Democrats are "Ginning Up" Support For ObamaCare

The Democrats seem to think they have a winning reason for people "not" to vote Republican in 2020 (and beyond) as a result of the repeal of ObamaCare. Because of this, they are willing to make up all kinds of lies in order to gin up support for keeping the ACA.

Bernie Sanders said 36,000 people a year would die with the repeal/replacement of ObamaCare.  The Washington Post said this about that:

That's the max Pinocchio's you can get from the "Post" for lying.  And, the lie didn't just stop with Bernie.  Despite the "pants on fire" rating by the "Post," the claim continues to be perpetuated by well-known Democrats such as Terry McAuliffe and Elizabeth Warren.

Then, there's this from Nancy Pelosi.  According to her, 17 million children have pre-existing conditions that would result in denial of coverage. First of all, that number represents 24% of the 70 million children in the country.  Does anyone think that one-out-of-every-four children in America will become uninsured?  Again, the Washington Post had to set the record straight by saying that it is more likely that only 4 million children have pre-existing conditions.

But, understand, there is a difference between having a pre-existing condition like ADHD and having an extremely serious condition that would warrant being uninsurable.  Healthcare economist John C. Goodman stated in an interview with CNBC, that before ObamaCare went into effect, the percentage of uninsured was just 1%.  Thus, Nancy Pelosi's 17 million would be further whittled down to 700,000.

The same goes for Representative Frank Pallone Jr. of New Jersey, who is claiming 129 million people with pre-existing conditions would be hurt (I guess financially) by TrumpCare. Again, this is another gross exaggeration that had to be called out by the Washington Post, and to which the 1%  rule (noted above) would be applied.  The "Post" says the number is more like 50 million who will have negative impacts on their insurance.   Further, only about 3 million may find themselves uninsurable.

The word "might" is highlighted because the GOP House healthcare bill addresses pre-existing conditions with risk pools.  People who would have higher insurance rates would be placed in risk pools that would be partially funded by the Federal Government to keep their costs down.  In addition, the GOP healthcare bill mandates that no one can be denied insurance because of a pre-existing condition. Those who don't have pre-existing conditions, should have their insurance costs reduced as a result of not having to pay for those with high healthcare costs due to long-term care for those pre-existing conditions.

 I could go on and on about all the lies being told.  But, people dying and pre-existing conditions seem to be at he forefront of the Democrat's effort to save ObamaCare.  Other related issues will be addressed in later blog posts.

References:

Fact Checker: Bernie Sanders’s claim that ‘36,000 people will die yearly’ if Obamacare is repealed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/01/14/bernie-sanderss-claim-that-36000-people-will-die-yearly-if-obamacare-is-repealed/?utm_term=.9fd97e7078a6

Democrats' grim prognosis on GOP health bill: 'People will die': http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/democrats-grim-prognosis-on-gop-health-bill-people-will-die/article/2622207

Pre-Existing Conditions: Evaluating Competing Claims: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/us/politics/health-care-fact-check-preexisting-conditions.html

Pre-existing condition figures 'nonsense' — here's how to address it, author says: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/pre-existing-condition-figures-nonsense--heres-how-to-address-it-author-says.html

History and Why TrumpCare Failed

I hope Donald Trump learned a valuable lesson about Washington politics with his failure to pass the American Health Care Act (now forevermore known as TrumpCare).

One of the hardest things to do in Washington D.C. is to build a consensus; even among your own party members. This is one of the reasons why, in 1993, HillaryCare failed.  Too many Democrats had conflictingideas on how it should be done. Just like today. But, it was that lesson learned from the 1993 failure that allowed a consensus to form among Democrats leading to ObamaCare pasing into law in 2010.  Of course, some of that consensus was bought with things like the "Louisiana Purchase" and the "Corn-husker Kickback".

Everyone in the media knew there were too many defections from the GOP plan.  Yet, Trump and Ryan pushed it anyway.  I guess they were thinking it would happen simply because Trump promised it would.  Trump just may want to do a rewrite of his bestseller and rename it the "Art of the No Deal".

References:

Uh Oh: At Least 36 Republicans Plan To Vote Against GOP Health Care Bill: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2017/03/24/uh-oh-at-least-36-republicans-plan-to-vote-against-gop-health-care-bill-n2303816

GOP cave on Obamacare repeal is the biggest broken promise in political history: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gop-cave-on-obamacare-repeal-is-the-biggest-broken-promise-in-political-history/article/2618413

Clinton Health Care Plan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_health_care_plan_of_1993

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Healthcare_debate.2C_2008.E2.80.9310

EDITORIAL: The $300 million Louisiana purchase - Washington Times: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/30/the-300-million-louisiana-purchase/

Is Anti-Trump Sentiment Causing New Found Support for ObamaCare?

