Obama and the ObamaCare Numbers Game

Earlier this year, ObamaCare concluded its second open enrollment.  With the end of each enrollment period, President Obama was quick to take a victory lap on the numbers. After the 2014 enrollment, he touted that they had met their goal of 8 million signups.  Then, this year he took another victory lap when nearly 12 million (actually 11.7) had enrolled in the state and federal exchanges.

But, the one thing you will never hear from the President are the "real" numbers that show how many people have actually paid for the healthcare insurance they signed up for.  Last year, ObamaCare's enrollment had to be lowered from the original 8 million signups to just 6.7 million.  We didn't see him at the microphones on that one.

This year, the supposed 11.7 million enrollees has shrunk to just 9.9 million paying customers.  Again, we could hear crickets chirping in the background when that was revealed.

But, one thing that the Obama Administration is right on, is the fact that the number of uninsured has been lowered to 11.4%.  And so it should be.  ObamaCare is enrolling millions more people in Medicaid and is imposing fines on individuals for not buying insurance and fines on businesses for not providing insurance.  Simply put, when a girl scout comes to your door and puts a gun to your head, you're going to buy those cookies.  Also understand what 11.4% of 324 million people represent.  That's nearly 37 million who don't have health insurance.  Three-and-a-half times the number of people who have signed up for ObamaCare in the last two years.

Here's another fact that the Obama Administration isn't telling you.  ObamaCare is falling well behind its budget projections.  So much so, that another 10.2 million will have to signup in 2016 to meet the budgetary goals.  Something that's a little hard to believe will happen when you consider that enrollment increases are being halved each year from 8 million in 2014 to just another 3.7 million for 2015. This doesn't even consider the fact that in 2014, 12% of those enrolled never paid; and for 2015 that percentage grew to over 15%.

Of course, none of the major news outlets are reporting any of this in "toto" to show how poorly its actually performing.  No, Mr. President, ObamaCare is not working!

References:

ObamaCare Enrollment and Sign Up Numbers Quick Facts: http://obamacarefacts.com/sign-ups/obamacare-enrollment-numbers/

Administration admits Obamacare enrollment numbers error: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/inflated-obamacare-enrollment-dental-113064

Obamacare 'paid' enrollment drops to 9.9M - CNBC.com: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/08/obamacare-paid-enrollment-drops-to-99m.html

U.S. Uninsured Rate at 11.4% in Second Quarter - Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/184064/uninsured-rate-second-quarter.aspx

Obamacare enrollees must double to make budget projections work: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/13/obamacare-enrollees-must-double-to-make-budget-pro/

CBO Downgrades Obamacare's Enrollment And Subsidy Projections: http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2015/03/10/cbo-downgrades-obamacares-enrollment-projections-subsidy-costs/

Why the Uninsured Prefer to Pay the ObamaCare Tax Penalty

Recently, three Democrats began lobbying to delay the ObamaCare tax penalty for not buying healthcare insurance because they are worried that millions of their constituents are going to be blind-sided by the cost.  Even though those same three Democrats voted for ObamaCare and should be well aware that there was an individual mandate in the law; and, that not buying insurance, carried a penalty.  A penalty that was designed to force the uninsured to buy insurance.  This was a law that the Democrats, alone, legislated and got signed.  Even so, the uninsured rate is still extremely high with 42 million Americans still without insurance; and, any dent in that number will be small because Health and Human Services only expects to enroll and re-enroll a total of 10 million this year. 

What those Democrats don't seem to understand is that people are electing to pay the penalty because they can't afford the insurance that they are being forced to buy under the Affordable Care Act (aka ObamaCare).   Also, many (if not most) know the penalty won't be applied to them if they file for a hardship exemption.

To understand this and why ObamaCare insurance is so unaffordable and a hardship for millions, you need to use the Tax Policy Center's ObamaCare penalty calculator. 

Using the median household income in the country of about $52,000 a year and assuming a typical family of two adults and one child, the 2014 tax penalty would be $419 for not buying insurance. More importantly, a family of that size and income would not be eligible for any subsidy to help pay for their insurance. But, here's the kicker and why the Democrats just don't understand why so many would prefer to pay the penalty.  The lowest cost to buy insurance in the ObamaCare exchange for that family size was $9,792 last year.  In tax year 2015, the penalty is upped to $975; and, so is the cost of insurance at $10,280.  Next year, the tax penalty will be yet higher at $2,080.  Even so, the cost of paying the penalty greatly outweighs the cost of buying the insurance. 

