Tuesday, November 22, 2011

GDP Growth Revised Down From 2.5% To A Meager 2%

This morning, the Commerce Department released its latest estimate of how much our economy grew in the 3rd quarter of this year. Back in October, they initially said that our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at 2.5%. Today, after further factors had be taken into consideration (?), the Commerce Department revised that GDP growth number down to just 2%.

For me, this 20% overstatement error came as no surprise. In fact, after the initial 2.5% number was released, I wrote some of the following in my blog entry of October 28:
"On Wednesday, the initial take on the third quarter 2011 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at an unexpected plus 2.5%."

"...the left-wing media was cheering about it because it is generally assumed a 2.5% GDP growth is the minimum level that's needed to start eating into the unemployment number."

"For me, that 2.5% GDP number has to be suspect. That's because, in a separate report, just released this morning, the consumer...seems to be struggling..."

"...that's why I think the 2.5% GDP growth figure might just be overstated and due for some forthcoming downward revisions."
I don't think I've ever seen as much inept reporting of economic numbers than I have since Obama and his people took over the federal departments responsible for reporting those numbers. Again, I point to the comments I made in my October 28th blog entry:
"But, before anyone gets too excited, this is only a "first pass" on the GDP number. In each of the next 3 months, that number is subject to revisions. Just last August, the 2nd quarter GDP growth was revised from 1.3% to 1%. Then, in September, it was revised back to 1.3%. But, the real shocker of all revisions came on July 29 of this year when the final number on the first quarter GDP was suddenly dropped from 1.9% (as reported in June) to just .4%. A whopping 475% downward revision."
Often, there seems to be a political component in the way the numbers are announced and, then, revised. Last month, when the 2.5% number came out, Obama was on a daily rant pushing his new stimulus package; or, what he commonly referred to as his jobs package. So, I think it was essential, at that time, that the results of his first stimulus package not be put into question with another lousy GDP report. Of course, that's just my opinion. But, it is an opinion that is based on the fact that, all too often, the good numbers being reported never seem to jive with all the other known facts.

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