A Tale of Two Stories: Obama's Job Approval

Democrats were ecstatic that a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that Barack Obama left office with a 60% approval rating; placing him 4th behind Roosevelt, Clinton, and Reagan.

Similarly, the Gallup organization gave him a 59% approval rating at the end of his second term.  However, in the  "average" of polls over his two terms in office, the results were not as bright.  On average, his rating was 47.9%,  placing him 4th from the bottom with only Ford, Carter, and Truman having lower ratings.

 I don't know why Barack Obama was able to lift his rating from below 50% before 2016 and then, in the last year, gain 10 percentage points.  From a weak economy to violence on our streets and significant world disorder (especially in Syria), nothing saw a marked improvement to warrant that change.  Certainly, the results of this year's elections, nation-wide, didn't reflect a strong approval for either Obama or his Democratic policies.  If that were true, Hillary Clinton would be President.

References:

President Obama is leaving office on a very high note: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/18/obama-climbs-to-60-percent-approval-in-final-presidential-approval-rating-post-abc-poll-finds/?utm_term=.bb54d801599e

Obama Averages 47.9% Job Approval as President: http://www.gallup.com/poll/202742/obama-averages-job-approval-president.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

After "Locker Room Talk", Will Trump Call It Quits?

Unless you're living under a rock, I doubt very seriously that anyone hasn't heard of Trump's disgusting hot mic talk about women.  I don't think apologies are going to work and any fence sitters have probably shifted to Hillary because they had to be offended by his comments.  He should quit.  But, if he does, I seriously think Hillary would be in trouble.  Anyone else that the Republicans could come up with could beat her.  That's because, as terrible a candidate that Trump is, she is struggling to maintain a lead.   Hillary should pray that Trump doesn't quit.

Reference: Trump recorded having extremely lewd conversation about women in 2005: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-recorded-having-extremely-lewd-conversation-about-women-in-2005/2016/10/07/3b9ce776-8cb4-11e6-bf8a-3d26847eeed4_story.html

The Confounding Mr. Trump

The fact that Donald Trump is now the presumptive winner of the Republican nomination has confounded political experts and political junkies for weeks.  Even the prognosticator extraordinaire, Nate Silver, has had to admit he underestimated "The Donald".  Even so, no one believed that Trump would ever stand a chance at beating Hillary.  After all, the polling was always in her favor against the supposed Muslim-Mexican-women-hating businessman.

However, once again, Trump is defying gravity.  In two separate polls, just days apart,  Rasmussen and Fox News found he is beating Hillary Clinton nationally.  By 5 points in the Rasmussen poll; and by 3 points in the Fox poll. Now, the latest ABC/Washington Post has him 2 points ahead. Thus, Trump now leads in 3 of the last 5 polls.

Click on Image to Enlarge

The real question then becomes: Is Trump's lead more about the acceptance of Trump or more about the weakness of Hillary?  Given Bernie Sanders' good performances in the primaries against her, I think the latter is probably true. Simply, she was a weak
candidate against Obama; and, now looks to be weakening against Trump. Don't ever underestimate Hillary's ability to lose.

References:

Nate Silver: How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter

NATE SILVER: Screwed up on Donald Trump - Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-pundit-donald-trump-2016-5

Rasmussen Reports: White House Watch: Trump 42%, Clinton 37%: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/18/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-both-seen-as-deeply-flawed-candidates.html

Polls: Clinton vs. Trump: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Has Donald The Bully, Peaked?

Trump is a bully. In addition, he's an adolescent one who focuses on peoples physical characteristics as a way of diminishing them.  He said Perry wore glasses to make himself look smart.  He said Ben Carson made Jeb Bush look like the Energizer Bunny.  The highly acclaimed neurosurgeon was just an "OK" doctor. Megan Kelly was nothing special. Then, his "coup de grace" was telling people to look at Carly Fiorina's face and implying that someone with a face like hers couldn't be President.

Well, I think this kind of bullying is taking its toll.  The recent Real Clear average of the  now has Trump at just 24%.  Down from 30% in the previous 4 polls.

I think people are finally getting tired of Trump's bullying and this may be the beginning of the end for the Republican front runner.