You don't have to be an MBA to understand that buying insurance at that income level is a big financial hit after paying federal income taxes.  In fact, a family making $52,000 a year will only have $39,000 left after paying their federal taxes. Much lower if state income taxes also need to be applied. So, having to spend nearly $10,000 to buy ObamaCare insurance will, at the very least, cut the average family's disposable income by more than one-quarter; leaving them with less than $29,000 to live on.  On top of that, that same family would still face a potential out-of-pocket expense per individual of $6,600 a year; or, $13,200 per family.  A fact that most Democrats don't seem to understand.  So, for a lot of people, the only choice is to pay the penalty and forgo the insurance. Most of them also probably know that they can go to any Medicare-accepting Hospital and they will be treated for free under a law called the "Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act".

Literally, those aforementioned Democrats don't seem to understand that it is the law that should be delayed and, not just the penalty.  If not, the number of uninsured in this country is not going to be eliminated; and, all too many hospitals will be left holding the bag for their care.

References:

 APNewsbreak: Democrats seek relief from health law penalties: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2015-02-16-US--Health%20Overhaul-Penalties/id-b1c64dfc3f7946adba5dcd09c2ec5ff4

Democrats Keep Running Away From ObamaCare: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-obama-care/021715-739656-democrats-want-still-more-waivers-to-obamacare-mandate.htm

Millions to owe Obamacare tax penalty: http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/28/news/economy/obamacare-tax-penalty/

US Census Data: Uninsured Rate…Increased in 2014?: http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2014/09/22/us-census-bureau-number-of-uninsured-americansincreased-in-2014-n1894992

Median Family Income: https://www.google.com/search?q=median+family+income&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

ObamaCare Penalty Calculator: http://taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/acacalculator.cfm

$ 52,000.00 Tax Calculation for 2015 Tax Year: http://www.taxformcalculator.com/tax/52000.html

Bronze Plan Deductibles and Out-of-pocket Caps: http://www.healthpocket.com/individual-health-insurance/bronze-health-plans#.VOTK1y6S-Ng

Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_and_Active_Labor_Act

3 Negative ObamaCare Stories That Have Been Buried By Other Headline Grabbing News

In the last three weeks, the news cycle has been consumed with Hamas/Israeli fighting, the Islamic State in Iraq, and the rioting/looting in Ferguson, Missouri.  But, in just the last three weeks some very disturbing reports regarding ObamaCare were released.  All of which were largely ignored by the national media.

The first negative ObamaCare report came from Fox News on August 7th.  According to a Congressional study, as many as 25 million uninsured may escape being forced to buy insurance under threat of penalty because of a series of hardship exemptions that were implemented by an Obama executive order.  To put that into perspective, that's more than half the 30 million Americans who currently don't have insurance which seriously negates the primary goal of ObamaCare, which was to get every American insured.  It also means that the projected tax revenue for not having insurance is greatly overstated; resulting in higher deficit spending and a further breaking of the President's promise that ObamaCare wouldn't add one penny to the national debt.  Additionally, the uninsured are typically the so-called invincibles:  A younger and healthier group of individuals who typically think they won't get sick and don't need insurance.  Now, if these people aren't in the exchanges, then the cost of everyone's rates will go up because there won't be enough young and healthy insured to offset the higher cost of covering the older and sicker patients.

In another report, Aetna -- our third largest health insurer -- stated that they expected to lose 30% of those who first signed up for ObamaCare by the end of this year. This is because those enrollees have either never paid for their insurance in the first place or have just stopped paying.  If this is indicative of a national trend then, the 8 million signup number -- that Obama so proudly claimed -- is actually closer to 5-1/2 million.  And, remember.  5 million lost their insurance last fall because of ObamaCare.  So, net-net, this means that there was only a 1/2 million increase in the number of truly insured.

Lastly, there was this story from Forbes. The accounting firm of PriceWaterhouseCooper looked at the projected 2015 rate increases for the exchanges in 29 states and found that the average increase is 7.5%.  In about a third of those 29 states, the rate increases are all in the double digits; with highest being Indiana at 15.4%.   In another study, the Wall Street Journal reported that 10 states were seeing rate hikes of between 8.5% to as much as 22.8%.  Then, too, a National Bureau of Economic Research report said that ObamaCare has pushed premiums up by 28% this year and, in another study by the Manhattan Institute, the jump in insurance rates was calculated to be 49%.  The bottom line is simply that ObamaCare is not slowing the cost increases of insurance as our President has claimed.  Even if the average rate increases are only 7.5%, that's almost 4 times the 2% rate of inflation so far this year.

All together, the above paragraphs paint a disastrous picture for ObamaCare.  One that probably won't be told because it is being buried by so much other bad news in the world.

