The VA Scandal Shouldn't Be A Surprise And It Portends The Future With ObamaCare

For decades, liberal politicians have pushed for a complete government takeover of this nation's healthcare system.  However, the general population of Americans and their representative politicians wanted nothing to do with that.  They understood that a government run healthcare system would have all the typical problems -- waste, fraud, abuse, and heavy handedness -- relative to every government run system. But, despite the wishes of most Americans, the Democrats and Barack Obama went ahead and passed ObamaCare into law.  In 2010, they were punished for such action with a sweeping defeat that reversed their majority rule in the House of Representatives.  Now, in 2014, their control of the Senate is in jeopardy again, thanks to ObamaCare.  The botched rollout; the cancellations; and, the fact that people were losing their doctors and hospitals while paying higher prices for their insurance re-emphasized why most Americans dreaded any government involvement in their healthcare. 

While still trying to distance themselves from ObamaCare and all its problems, several in-jeopardy Senate Democrats find themselves with another reason for their voters to oust them in the Fall.  Again, because of healthcare.  This time it's the VA hospital wait-list scandal; proving once more how crass and incompetent a government-run system can be.  Our veterans have literally died in the process of waiting, but, this wait-time scandal should not be a surprise. It is a common problem wherever the government is controlling healthcare.

In Britain, they have a fully socialized system called the National Health Service (NHS). The Democrats love to point to the NHS as a perfect example because it is universal and because it has been able to control costs. It has the lowest cost-per-capita of any other industrialized country in the world.  But, the penalty for such cost control is long wait times and, in some cases, results in death.

The very charter of the NHS legally guarantees that a patient should be able to get advanced care (access to specialists, surgery, hospitalization, or advanced testing) in no less than 18 weeks (nearly 4-1/2 months) after being referred by a primary care physician; access to which is, in itself,  an average wait of about one week.  The usual wait time for surgery is 15 weeks or just over 3-1/2 months with over 500 patients at any given time waiting longer than a year.  If you're injured, the typical wait is 4 hours in the emergency room.  Of course, if you are dying and you just can't wait, the NHS says you can always pay out-of-pocket for private access to any healthcare provider.  Maybe these are the reasons that Britain trails the rest of the world in cancer survival rates.  Now, despite all these problems, the Brits seem to love their NHS.  I  don't think most Americans would be so forgiving.

Now, you don't actually have to go to Britain to see long wait times as a result of government control.  In this country we have the literal blueprint of ObamaCare in the state of Massachusetts. It is something that is informally called RomneyCare.  Thanks to that healthcare system, a city like Boston has the longest wait times in the country for both seeing a primary care physician or receiving advanced care:

In the very place that Americans railed against government intervention in their lives in what we know today as the Boston Tea Party, Bostonians now wait, on average, 45.4 days to see a primary care physician and another 66 days for advanced care.  Thus as a blueprint for ObamaCare, RomneyCare is also the blueprint for what is happening at the VA and in Britain.

The primary reason for long wait times is because the profit incentive is missing.   Healthcare service providers in the NHS are all being paid by the government at a set salary for their particular skill level, and they will always be paid the same; no matter how many patients they see or don't see.  The same is true in the VA hospital system.  Also, in both systems, physicians and hospitals are themselves shielded from malpractice lawsuits because the government is held responsible.  Thus, if someone dies as a result of care being delayed, the doctors and administrators have no liability.  Now, this is not to say that there aren't caring and dedicated people in both the NHS or the VA, but the healthcare in these government run facilities can't hold a candle to the average non-government system in this country.

References:

Your rights in the NHS: Guide to NHS waiting times: http://www.nhs.uk/choiceintheNHS/Rightsandpledges/Waitingtimes/Pages/Guide%20to%20waiting%20times.aspx

NHS waiting lists are at highest for 6 years with 2.8m waiting for surgery or other hospital procedures: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2607418/NHS-waiting-lists-highest-6-years-2-8m-waiting-surgery-hospital-procedures.html

Patients will wait at least a week to see GP in 2014, it is claimed: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/nhs/10537094/Patients-will-wait-at-least-a-week-to-see-GP-in-2014-it-is-claimed.html

NHS delays operations 'as it waits for patients to die or go private': http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8668906/NHS-delays-operations-as-it-waits-for-patients-to-die-or-go-private.html

Britain trails in cancer survival rates: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-125860/Britain-trails-cancer-survival-rates.html
 
In cities, the average doctor wait-time is 18.5 days: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/29/in-cities-the-average-doctor-wait-time-is-18-5-days/

Malpractice Payouts to U.S. Veterans Reach 12-Year High: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/malpractice-payouts-to-u-s-veterans-reach-12-year-high.html

Will ObamaCare Push Us Into Another Recession In 2014?

No one can actually predict when a recession will occur or how long it will last.  But, in more than 150 years of tracking our economy, recessions have occurred, on average, every 5 years.  In more modern times, they have tended to occur every 6 to 7 years; and, we are already 6 years and almost 2 months past the start of the last one in December of 2007.

Most recessions occur when inflation outpaces the rate at which the average consumer's disposable incomes increase; forcing most to pull back on buying any or all non-essential goods and services. Thus, the economy contracts.  Other times, however, recessions are spawned by some major, economic-impacting event such as the Crash of '29, the OPEC Oil embargo, 9/11, or, most recently, the burst of the housing bubble.

Thanks to PolitiFact, we have a nice scorecard on Obama for things like the growth in disposable income and inflation.  According to that report, disposable incomes, after falling in 2009, rose 1.5% from 2009 to May 2012; a yearly average of  only six-tenths of one percent (.6%).  At the same time, overall inflation averaged 2.7%; or, 4-1/2 times faster than disposable incomes. More importantly, essential items like food and gasoline have risen much faster than overall inflation. 

Click on image to zoom

So, it is apparent that a primary cause of any recession -- inflation faster than wage growth -- has been firmly in place since 2009.

But, another significant economic-impacting event -- the continued roll-out of ObamaCare -- is hovering like a black cloud over this already weak economy; and, it is a "cloud" that is already causing a slowdown in hiring and wages to lag even further.  According to the recent December jobs report, only 74,000 jobs were created; the lowest in three years.  But, more importantly, during the 3-months that ObamaCare was being rolled out, the average hourly wage only increased by about a quarter of one percent; from $24.11 in October to $24.17 in December.  That was half as fast as the rate at which wages rose in the first 9 months of the year.  Is this because of ObamaCare or just a coincidence?

I guess we'll have to wait until January 30 when the GDP report for the fourth quarter comes out to see if the October roll out of ObamaCare hurt economic growth.  If it is substantially less than the projected 2.5% growth, we could be seeing the start of another recession. Further, the U.S. stock markets are tumbling on a assumed slow-down in world economic activity.


References:

Politifact's Obama Economic Scorecard: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2012/jun/01/scorecard-economy-obama/

December Employment Report, Table 3-B, Average Hourly Earnings: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm

 Econbrowser: Recession in 2006-07?: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/08/recession_in_20.html