Reference: Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html#polls

Why Trump Is So Popular: It's the Economy, Stupid!

Many think that Bill Clinton became President and beat George H.W. Bush in 1992 because of a single catch phrase: "It's the economy stupid!".   That may be true since the economy had slipped into recession under Bush.

While we are not in a recession -- at least not yet -- most people feel that we are.  In poll after poll, Americans again are saying that the economy and jobs are the number one national priority; well ahead of anything else such as immigration.

What people see in Trump is his success in business.  A man who can create jobs and get things done.  He tells it like it is.  We're right back to "it's the economy, stupid" all over again.  A recent Gallup poll supports this with 56% of Republicans; 35% of Independents; and even 16% of Democrats saying he would do a good job with the economy.

Simply, this is why Trump is doing so well against his rivals.  He is the only one of those 17 GOP candidates who is a successful businessman.  A multi-billionaire.  While, Carly Fiorina was also a business person, many know and remember how she had to be let go as CEO from Hewlett-Packard; a scar on her record.  She also wasn't successful in her run against Barbara Boxer for California's U.S. Senate seat.  Another scar.

Trump may fade but, for now, people seem to think he would be a strong leader on the very issue they consider to be "the" priority.


References:

It's the economy stupid!: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid

Polling Report: Priorities: http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm

Trump Stronger on Economy Than Foreign Affairs, Immigration:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/184166/trump-stronger-economy-foreign-affairs-immigration.aspx

Americans Don't Share Feinstein's (and Obama's) Outrage Over CIA Torture

Democrats are still trying to understand why they lost so big in November's elections.   I think the answer is simple:  Americans don't share the extreme liberal viewpoints of the Democrat party.

A perfect example, was the partisan Torture Report that Senator Dianne Feinstein  released a week ago.  In three new polls, Americans say that what the CIA did was necessary when put in the context of 9/11. 

In a PEW poll, 51% say torture was justified and only 43% thought the report should have been released.

A Washington Post/ABC poll showed an even more dramatic difference with 59% in support of the CIA interrogations; while only 31% agreed with Feinstein.  Then, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 28% believed that the interrogations "went too far and were wrong."  On the other hand, 51% supported what was done.

Lastly, the NJ.com (New Jersey.com) website has been conducting an online poll. While the voting is a small sample and multiple votes are possible, it does show that those being polled don't think that it was appropriate for Feinstein to have released the report:

Americans get it.  Given what happened on 9/11, our government should have done everything possible, within reason, to protect us, and in the minds of most Americans, enhanced interrogations were within reason.

References:

PEW Research: About Half See CIA Interrogation Methods as Justified: http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/15/about-half-see-cia-interrogation-methods-as-justified/

Washington Post/ABC Poll: New poll finds majority of Americans believe torture justified after 9/11 attacks: http://www.daily-journal.com/news/local/new-poll-finds-majority-of-americans-believe-torture-justified-after/article_69fb9c64-6aff-52cc-a292-805bf61537d6.html

Americans don't share outrage on CIA techniques: Poll: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102273140

NJ.com: Poll: Should the Senate have released its report on CIA torture?: http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2014/12/poll_should_the_senate_have_released_its_report_on_cia_torture_during_the_bush_administration.html

The False Narrative That The "Hands up...Don't Shoot" Protesters Are Perpetuating

Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels, once said: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."  I believe that is what is happening as a result of irresponsible black leadership and the "Hands up...Don't Shoot" protests.

In a recent CBS poll, 74% of blacks and 28% of whites believe the police in this country are "too quick to use deadly force".  The problem with that belief is that the statistics don't support it.

Last year there were exactly 320 officer involved killings.  This out of an estimated 13+ million arrests (data estimated because the latest FBI arrest statistics are for 2010).  That's one shooting death for every 40,600 arrests.  Not nearly solid proof that cops are "too quick to use deadly force." At the same time, 105 police officers were killed in 2013.  So, in essence, for every 3 civilian shooting deaths, one officer is killed each year. 