References:

Millions of uninsured Americans exempt from ObamaCare penalties in 2016, report finds: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/08/07/millions-uninsured-americans-exempt-from-obamacare-penalties-in-2016-watchdog/

ObamaCare Enrollment Is Shrinking, Top Insurers Say: http://news.investors.com/politics-obamacare/081114-712602-obamacare-enrollment-falling-aetna-says.htm

Obamacare's Death of a Thousand Rate Hikes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2014/08/25/obamacares-death-of-a-thousand-rate-hikes/

Current US Inflation Rates: 2004-2014: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

ObamaCare's Dwindling Success

In April, the President took a victory lap declaring that ObamaCare did better than expected by enrolling 8 million people; arguing that their original goal was 7 million.  Not a lot was known about those 8 million at the time.  Who was being insured?  Did they previously have insurance? How many paid their premiums?  How many were getting subsidies?  What was the average cost?  And, to this day, Obama's Health and Human Services Dept. hasn't answered any of those questions; leading many to believe that 8 million might not be a solid number.

Since then, independents, such as Blue Cross and Blue Shield, the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), have been working overtime to answer those very important questions.  Now, collectively, the following has been revealed:

1. Approximately 80 to 85 percent have paid for their insurance.  This means that conservatively, only about 6.8 million -- not 8 million -- really are insured under ObamaCare.
2. 57% formerly had no insurance.  So, only 3.9 million of the 38 million, who were uninsured, signed up for ObamaCare; meaning that 34 million would rather pay the penalty.
3. The 43% that previously had insurance, and signed up for ObamaCare, did so because they were primarily able to get free or nearly free federally subsidized policies.
4. GAO just reported that ObamaCare will add $6.2 Trillion to the long-term deficit over the next 10 years.  This, when the President assured the country that his signature healthcare program would not add one dime to the deficit.
5. Some good news (??).  2015 insurance premiums will only go up by 8%.  That's 4 times the estimated inflation rate and about 8 times the rate that incomes are expected to increase.  The good news is that, previously, double digit increases had been predicted. 

The bottom line in all this is that the 8 million is a bogus number.  Too few of the uninsured are being covered; which, by the way, was one of the primary reasons for implementing ObamaCare. It is a lot more expensive than we were told it would be.  And, no where to be seen, is the promised $2500 savings in healthcare insurance premiums.

Now, how's that for success!

References:

Obama hails 8 million enrollees for insurance under federal health-care law: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-hails-8-million-enrollees-for-insurance-under-federal-health-care-law/2014/04/17/db1892b2-c670-11e3-bf7a-be01a9b69cf1_story.html

Obamacare Exchanges Are ‘Disappointing’ With Fewer Than 4 Million Newly Insured. The Government Hoped for 26 Million: http://dailysignal.com/2014/06/24/obamacare-exchanges-disappointing/

GAO Report: Obamacare Adds $6.2 Trillion to Long-Term Deficit: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/341589/gao-report-obamacare-adds-62-trillion-long-term-deficit-andrew-stiles

Obamacare premiums rising in 2015, but not at 'death spiral' pace (+video): http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2014/0618/Obamacare-premiums-rising-in-2015-but-not-at-death-spiral-pace-video

8 Million Signups Is Success And Talk Of ObamaCare Repeal Is Over?

I'm sorry, Mr. President, having 8 million people or 2-1/2 percent of the population signed up for ObamaCare hardly proves success. Success should only be judged on whether or not the law actually meets the goals and promises that justified a complete upheaval of the healthcare system.

For years, Democrats have argued that we need to reform healthcare in America for the following reasons:

1. People with pre-existing conditions should not be denied insurance or medical care.
2. People should not be dropped by their insurers if they become seriously ill.
3. Millions of uninsured are clogging our emergency rooms or are going without needed care. We need all Americans to be insured.
4. With the highest cost of healthcare in the world, reform is needed to bend the cost curve.

In selling healthcare reform, Obama added some additional promises.

1. If you like your insurance, you can keep it.
2. If you like your doctor, you can keep him/her.
3. The average family will see a $2500 drop in their insurance premiums.
4. No one should go bankrupt because they get sick.

Then, the title of the law -- The Affordable Care Act and Patient Protection -- implied two more  promises: (1) healthcare will be affordable and (2) patients will be protected.

Meeting those goals is the true measure of success. Not some vague number of people who are forced to signup because the law cancelled their insurance or because they are under the threat of having to pay a penalty. At this juncture, ObamaCare isn't even meeting one quarter of all of those promises.  That, to any rational person, isn't success, or a reason not to debate its repeal.  Finally, can it be viewed as a success when the President finds it necessary to delay so much of its implementation until after the mid-term elections?

