Is Anti-Trump Sentiment Causing New Found Support for ObamaCare?

For the first time in any Pew Research Polling since 2010, the February approval rate of ObamaCare has scored higher than 50%:

Click on Image to Enlarge or See Reference Below

This is odd since not much news regarding ObamaCare has been positive.  Fewer people have signed up this year than last. Insurers are quitting the exchanges in droves.  One-third of the 3000 counties in the U.S. have only a single insurer to choose from.  Premiums went up an average of 23% this year.  So, what is driving this new support for a law that few liked until this year?

There is one big difference for ObamaCare in 2017 that may be helping push its popularity up in the polls.  Donald Trump.  It appears as if the continual promises to repeal and replace it is having the opposite effect on what has always been negative support for the Obama healthcare law.   I also believe that the delay in presenting a logical and useful alternative is also taking its toll. This same phenomenon is appearing in various other polls as well. See PollingReport.com reference, below.  Go figure.

References:

PolingReport.com: Health Policy Polling: http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

11 Biggest Problems With Obamacare | Daily Wire: http://www.dailywire.com/news/12146/11-biggest-problems-obamacare-aaron-bandler

Year Six of the Affordable Care Act: Obamacare's Mounting Problems: http://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/year-six-the-affordable-care-act-obamacares-mounting-problems

Obama Is Not Popular!

Yesterday, the folks at Gallup reported that Obama sank to a new low approval rating of 47%; with his disapproval rating at a new high of 46%. As the Gallup Report of yesterday points out, no other President, since "their" polling began, had such a low approval rating in their first December since taking office (Click to See Full Report: "After Brief Uptick, Obama Approval Slips to 47%").

This morning, Fox News even took that further and found that no single President in the history of any polling (not just Gallup) had such a low approval rating (Click to See Full Story: "Obama's 47 Percent Approval Lowest of Any President at This Point".

I often hear Democrats and Democratic pundits talk of Obama as being a "popular" President and one who the "people" elected based on his "plans". Well, what might of been true last year, isn't the case now. Obviously, the American people are not buying into his "plans" or the way he is handling his Presidency. And, why should they? In almost every case, Obama "baited" the electorate to get into office with promises he either couldn't or wouldn't keep; with the latter being the primary case. After getting there, he has done nothing but "switch" to a very left wing agenda and the American people aren't happy. That's not my opinion. It's a clear a fact. And, the polls are showing it.

Please note: Almost all of the national polls have Obama at 50% or lower on his approval rating (Click to See the Data from RealClearPoltics). The only ones that are still above 50% are the polls from those media organizations like: CBS, ABC, NBC, and the Associated Press. How special are they? Even the previous Obama-loving CNN has now got him below 50% at a 48% approval rating.

This Trend Isn't Obama's Friend!

In the investment world, there's an old saying that the "Trend Is Your Friend." It doesn't matter if it's going up or going down but, if you recognize the trend you will be "out" when the market or a stock is going down or "in" when a stock or the stock market is trending upwards. But, when talking about politics, if you've got a declining trend in your approval rating, that trend is only a friend to your political opponents.

When Obama took office, he had a 65% approval rating when Real Clear Politics took its average of all the major polls at that time (as noted in the interactive chart - above). Similarly, his disapproval score was about 20%. The differential between those who approved of him and those who didn't was a whopping separation of nearly 45%. Further, with only a 20% disapproval rating and a registered Republican base of nearly 30% of the people in the country, it was obvious that about 1/3 of all Republicans had a favorable view of the new President.

Today, you can clearly see that Obama's approval rating is on a precipitous downward slide as evidenced by taking the interactive chart (above) and adding a couple of trend lines to it as shown below:


At the same time, the rise in his disapproval rate is mirroring his decline; but a slightly faster rate.

As noted previously, Obama had a 45 percentile differential in his approval/disapproval scores when he took office. Today, that separation has fallen to just over 13 points.

At the current trend, it looks as if Obama will flip his approval/disapproval ratings in just one to two months from now; assuming that the things that are turning people off about this President continue to rise.

I believe that team Obama is well aware of this and, for that reason, they are literally panic-pushing to get these big items like Cap and Trade and Health Care reform done before the President's composite popularity in all the polls falls below 50% .

(Please note: The latest Rasmussen daily tracking polls now have Obama's approval at only 49% (Click to See Data) and Gallup's daily tracking polls are not far behind at 55% (Click to See that Data)).

The big thing about Obama losing approval is that it opens the door for a reversal of the wins that the Democrats enjoyed in 2006 and 2008. For the Republicans, this could be a foot back in the door; only if played right. However, it might not be as beneficial for the Republicans as one thinks. If the Republican's popularity remains low and the Democrats ratings continue to fall, this might give rise to a strong third party in America. Because of the winner-take-all effect of our Electoral College system, the Democrats could win again because they have a higher number of registered voters. I think a third party could easily hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats.