The protests, mostly organized by Al Sharpton, are irresponsible and based on a huge exaggeration of a statistically rare occurrence.  It is even more irresponsible for members of Congress on the House floor, and for their staffers to stand on the Congressional steps with their hands in the air in order to perpetuate the lie.  Worst of all is having America's top cop Eric Holder, and his boss Barack Obama, and the Mayor of America's Largest city Bill DeBlasio, and strengthening and supporting the fantasy.

I don't know what these protestors expect to accomplish, but one thing is sure, they are damaging the character and reputation of our police forces.  Police, who day after day, risk their lives to protect us all.

References:

Joseph Goebbels On the "Big Lie" | Jewish Virtual Library: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Holocaust/goebbelslie.html

Police Too Quick To Use Deadly Force: http://www.pollingreport.com/images/CBS141214.GIF

 List of killings by law enforcement officers in the United States, 2013: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_States,_2013

FBI Statistics: Crime in the United States: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/persons-arrested

Honoring Officers Killed in 2013: http://www.odmp.org/search/year?year=2013

Four Members of Congress Put Their Hands Up in Solidarity With Ferguson Protesters, None Voted to Limit Police Militarization: http://reason.com/blog/2014/12/02/four-members-of-congress-put-their-hands

U.S. Capitol Staffers Raise Hand For Ferguson: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/226862-congressional-staff-walk-out-over-brown-garner-decisions 

On the Economy: Obama Our Used Car Salesman

Americans harbor a negative stereotype of a used car salesmen as someone who will try to sell you a car by emphasizing the positives and hiding those ugly flaws that often turn your shiny new purchase into a lemon. That's what the President did on Thursday, when he began to hype his record on the economy.

While he can talk about all kinds of economic positives since taking office, there is really only one thing that my countrymen use to measure the economy: their paychecks.

And, this is where the Obama-economy falls far short.

In 2009, when the President took office, the median household income was $51,190.  In the latest report, the Census Bureau shows the median household income in 2013 was $51,900 or up just 1.3%.  That's an average increase of only $177 a year.  At the same time, the prices of many of the things we buy have gone through the roof.  Beef, for example, has gone up 56% since 2010.  In fact, most food prices, this year alone, are rising faster than both incomes and inflation.  Additionally, despite a wealth of low-cost natural gas, electricity rates are soaring because of the high cost of adding wind and solar.

This simple fact is why Obama, in poll after poll, gets horrible marks on his handling of the economy.  In a recent Pew poll, respondents only gave the President a 39% approval.  Worse than that was the recent Gallup poll where he only scored a 35% approval on the economy.

Obama appears to be on a fool's errand. He runs around the country, making speech after speech, telling Americans how great the economy is.  People aren't going to buy it because they clearly aren't feeling it.

References:

Obama Touts Economic Gains Under His Watch: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-speak-economy-northwestern-25909807

Household Incomes 2009 and 2010: http://www.census.gov/prod/2011pubs/acsbr10-02.pdf

Five Years Of Recovery Haven’t Boosted The Median Household Income: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/five-years-of-recovery-havent-boosted-the-median-household-income/

Beef prices hit record high: http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/14/news/economy/beef-prices/

As Food Prices Rise, Fed Keeps a Watchful Eye: http://online.wsj.com/articles/as-food-prices-rise-fed-keeps-a-wary-eye-1404672384

Electricity Price Index Soars to New Record at Start of 2014: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/electricity-price-index-soars-new-record-start-2014-us-electricity


Summary of Polls: President Obama and the Obama Administration: http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_ad.htm

Are You Better Off, Today? The Wrong Track Polling Says It All.

Almost every political poll taken contains one critical question: "In your opinion, is the country heading in the right direction?"

To the pollsters, this is generally referred to as the wrong track/right track question. And, nothing is a better indicator as to the feeling of Americans about themselves and the country.  Today, the average of all polls that are followed by Real Clear Politics shows that, by a 2-to-1 margin, Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.  This, to me, is the true answer to the "Are you better of Today" question.  Don't let Obama and his people tell you any differently.