Reference: Obama argues healthcare law is working, rejects Republican criticism: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-usa-healthcare-obama-idUSBREA3G24820140417

Only 7.1 Million Signups Proves ObamaCare A Failure

First of all, the 7.1 million number is highly suspect.  While the Health and Human Services Secretary, Kathleen Sebelius, can't tell us, at the federal level, how many of that number have actually paid for the insurance they signed up for and, thus, are truly insured, a review of the state exchanges shows that only about 80% have paid for their policies.  If that's true, and it holds to be true at the federal level, that means that only about 5.7 million are truly signed up for ObamaCare.

To put that into perspective, 5.7 million is only about 1.7% of our population.  So, one has to wonder why we had this total upheaval of our health care system for the benefit of less than 2% of the population.

But, it looks even worse when you look at the total uninsured number. Two separate studies of ObamaCare signups were recently conducted: one by the Rand Corporation and the other by McKinsey & Company.  Rand found that only 1/3 of the enrollees previously had no insurance.  For McKinsey, it was 27%.  Now, if you split the difference of these two studies you get 30%.  This means that only 1.7 million of the 5.7 million number previously had no insurance.  What that is really telling us is that, of the 15.9% or 50 million who don't have health insurance, 48.3 million or 97% would prefer to pay the penalty rather than buy into ObamaCare.  Hardly a success story for a law that was primarily intended to solve the uninsured problem.

Then, there's this measure of the law's failure.  From the paragraph above, we can deduce the fact that about 4 million of those signing up previously had insurance.  Logically, some number of those millions voluntarily left their existing policies because they got federal subsidies and their cost for insurance was lowered.  But, what doesn't square with that number is the fact that more than 5 million lost insurance at the beginning of the year because of mandates of the healthcare law.  The conclusion being that ObamaCare is better at kicking people off their insurance than providing them an alternative once they've lost it.

It's important to note that the Obama Administration set the 7 million number as a measure of success; and, conveniently, they not only met that goal but slightly exceeded it.  This from an Administration that lied about keeping your doctor and your insurance.  They also said that delay "was not an option" yet, there have been numerous delays.

Obviously, people aren't "door busting" to saddle up with Obama's signature healthcare plan. With what we know -- along with so much that we don't know and should -- ObamaCare is not a success and it will only become less so going forward as more and more of the damaging portions are rolled out.  In my opinion, there should be as much outrage over Obama taking a Rose Garden victory lap for signing up 7.1 million people, as there was for George W. Bush giving his Iraq invasion speech with that infamous "Mission Accomplished" sign hanging behind him.  But, as usual, the media is just dutifully and lovingly joining in the celebration.

References:

The ObamaCare Numbers Racket: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-obama-care/032614-694734-obama-delays-enrollment-deadline-hides-data-to-inflation-enrollment.htm

RAND: Only One-Third Of Obamacare Exchange Sign-Ups Were From The Previously Uninsured: http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2014/03/31/rand-only-one-third-of-obamacare-exchange-sign-ups-were-from-the-previously-uninsured/

Gallup: Uninsured Americans: http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/b12atxiztekoguarvptywa.png

Obama Celebrates 7.1 Million Enrolled in Obamacare: http://time.com/45867/barack-obama-obamacare-affordable-care-act/

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Why Americans Losing Insurance Won't Sign Up For ObamaCare

Back in 2010, the Obama Administration knew that 93 million Americans would lose their health insurance as a result of ObamaCare.  It was all part of the plan.  A plan that "assumed" that it would force Americans into either government-controlled Medicaid or the government-mandated health exchanges and, put America on a pathway to single-payer, socialized medicine.  But, their plan makes the false assumption that Americans, in losing their insurance, will be eager to replace it. 

The fact is that -- since the 1980's and with the rise of cheap imported goods -- Americans have found themselves losing their employer-based insurance as employers tried to stay competitive with imports by slashing their high costs of labor.  Essentially, as imports increased and people lost health coverage, the number of uninsured also increased.  You can clearly see the correlation from the following two charts.

Click on either chart to zoom

The simple fact is that when Americans lose their insurance, they aren't necessarily inclined to replace it.   Especially, if the costs are too high.  They will just try and do without and take advantage of any social safety nets that may already exist.  As a result, the implementation of ObamaCare  may just result in many more uninsured.  Remember, that by the end of December, more than 6 million lost their current coverage but only 2.2 million signed up for a replacement in the new exchanges. This is just the opposite of what ObamaCare was supposed to do.