For the first time in any Pew Research Polling since 2010, the February approval rate of ObamaCare has scored higher than 50%:

Click on Image to Enlarge or See Reference Below

This is odd since not much news regarding ObamaCare has been positive.  Fewer people have signed up this year than last. Insurers are quitting the exchanges in droves.  One-third of the 3000 counties in the U.S. have only a single insurer to choose from.  Premiums went up an average of 23% this year.  So, what is driving this new support for a law that few liked until this year?

There is one big difference for ObamaCare in 2017 that may be helping push its popularity up in the polls.  Donald Trump.  It appears as if the continual promises to repeal and replace it is having the opposite effect on what has always been negative support for the Obama healthcare law.   I also believe that the delay in presenting a logical and useful alternative is also taking its toll. This same phenomenon is appearing in various other polls as well. See PollingReport.com reference, below.  Go figure.

References:

PolingReport.com: Health Policy Polling: http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm

11 Biggest Problems With Obamacare | Daily Wire: http://www.dailywire.com/news/12146/11-biggest-problems-obamacare-aaron-bandler

Year Six of the Affordable Care Act: Obamacare's Mounting Problems: http://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/year-six-the-affordable-care-act-obamacares-mounting-problems

ObamaCare: Don't Repeal. Instead Grandfather...

First, let me say I'm no fan of ObamaCare. I think it is structurally ruining our healthcare system; driving up costs; and putting lower income people into insurance policies with extremely high deductibles and high out-of-pocket expenses.

That aside, at least 12 million Americans have gotten their health insurance through the exchanges.  Of which, nearly 85% are getting subsidies; with the average subsidy being 73% of their cost of insurance.  By extension, these people have entered in a "good faith contract" with our Federal government.

While I am not a lawyer, I have taken enough business law courses to understand that a "good faith contract" could be a problem for Donald Trump and the Republicans who would necessarily repeal ObamaCare.  I think, theoretically, the collective of those receiving subsidies, and through no fault of their own, lose those subsidies, could sue in federal court (or even the Supreme Court) to maintain them on the basis of "good faith".

Additionally, I think the repeal of ObamaCare will result in a public relations nightmare for Trump and the Republicans.  You know very well that the liberal media will work overtime to find someone who is harmed or has even died as a result of completely losing their insurance because of the lack of a subsidy.  Once again, the Republicans will be broadly painted as being heartless.

I think a better tactic would be to grandfather, in place, all those now receiving subsidies.  Drop the individual and employer mandates, and retain the requirements that insurance companies can't deny a person insurance on the basis of a pre-existing condition.

If the Republicans do their jobs and create a new healthcare law that is better than ObamaCare, those still in ObamaCare should naturally move to the new system.  Just my opinion.

References:

ObamaCare Subsidy Calculator and Statistics: https://www.healthinsurance.org/obamacare/subsidy-calculator/

Good Faith (Law) - Wikipedia: https://www.healthinsurance.org/obamacare/subsidy-calculator/

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8 Million Signups Is Success And Talk Of ObamaCare Repeal Is Over?

I'm sorry, Mr. President, having 8 million people or 2-1/2 percent of the population signed up for ObamaCare hardly proves success. Success should only be judged on whether or not the law actually meets the goals and promises that justified a complete upheaval of the healthcare system.

For years, Democrats have argued that we need to reform healthcare in America for the following reasons:

1. People with pre-existing conditions should not be denied insurance or medical care.
2. People should not be dropped by their insurers if they become seriously ill.
3. Millions of uninsured are clogging our emergency rooms or are going without needed care. We need all Americans to be insured.
4. With the highest cost of healthcare in the world, reform is needed to bend the cost curve.

In selling healthcare reform, Obama added some additional promises.

1. If you like your insurance, you can keep it.
2. If you like your doctor, you can keep him/her.
3. The average family will see a $2500 drop in their insurance premiums.
4. No one should go bankrupt because they get sick.

Then, the title of the law -- The Affordable Care Act and Patient Protection -- implied two more  promises: (1) healthcare will be affordable and (2) patients will be protected.

Meeting those goals is the true measure of success. Not some vague number of people who are forced to signup because the law cancelled their insurance or because they are under the threat of having to pay a penalty. At this juncture, ObamaCare isn't even meeting one quarter of all of those promises.  That, to any rational person, isn't success, or a reason not to debate its repeal.  Finally, can it be viewed as a success when the President finds it necessary to delay so much of its implementation until after the mid-term elections?