The Real Clear Politics Direction Of Country Polling Results: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

David Axelrod "Seems Very Upset And Very Agitated"

Recently, on MSNBC's Morning Joe show,  there was this discussion:



Let me also say that you can see this attitude in the speeches being given by Obama and Biden. For the President smoothness is being replaced with anger and hardness.  The same is true with Biden.  I personally think that Team Obama is infuriated over the fact that they spent a summer and millions attacking Romney and they have been unable to move the needle in any positive way for themselves, nor have they significantly moved it against Romney.  I also think the Ryan appointment took them all by surprise.  Now, they're being forced to talk about high debt and spending without a resulting improvement in the economy or jobs. 

Obama's Coming Out Is Having Negative Consequences

When the President announced he was in support of gay marriage, I'm sure that the his reelection team thought they had a winner by being able shore up the the liberal base and, at the same time, garner votes from independents.  After all, the polls seem to indicate that a majority of Americans are in support of same-sex marriage.  But, in reality, he may have actually done more harm than good by fracturing that  base.   The New York Times is reporting that several Black pastor's expressed concern over the President's "coming out" on the same-sex marriage issue.  Some even saying that they would not support his reelection.  Then, too, many Catholics -- already at odds with Obama over forced contraception insurance coverage -- are probably further offended by his new stand.  This is especially true for Catholic Latinos.  In fact, gay marriage is at odds with many other religions as well. This is most likely why -- in direct contradiction to the polls -- so many states have successfully banned same-sex marriage when the issue has actually been put to a vote. 

I personally think the same-sex marriage decision was a mistake.  Obama knows this, and this is why, in 2008, when running for the presidency, he said he supported civil unions and not same-sex marriage.
(Click here to see Obama in a Panel Discussion on the topic) This 2008 position was in direct contradiction to his prior support of same-sex marriage when he ran for the U.S. Senate.  It appears that the President's evolving positions are more like a revolving door; coming back to what he actually believed all the time.  But, the crassness of changing positions to simply get votes may also turn some voters off. Especially those who voted for him in 2008 when they were under the false impression that he was against same-sex marriage.

It's Only Puppy Love

In poll after poll, when asked about Obama's handling of specific issues, the respondents typically give this President very low marks.  For, example, only about 25% believe he's doing a good job on the economy.  Generally only about 25% believe he's taking the country in the right direction.  A little more than a third approve of his handling of Iran.  And, only 40% agree with the passage of Obama's signature legislation: ObamaCare.  Yet, when asked that bottom line question on overall job approval, nearly 50% approve of him.

This makes absolutely no sense.  It's irrational to believe that so many dislike what this President is doing on so many fronts and, then, still conclude that they approve of the job he's doing.  Its as if they aren't listening to what they, themselves, are saying. My only explanation for this kind of behavior is that we have a bunch of supposed adults in this country who are all caught up in a bad case of puppy love; silly as it that may seem.

The Arizona Immigration Suit Could Backfire On Obama

In the opinion of most legal analysts, Obama's lawsuit against Arizona looks weak. Obviously, there's more politics involved in this suit than judicial judgment. Many see this move by the Justice Department as an attempt to garner Hispanic votes in the fall. But, that logic just might be as dumb as the lawsuit itself.

First of all, in poll after poll, not less than 60% of Americans support the Arizona law and it seems, once again, Obama is at odds with the general will of the people. While he may win some votes for the Democrats, he and his party just might lose a lot of Independent and swing-voters over this issue. He also seems to forget that, theoretically anyway, illegals can't vote. Further, let's look at some statistics. Only about 1 in every 4.5 Hispanics actually voted in the last election and, of that, 32% of those votes went to McCain and other Republicans.

Secondly, I doubt that all Hispanics favor the lawsuit or, for that matter, illegal immigration. This is especially true for those who came to this country the hard way, by playing by the rules and entering legally. Yesterday, a Colorado poll was released and 62% of Colorado Hispanics actually favored the Arizona Law while, overall, 61% of all Coloradans supported it (Click here to See Story: Poll: 61% of Coloradans want Arizona law here).