By the way.  Often times you hear that 30 million are uninsured.  The chart (above) from the CDC, clearly shows that 43.3 million are going without insurance.  That 30 million is a stale number from the Clinton years. 

References:

CDC: National Health Statistics Report 2009: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr017.pdf

Forbes: Obama Officials In 2010: 93 Million Americans Will Be Unable To Keep Their Health Plans Under Obamacare: http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/10/31/obama-officials-in-2010-93-million-americans-will-be-unable-to-keep-their-health-plans-under-obamacare/

Another Obama Distortion of the Truth

At Saturday's campaign-style health care reform rally in Minnesota, Obama made this statement:

"..nearly half of all Americans under 65 years old will lose their health care coverage...for some period...in the next 10 years"

To say this statement is disingenuous would be an understatement. While there's some truth to every Obama comment, there is always an equal and intentional distortion of the real facts. It's the lawyer in him!

Probably, in the last 10 years, too, nearly half of all Americans did lose their health insurance for some period of time. That's because we have an employer-based health insurance system in this country and about half of all Americans will switch jobs during that 10-year period. More often than not, the vast majority of those people only lose their health care insurance coverage over a weekend as they leave their old job on a Friday to start a new one on Monday.

Others probably did lose their insurance because their insurance company dropped them; for reasons including the non-payment of premiums and, sadly, because of extreme or pre-existing health conditions.

But, the disingenuous part of the President's statement is that it would "lead" you to believe that those 1/2 of Americans would continue on in life without any insurance. Of course, in typical Obama and lawyerly fashion, he didn't actually say that but, instead, he wanted you to formulate that opinion in your mind. Something he does constantly and why so many hear what they want to hear out of his speeches.

If the abstract of this statement were actually true, more than one half of all America would have absolutely no health insurance as of today and that number would just keep growing until none of us had insurance. But, that's not what is happening; and, quite frankly, that is absurd. Even those "evil" insurance companies wouldn't want a situation where their customer base and their business kept shrinking. That's not how capitalism works.

In reality, the only reason the percentage of uninsured has risen in America is because of all the illegal aliens that are now being tallied up in the number. Otherwise, the percentage of uninsured Americans has been fairly static for years. In fact, and hardly reported, the number of Americans who were without health insurance actually fell in 2007; just before the recession hit (Click to See Full Story: "Number of Uninsured Americans Drops"). As that article states, that was primarily due to the increased coverage of "children" resulting from programs like the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP). But note, too, from this article that this was the first drop in seven years. And, what happened in the last seven years? The answer has been a high influx of illegals.

The continued recession and high unemployment rate is the reason why the number of uninsured has probably risen, again, in the last 18 months. For sure, that problem now lies squarely on Obama's shoulders as a result of his failed stimulus package. With a "jobless recovery" looking to be more evident by the day, the number of uninsured could easily rise above 50 million in the next couple of years.

Contrary to what many might think, workers who lose their jobs due to layoffs and firings don't actually lose their insurance because of a Federal law called the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985; or, simply known as COBRA. Under COBRA, any workers who previously had company insurance and who get laid off or fired are able retain their prior employer's insurance rights for up to 18 months. But, Obama seems to overlook that particular fact when he's quickly throwing all his numbers around.

I really don't know what this President is up to with his latest comment. Most advocates for a single-payer, nationalized health care system will use this exact argument as the primary basis for a government-run health care system. However, in Wednesday's speech to Congress, he "implied" that single-payer was not his goal in what he is now calling "my health care plan". Now, as of Saturday, he again seems to be arguing the opposite.

Obama talks about "stopping all the games" as if to imply that it his opponents that are doing all the gaming. Yet, he continues the "game" by making contradictory statements and nonsensical arguments such as our doctors actually yank tonsils out because they'll make more money; and, that 1/2 of Americans will lose their insurance in the next 10 years. The game he is playing is to try and use absurd arguments to support his program in the audacious hope that you or I will actually believe him.

If Obama is worried about people losing their insurance, there is a simple solution that doesn't take 1000 pages of legislation and over 500 pages of addenda. Simply pass a law that makes it illegal for any insurance company to refuse, drop, or raise rates on someone because of a pre-existing health condition. You can also make it a law that insurance coverage is carried over for a period of 3 weeks past the time that anyone voluntarily leaves a company to go to another job. You don't need a complete and destructive juggernaut solution to solve an extremely simple problem. That's where Obama just doesn't get it.

If you would like to read another article that proves that Obama is stretching the truth, I would suggest this excellent opinion piece that appeared in this morning's Wall Street Journal: "Fact-Checking the President on Health Insurance".