Pope Francis' Catholic Problem On Global Warming

Some people refer to Catholics as a flock shepherded by its Pope.  But, when it comes to Pope Francis' stand on global warming, the flock may need some extra herding to come around.

Just a day before the Pope released his encyclical on climate change and global warming, Pew Research released the results of a poll asking Democrat, Republican, and Independent Catholics about their stands on the issue.

When asked if the earth is getting warmer, 71% of all Catholics said "yes". This is higher than the general population where only 68% believe that warming exists, but below that 71%, the breakdown between political affiliations of Catholics tells a varied story.  The primary reason that the number of Catholics believing in the earth's warming is higher then the general public is because 85% of Catholic Democrats say it's so.  On the other hand, only 51% of Catholic Republicans believe it to be the case.  72% of Independents sided more closely with the Democrats by saying 'yes' on warming.

Where Catholics really go off the rails against the Pope is on the question as to whether global warming is man-made and whether its a serious problem.

As far as whether global warming is man-made, 62% of Democrats, 48% of Independents, and 24% of Republicans agree.  Overall, only 47% of Catholics believe the warming of the earth is due to man's activities.  At the same time, considering it to be a serious problems had almost identical results.  Again, it was the Democrats that showed the most concern (64%).

These numbers wouldn't be so bad if most Catholics were Democrats, but, here too, the Pope loses. As this chart from Pew shows, white Catholic political affiliations have become increasingly more Republican while, I assume, Blacks and Hispanics have remained more solidly Democrats:

The bottom line is that Catholics as a whole aren't buying the whole global warming thing because, like the general population, the climate change alarmists have over predicted the impending disasters, and the Pope's encyclical is just more of the same. Because of this, I don't think its going to move the needle very much as far as how many Catholics are embracing climate change.

References:

PewResearch: Catholics Divided Over Global Warming: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/06/16/catholics-divided-over-global-warming/

PewResearch: Politics by Religious Affiliation: http://www.pewforum.org/2012/02/02/trends-in-party-identification-of-religious-groups-affiliation/

Pope Francis, in Sweeping Encyclical, Calls for Swift Action on Climate Change: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/19/world/europe/pope-francis-in-sweeping-encyclical-calls-for-swift-action-on-climate-change.html

A 2016 Challenge For Both Political Parties. Especially Republicans!

There are a lot of right leaning media types who believe, like Senator Ted Cruz, that the next Republican nominee for president should be solidly conservative and not center right;  otherwise they will lose in 2016.  In support of that argument, they point to the past losses by moderates such as John McCain and Mitt Romney.  But, this chart from Gallup says that the country is becoming more and more moderate:

Since the late 80's,  Republican party affiliation has fallen from 34% to just 25% in 2013.  The Democrats, too, have lost members; falling from 36% to 31%, but that is only a fraction of the Republican losses.  The big class winner in all of this has been the people who now call themselves Independents; rising from 34% to today's 42%.   Obviously, moderate Democrats and Republicans are leaving their respective parties and, in doing so, they are saying that they reject some of their party's ideals and platforms.

The chart above represents the averages for each given year.  What Gallup found by taking 2013 in isolation follows in this remarkable chart:

In just one year, nearly half of all American voters have identified themselves as moderates.  At the same time, this means that the remaining membership of both parties have become more extreme in their ideologies; having lost the moderates.

Because of this, each party will have to appeal to the middle in 2016.  While, at the same time, not offend its remaining base which may not come out to vote if the party platform is too moderate. That's quite the challenge for any politician.

The worst thing that Republicans could do is to try to appeal to their ever marginalized and more extreme base while ignoring the growing number of Independents.  For that reason, I think the conservative media types are wrong with their assessment that the next nominee for the Republican party should be staunchly conservative. 

References: 

Gallup: Record-High 42% of Americans Identify as Independents: http://www.gallup.com/poll/166763/record-high-americans-identify-independents.aspx

Ted Cruz in South Carolina: Nominate a conservative in 2016, or Democrats will win: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/19/ted-cruz-south-carolina-nominate-conservative-2016/?
 
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Dewey Wins?

In the history of this country, there is one election, Truman vs. Dewey, where the underdog truly became the come-back-kid. By that election day, the final Gallup polling had Dewey 5 full points ahead of Truman. The whole country thought that Truman was doomed to lose. In fact, one of the most famous pictures in political history is Truman holding a copy of the "Chicago Daily Tribune" that was erroneously published and declares: "Dewey Defeats Truman" (Click to see this historical Associated Press photo).

Early last week, John McCain aptly declared himself the underdog. Certainly, the polls reflect that fact with Barack Obama leading by as much as 14 points, nationally. Some projected Electoral Map calculations show Obama with over 300 electoralvotes, with only 270 needed to win. Even I, just a couple of weeks ago, said that this economic disaster may have given Obama the win.

However, there is a possibility that John McCain, like Truman, may win this.

The Obama campaign has targeted the "youth" voters from day one. But, the younger voter is the most historically unpredictable. If Obama has a significant lead, these less dedicated "youths" might just skip going to the polls. If enough think that way, it could swing this in John McCain's direction. Actually, some might not go to the polls no matter what is happening in the polling.

Through the most recent polling results, we know that the "undecided" voters are between 7 and 16 percent; depending on the polling source you look at. If, for some reason, John McCain can sway those votes in the final hours, it could spell a win. Usually, though, this group of voters tends to follow the general polling. But, there are so many open issues about Obama and his past that the undecided's might not feel comfortable with that uncertainty. Some might not be comfortable with "completely" turning over all of the reins of government to the Democrats. Others might be concerned about the effects of being too liberal in an economic crisis. A two or three percent swing of the undecideds McCain's way could really change the results of this election. It should be noted that independents have been somewhat moving away from Obama in the last few days.

Then, of course, there is the possibility of the Bradley Effect. Basically, this is a documented trend by voters saying in polls that they will vote for the black candidate and, then, vote to the contrary when pulling the lever in the hidden confines of the voting booth. The "effect" is generally believed to have resulted from whites not wanting to look like racists when directly confronted by a pollster. Ironically, it can also be some blacks that don't want to appear to be voting against a black person because they might look like an "Uncle Tom". Historians have documented this effect to be as much as 6 percent. If Obama has less than a 6 percent lead over McCain, and this "effect" actually happens, McCain could pull this off.

This election, more than any other, has people looking at one candidate because of his "promises" rather than his past actions. This election has also become a media driven election for a variety of reasons that include making history. However, what happens in the privacy of the voting booth might not be what the polls are saying. It might not be what our mainstream media wants to happen. While it is hard to imagine John McCain wining with such a completely weak outlook according to the Electoral Maps, there is always the possibility of a repeat of the Dewey/Truman contest. But, who really knows? Even Obama, himself, expressed his concern over losing when he said "Don't Underestimate Our Ability to Screw it Up" (See Full Story). During the primaries, time after time, Hillary Clinton had substantially better performances on primary day against Barack Obama than the polls were saying. The same just might happen to Obama against McCain.

I just think this election may be the most interesting in our history, and if McCain does have a shot at winning, it could be a very, very, long night and a very, very, close election. If McCain does win, expect Obama's lawyers to be unleashed across this country like a massive herd of wild mustangs. This election could make Gore v. Bush look like legal amateur night in comparison to what could happen between McCain and Obama.