Third and lastly, unemployment and the economy will probably be a bigger issue than Arizona's law. Based on the recently released June Jobs Report, Hispanic men are unemployed at a 11.3% rate with that number rising in each of the last three months (Click here to See Report Data). Hispanic women were 11% unemployed and teen Hispanics are jobless at nearly 36%. Those numbers, alone, are good enough reasons for them to reject the economic policies of Obama and the Democrats and decide to vote Republican.

Just maybe, Obama is "acting stupidly" (to use one of his favorite phrases) in bringing this lawsuit against Arizona.

One very last comment. Ever since the Arizona law was passed, the big complaint from the President and the Democrats has been that it is unconstitutional because it would lead to ethnic profiling. However, the lawsuit that was filed never once mentions the issue of racial profiling. Instead, the suit was filed on the basis that the Federal government has sole authority to enforce immigration laws. Profiling can't be an issue because the law, in its own text, clearly forbids it. So, once again, we have Obama's rhetoric being pretty far from the truth. Of course, I would be totally chastised if I stupidly said something like: "He lied!"

Clinton Has It Wrong On Health Care

Back on November 10th, in what was another Clinton-rewrite of history, Bill Clinton urged the Senate Democrats to pass health care reform because history has taught us that "The worst thing to do is nothing." With this statement, he seems to be implying that the Democrats had a sweeping loss of Congress in 1994 because they didn't pass health care reform.

If that was true, the electorate "wouldn't" have punished them by voting them out of office. Instead, the electorate would have given the Democrats more power by electing more of them so that they could have a greater majority. And, they would have punished the Republicans for blocking health care reform. Clinton's belief that Congress flipped from Democrat to Republican because health care didn't pass is blatantly absurd.

Right now, I am starting to see articles being written by left wing opinion writers that seem to suggest Clinton was right. This wishful thinking presumes that the Democrats will maintain control of Congress if health care reform is passed is, again, absurd. It is amazing how lemming-like the left is when they hear a distortion from their former American Idol -- Bill Clinton.

When the Democrats lost Congress, they lost it in the midst of a roaring economy that had it's genesis just before Clinton took office. This Congress is totally mired in high unemployment and rising foreclosures and they have actually done nothing to resolve the situation. The Stimulus Package is a failure. Health Care Reform is starting to look like a three ring circus. Cap and Trade is on shaky ground due to ClimateGate. And, the national debt and the future of high taxation looms big under their watch. The national polls show that this Congress has the least favorable rating in the history of polling. Harry Reid is looking like he's going to be another Democratic Senate Majority Leader -- like Tom Daschle -- to lose his job.

So, why, then, would anyone think that this Congress would be safe by passing health care reform? Given all the political headwinds -- especially on the economy and spending --- it doesn't look so. But, I guess the left can hope. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in what Clinton told the Democratic Senators in November. My guess is that the electorate will severely punish Congress if they pass health care reform in its current form with all the costs and service cuts that are currently known. The polls are already showing a lack of support for Congress' attempt to enact any health care reforms before the economy gets going again. Obviously, this is a change they don't want from either Obama or Congress.

Obama Is Not Popular!

Yesterday, the folks at Gallup reported that Obama sank to a new low approval rating of 47%; with his disapproval rating at a new high of 46%. As the Gallup Report of yesterday points out, no other President, since "their" polling began, had such a low approval rating in their first December since taking office (Click to See Full Report: "After Brief Uptick, Obama Approval Slips to 47%").

This morning, Fox News even took that further and found that no single President in the history of any polling (not just Gallup) had such a low approval rating (Click to See Full Story: "Obama's 47 Percent Approval Lowest of Any President at This Point".

I often hear Democrats and Democratic pundits talk of Obama as being a "popular" President and one who the "people" elected based on his "plans". Well, what might of been true last year, isn't the case now. Obviously, the American people are not buying into his "plans" or the way he is handling his Presidency. And, why should they? In almost every case, Obama "baited" the electorate to get into office with promises he either couldn't or wouldn't keep; with the latter being the primary case. After getting there, he has done nothing but "switch" to a very left wing agenda and the American people aren't happy. That's not my opinion. It's a clear a fact. And, the polls are showing it.

