/medical/medication-noncompliance.html

Doctors Face A Huge Medicare And Medicaid Pay Cut In 2015: http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2015/01/05/doctors-face-a-huge-medicare-and-medicaid-pay-cut-in-2015/ 

Obamacare's Medicaid Expansion Is Nothing to Brag About: http://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2015/01/26/obamacares-medicaid-expansion-is-nothing-to-brag-about/

2014 Survey: Physician Appointment Wait Times and Medicaid and Medicare Acceptance Rates: http://www.merritthawkins.com/uploadedFiles/MerrittHawkings/Surveys/mha2014waitsurvPDF.pdf

HealthCare.gov Incarcerated People: https://www.healthcare.gov/incarcerated-people/