Reference: Obama argues healthcare law is working, rejects Republican criticism: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-usa-healthcare-obama-idUSBREA3G24820140417

For ObamaCare: The 2014 Elections Might Have Serious Consequences

I think a lot of Republicans (and Democrats, too) believe that it would be impossible to repeal and replace ObamaCare unless they controlled both houses of Congress and could retake the presidency in 2017.  However, I believe there is another scenario that could seal ObamaCare's fate in 2015.

If (and that is a big "if") the Democrats receive a similar shellacking in 2014 as was seen in 2010, and they lose control of the Senate and see even more losses of seats in the House, a number of Senate Democrats may possibly be willing to side with Republicans in repealing ObamaCare.  Enough, even,  to override an Obama veto.  I can say this with confidence because no Democrat is going to be willing to lose another sweeping election because of their continued support of ObamaCare.

The only way Republicans can pull this off is to offer a bill that, in the very first paragraph, repeals or supersedes ObamaCare and, then, goes on to outline a new reform of heath care. One that would have clear public acceptance over the current law and one that, at the very least, is somewhat acceptable to the Democrats.

The biggest hangup in doing this will be the Republican's insistence on tort reform.  Because trial lawyers are such big donors to the Democrats, it will be very difficult for any of them to vote for a bill that would harm that critical donor base.  In fact, right now, ObamaCare, with all of its legislative facets, is a potential gold mine for trial lawyers if health care providers and insurance companies fail to comply with any parts of the law; leading to both Federal and civil lawsuits being filed.  While tort reform would definitely benefit the country as a whole by lowering health care costs, the Republicans would be wise to hold off doing anything about it until they do have the presidency and both houses of congress.

Democrats Claim A Mandate To Raise Taxes On The Rich

Just two days, now, following the election, Obama and the Democrats have looked at the exit polling and have concluded that they have a mandate from the people to raise taxes on the rich.  If that logic is true, then, they have also received a mandate to repeal or replace ObamaCare.  That's because the same exit polling showed a majority of voters favoring a whole or partial repeal; 49% to 44%. 

Personally, I wouldn't mind raising taxes on the rich if ObamaCare could be repealed.

---  Politico.com: Exit Polling On ObamaCare: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83427.html

---  Politico.com: President Obama sees voter mandate on taxes: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83502_Page2.html

Justice Roberts Potential Gift To The GOP: Budget Reconciliation

From the day that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare) was passed into law, the Democrats always felt secure in the fact that it could never be overturned by the Republicans (GOP).  Because the formula to do so would be nearly impossible.  And, that formula would have to be "all" of the following:  (1) a majority of seats in the House of Representatives; (2) a sitting Republican president; and, (3) a filibuster-proof, 60-seat voting majority in the Senate.  Their only fear was that ObamaCare could be found unconstitutional by a conservative-dominated Supreme Court.

But, when the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, John Roberts, sided with the court liberals and ruled that ObamaCare was primarily a taxing law,  the most difficult aspect of the above formula,  a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, was just thrown out the window.  No longer was ObamaCare a law that was constitutionally founded in the Commerce clause and subject to filibuster rules of the Senate with a 60-vote majority needed to override any filibuster.   Instead, the law has now become a taxing and budgeting issue; subject to the Senate rules for Budget Reconciliation where filibustering doesn't apply.  So, all that's needed to overturn ObamaCare in the Senate is a simple majority of Republicans.

But, let's not forget that Roberts' gift is only a gift if the Republicans maintain control of the House and gain control of the Senate and get Mitt Romney elected president.  Otherwise, ObamaCare will remain the law of the land. Let's also never forget what damage the Roberts' decision did.  For evermore, the Congress of the United States can now tax any of us for not doing or buying something.

Americans ForThe Repeal Of ObamaCare Matches The Make-up of the Supreme Court

The Supreme Court is made up of 5 conservative and 4 liberal justices. On a percentage basis, that means that the court is 55% conservative. Coincidentally, the percentage of Americans who believe ObamaCare should be repealed is about 55% (Click here to see Rasmussen's tracking polls on the repeal of ObamaCare).

The President keeps trying to hammer home the fact that ObamaCare was passed into law by a "duly elected majority" in Congress. Sadly, his duly elected majority doesn't match up with the number of American voters who want it repealed. So, even if the Supreme Court strikes down the law on a narrow conservative basis, it will be doing so in line with the will of the people. Something that was ignored by the Democrats when they created ObamaCare.