Please note: Almost all of the national polls have Obama at 50% or lower on his approval rating (Click to See the Data from RealClearPoltics). The only ones that are still above 50% are the polls from those media organizations like: CBS, ABC, NBC, and the Associated Press. How special are they? Even the previous Obama-loving CNN has now got him below 50% at a 48% approval rating.

Obama Isn't Just Losing Support In the Polls

For the first time since Obama took office, the majority of political polls now show him at a level that is below a 50% favorability rating -- that theoretical level at which any President can still be considered popular.

But, more than polling, Obama is losing popularity with his own political party. There are some serious chinks starting to appear in what had previously been a strong coalition of Democrats from the very onset of his Presidency. Take this clip for example:



In an indirect rebuke of Obama and his policies, there are now calls from both the political left and right in Congress for Tim Geithner, Obama's Teasury Secretary, to step down (Click to See Full Story: "Geithner, under fire, defends AIG bailout"). The Democratic Congressional Black Caucus is especially upset with the Obama and Geithner policies (Click to See Full Story: "Angry Congress lashes out at Obama") because of the high unemployment rate among blacks -- nearly 16% as compared to 10.2% for the nation as a whole.

From Congress to the American people, Obama is losing our trust in his policies. The left is upset with him because he isn't being far left enough. The political right and middle is losing patience with him because his policies are seen as being too far left and, quite frankly, aren't working; especially with the economy. In my opinion, Obama's biggest problem is that he wants to be all things to all people. And, he can't. He can't have everything both ways. You just can't keep making hollow promises and expect that there won't be consequences.

On Health Care, Obama is Not The Salesman That He Seems to Think He Is

This weekend, Obama blitzkrieg-ed us again on his health care program. He gave 5 separate interviews on some very selected networks. Then, too, he will be the single guest on the Letterman show tonight. This comes after a speech to a joint session of Congress, 4 campaign style rallies, a speech to the AFL-CIO, a 60-Minutes interview, and a variety of impromptu appearances and comments; all about health care.

Somebody should tell this President that he is becoming the Presidential equivalent of the "spam" that we keep getting in our inboxes. And, like that spam, most people wind up ignoring it. It seems like, the more he talks, the less support for health care he gets. Just the opposite of what I'm sure he thinks should happen. He is literally becoming that annoying and pushy used car salesman.

In a recent ABC-Washington Post poll, it was obvious that the voters weren't swayed by his speech on health care reform before a joint session of Congress "POLL: Obama's Speech Doesn't Turn the Tide". While he did get an immediate "approval" bump in those daily polls that were taken after that speech was given, the numbers, now, are back where they were before the speech.

In another poll, the Siegel+Gale Survey, it is obvious that America is still confused about the President's plans for health care. In that poll, contrary to what the President said in his speech, only 16% of those polled thought that ObamaCare wouldn't add a dime to Federal spending. Based on that fact, you can conclude that 83%+ of America didn't believe the President when he said that "my plan" won't add a "single dime" to the deficit. Two-thirds didn't believe that the President was telling the truth about health care reform being paid for by savings found in Medicare fraud and waste.

All of the latest polls are starting to show that this President is just "whistling past the grave yard" on his health care plan. The people aren't buying it and no amount of jaw flapping is going to sell ObamaCare as a viable plan. It seems like a lot of people are doing what I would do when confronted with a "pushy" salesman: Just turnoff and walk away.

As I have had to say all too often before, Obama just doesn't get it!

Obama Gets A Surge In The Gallup Poll

Just so people don't think I am not being fair to Obama, I should report the good as well as the bad when it comes to his Presidency.

In the last two days Obama has had a significant uptick in his polling numbers at Gallup. After having seen a low approval rating of 50% and high disapproval rate 44%, Obama is now sitting with a 55% approval and only 39% disapproval.

I really think that since the White House announced the elimination of the Public Option in health care reform, he has regained some of his lost support. However, it should also be pointed out that I am not seeing the same rebound in the Rasmussen poll; so, Gallup might just be an anomaly. We'll have to wait and see.