The only reason I even mention a third political party is because of the "Tea Party" movement. While it appears the Tea Party participants have the support in all areas of the political spectrum -- Republicans, Independents and Democrats -- the highest level of support is by far Republicans. For this reason, it could split the Republicans and hurt them the most if the "Tea Party" goers actually morph into a political party. But, what will "actually" happen is anyone's guess because months can be like a lifetime in the world of politics.

One thing you can be sure of is if the President's popularity falls below 50%, his policies will struggle; despite having complete control in both Houses of Congress. That's because the individual members of Congress will abandon the party line and adopt a posture of "every man for themself" if they feel their own job is in jeopardy. When that happens, Obama's remaining years might well be totally fruitless; just as Jimmy Carter's only term in office was. We can already see that happening with the Blue Dog Democrats rebelling against Health Care Reform and Cap and Trade. Obama's fight on these issues is no longer with the Republicans but with the members of his own Party; no matter how he tries to spin it.

It should be really interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. Increasingly, the trend is "not" hardly Obama's friend!

Note: If you would like to see how all the national pollsters faired in their accuracy in the 2008 election, please review these results from a Fordham U. study: (Click to See Full Story). While the Rassmussen Poll has Obama under 50%, it should be pointed out that it is the only major national poll that soley focuses on "likely voters". The others included reflect all those who answer their polls; regardless of their past voting status or whether or not they are even registered as voters. To me, "likely voters" is more important than some generalized popularity rating.

Also Note: The first chart being displayed in this blog entry is being dynamically linked from the Real Clear Politics website. Therefore, its data will be constantly updated past the orgininal date of this particular blog posting.

The Obama-Show is Losing Steam!

This morning's Gallup poll, reflects a Presidential popularity rating that is sinking fast.



At the beginning of June, Obama had a 64% personal approval rating in that poll. As of today, he has slipped to a 57% approval rating. That's a slide of 7 percentage points in a single month. Further, if you look at the fact that he had a "taking office" approval rating of 68 to 69%, Obama has suffered a loss of job approval in the month of June, alone, that is greater than all the previous months' losses combined since he took office. This suggests a loss that is rapidly accelerating.

If this trend continues and he loses another 7% in July, he will be right on the edge of a 50% approval rating. Anything lower than that would suggest that he has become an "unpopular" President. And if that does happen, he would have done so in just 5 months.

His disapproval numbers are even more disconcerting. Upon taking office, he had a mere 10% disapproval rating. Now, he is at 35%. That's a net dissatisfaction increase of 25 percentage points. Combined with the 12% decline in his job approval since taking office, America's dissatisfaction with this President is increasing at a factor of 2 to 1. This also means that previously undecided respondents are quickly moving into the disapproval camp faster than those who previously supported this President. When Obama took office, about 21 percent of the poll respondents were undecided. Today, that number is down to 8 percent with the majority of those, if not all, becoming dissatisfied with Obama. This is important, because those that were undecided at the time that he took office showed a logical restraint by taking a wait and see attitude about this President. At the same time, those who gave Obama a high approval rating at the time he took office, with no job performance to speak of, were being totally disingenuous. I think Obama should really worry about all the fence-sitters who have gone negative towards him.

We know from other polls that the bulk of this erosion in popularity is also coming from Independent voters. In just one month, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reported that the popularity of Obama among Independent voters fell to 45% from a prior month's 60% (See Full Story). Anyway you shake it, that is a big drop from a group that tends to shape elections and who swing approval/disapproval rates in the polls. Independents are certainly less ideologically bound to any particular political party and are a very good indicator of the general satisfaction/dissatisfaction of any politician.

That same NBC/WSJ opinion poll also reported Obama's overall rating at 56%; which is very close to the Gallup number of 57%. Because of this synchronicity between the two polls, I think you can be somewhat assured that the loss of Independent voter support is genuine.

Another sign of waning support for this President and his policies didn't come from a poll but from ABC's ratings when it aired the all-day-with-Obama on healthcare show last week. ABC was third in the rankings that night. The Obama-show had less than 4 million viewers and, during one time slot, actually failed to beat a rerun of a sit-com. I think if that same ABC stunt had been pulled right after Obama took office the ratings would have been at least four times that of this week's actual ratings; maybe even higher. But, now the low ratings show disinterest in what has truly become an overexposed President that is more in love with his own words than in producing actual results.

I think the polls are reflecting the fact that this guy's "flowing" and "glowing" words aren't matching up with the realities on the ground. Things aren't happening the way he promised and he will be punished, popularity-wise, for the deceptions being attempted in and by his well-delivered speeches.

As I had said long ago, this guy is a "Flim-Flam Man" and a lot of people are starting to realize it!

Note: The Gallup daily tracking poll can be viewed at this link (Click Here To View).