Latest Zogby Poll: Only A 45% Approval For Obama

With polls coming fast and furious, its obvious that Obama is sinking as quickly as the polls are being reported. The latest John Zogby poll has him at a 45% approval rating with 51% of those disapproving of his performance (Click to Read the Polling Summary at Zogby International's website). The drop in Obama's approval rating is a full 8 points from the last Zogby poll in July. What should be really disconcerting to Democrats and Obama is the fact that nearly 60% of Independents now disapprove of the President's performance.

This Trend Isn't Obama's Friend!

In the investment world, there's an old saying that the "Trend Is Your Friend." It doesn't matter if it's going up or going down but, if you recognize the trend you will be "out" when the market or a stock is going down or "in" when a stock or the stock market is trending upwards. But, when talking about politics, if you've got a declining trend in your approval rating, that trend is only a friend to your political opponents.

When Obama took office, he had a 65% approval rating when Real Clear Politics took its average of all the major polls at that time (as noted in the interactive chart - above). Similarly, his disapproval score was about 20%. The differential between those who approved of him and those who didn't was a whopping separation of nearly 45%. Further, with only a 20% disapproval rating and a registered Republican base of nearly 30% of the people in the country, it was obvious that about 1/3 of all Republicans had a favorable view of the new President.

Today, you can clearly see that Obama's approval rating is on a precipitous downward slide as evidenced by taking the interactive chart (above) and adding a couple of trend lines to it as shown below:


At the same time, the rise in his disapproval rate is mirroring his decline; but a slightly faster rate.

As noted previously, Obama had a 45 percentile differential in his approval/disapproval scores when he took office. Today, that separation has fallen to just over 13 points.

At the current trend, it looks as if Obama will flip his approval/disapproval ratings in just one to two months from now; assuming that the things that are turning people off about this President continue to rise.

I believe that team Obama is well aware of this and, for that reason, they are literally panic-pushing to get these big items like Cap and Trade and Health Care reform done before the President's composite popularity in all the polls falls below 50% .

(Please note: The latest Rasmussen daily tracking polls now have Obama's approval at only 49% (Click to See Data) and Gallup's daily tracking polls are not far behind at 55% (Click to See that Data)).

The big thing about Obama losing approval is that it opens the door for a reversal of the wins that the Democrats enjoyed in 2006 and 2008. For the Republicans, this could be a foot back in the door; only if played right. However, it might not be as beneficial for the Republicans as one thinks. If the Republican's popularity remains low and the Democrats ratings continue to fall, this might give rise to a strong third party in America. Because of the winner-take-all effect of our Electoral College system, the Democrats could win again because they have a higher number of registered voters. I think a third party could easily hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats.

The only reason I even mention a third political party is because of the "Tea Party" movement. While it appears the Tea Party participants have the support in all areas of the political spectrum -- Republicans, Independents and Democrats -- the highest level of support is by far Republicans. For this reason, it could split the Republicans and hurt them the most if the "Tea Party" goers actually morph into a political party. But, what will "actually" happen is anyone's guess because months can be like a lifetime in the world of politics.

One thing you can be sure of is if the President's popularity falls below 50%, his policies will struggle; despite having complete control in both Houses of Congress. That's because the individual members of Congress will abandon the party line and adopt a posture of "every man for themself" if they feel their own job is in jeopardy. When that happens, Obama's remaining years might well be totally fruitless; just as Jimmy Carter's only term in office was. We can already see that happening with the Blue Dog Democrats rebelling against Health Care Reform and Cap and Trade. Obama's fight on these issues is no longer with the Republicans but with the members of his own Party; no matter how he tries to spin it.

It should be really interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. Increasingly, the trend is "not" hardly Obama's friend!

Note: If you would like to see how all the national pollsters faired in their accuracy in the 2008 election, please review these results from a Fordham U. study: (Click to See Full Story). While the Rassmussen Poll has Obama under 50%, it should be pointed out that it is the only major national poll that soley focuses on "likely voters". The others included reflect all those who answer their polls; regardless of their past voting status or whether or not they are even registered as voters. To me, "likely voters" is more important than some generalized popularity rating.

Also Note: The first chart being displayed in this blog entry is being dynamically linked from the Real Clear Politics website. Therefore, its data will be constantly updated past the orgininal date of this particular blog posting.