Thursday, October 2, 2014

Warren Buffett Dispels The Belief That Global Warming Is Causing Climate Disasters

By now, I'm quite sure that you think climate change is seriously impacting the planet with more storms and hurricanes, warmer weather, less ice, rising seas, droughts, and even dying polar bears.  The climate alarmists and our politicians have told us so.

Of course, if that was all true, one would think that weather related insurance claims and rates would be going through the roof.

But, liberal billionaire Warren Buffet thinks not.

In an interview with CNBC, Buffett said that he's not calculating catastrophes any differently.  In other words, he's just not seeing any impact from climate activity on his insurance businesses.  Not in the last 5 years, not now, and not in the next five years. However, he did say that it might not be the case 10 years from now.

That is the inconvenient truth that Al Gore just might choke on.

By the way.  It should be pointed out that there has not been a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic in the last 9 years.  This is despite the fact, that in the above referenced movie, An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore predicted an increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes due to global warming.  This year, once again, the Atlantic hurricane season remains a dud.

References:

CNBC Interview: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460458

3,264 Days Without a Major Hurricane Strike: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/3264-days-without-a-major-hurricane-strike/


Atlantic hurricane season remains inactive: http://www.local10.com/weather/atlantic-hurricane-season-remains-inactive/28229472

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Obama On National Security: Hear No Evil and the Buck Stops Elsewhere

Ever since President Obama gave his '60 Minutes' interview and, basically, threw his national security team under the bus by claiming that "they" (not him) underestimated the ISIS threat, we have been seeing stories that expose a rather careless attitude by him on matters of national security.

However, even before the interview, there was that infamous JayVee team reference that he made about ISIS.  This was  8 months ago in January and it came just after ISIS flew their Black Flag over Fallujah.  This, again, after they had made massive gains in Syria and were on their way to Ramadi and Mosul.  Obviously, the taking of Fallujah should have been anyone's wake-up call since it had been one of the longest and bloodiest battles that our Marines fought in all of the Iraq war.  But ISIS was able to take that town in short order.  Not hardly a JayVee effort in contrast to our well trained Marines.

Then, since the '60 Minutes' comment, the DailyMail exposed the fact that Obama knew of the rising threat of ISIS prior to the 2012 elections.  Yet, because that threat didn't square with his Al Qaeda-on-the-run stump speeches, there was no effort to alert Americans to the threat or to take any action. 

Now, we find out from a report by the Government Accounting Institute, that the President only attends 42% of his Presidential Daily Briefings where he would have been informed of any national security issues.  I guess fundraising, speeches, and golf outings were more important than hearing about ISIS and other threats that we face.  Maybe that's why Obama is always being blindsided by scandals and international incidents and has to respond with a weak comment like: The first I heard of it is when you all head of it.

Our dedicated national security personnel are really upset with the President not owning up to having known about the ISIS threat.  In essence, his comment can easily be interpreted as him calling them incompetent.  And, if they didn't get it right on ISIS, shouldn't heads roll?  Doesn't this also mean that the Intel we're getting on other bad guy countries such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia, etc. might also be underestimated?  And, if that be true, isn't America at serious risk?

My guess is that Obama was told but, chose not to hear.  This is a huge problem with this President.  As many have said, he sees the world the way he thinks it should be and not how it really is.  That's a clear recipe for disaster.

References:

Obama: “They underestimated” ISIS: http://hotair.com/archives/2014/09/29/obama-they-underestimated-isis/

Jihadist ISIS captures Fallujah from Iraqi forces: http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/18112

Al-Qaeda force captures Fallujah amid rise in violence in Iraq: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/al-qaeda-force-captures-fallujah-amid-rise-in-violence-in-iraq/2014/01/03/8abaeb2a-74aa-11e3-8def-a33011492df2_story.html

Obama has had accurate intelligence about ISIS since BEFORE the 2012 election, says administration insider: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2774122/Obama-accurate-intelligence-ISIS-BEFORE-2012-election-says-administration-insider.html

Government Accountability Institute Report: Presidential Daily Briefs: A Time - Based Analysis: http://www.g-a-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GAI-Report-PDB-Update-9.29.2014.pdf

Obama Dismisses Al-Qaeda Resurgence: They’re JV: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/01/20/obama-dismisses-al-qaeda-resurgence-theyre-jv/

 'We did not know': 9 times the Obama administration was blindsided: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/06/20/obama-administration-caught-by-surprise/

In the Dark: Obama, Staff Learn of Scandals From News Reports: http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Obama-scandals-media/2014/07/11/id/582216/

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Obama's Disingenuous 10 Million Job Creation Claim

At a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation event last week, Barack Obama took credit for creating 10 million new jobs in the last 54 months.  Of course, what he didn't tell this African-American group is that blacks got very few of those 10 million jobs.  That's because, in 2009, when he took office, black unemployment was 12.6%.  Today, it has only mildly decreased to  11.4%; or, only a 9.5% improvement. On the other hand, white unemployment now stands at 5.3% after having been at 6.9% when Obama took office; a 23% reduction in that unemployment rate.

Nor, did he mention that before creating 10 million jobs, 4.3 million where lost.  Something that was never supposed to happen with the passage of his near trillion dollar stimulus package.  Nor, did he own up to the fact that in most of those 54 months, there was only job creation because workers stopped looking for work.  For example, last month saw a job growth of 142,000.  At the same time,  268,000 able-bodied workers just gave up looking.  If those 268,000 workers, when polled, had said they were still looking for work, they would had been counted as part of the workforce and, as a result,  there would have been a reported loss of 126,000 jobs instead of the reported gain.  Today, the real unemployment rate, when adding in those workers who have given up, is 12%.  That means that there are 9.3 million workers who are sitting home when they could actually be working.  A number almost equal to the number of jobs that Obama claims to have created.

Lastly, half of all the jobs created by the President have been low paying.  That's why median incomes continue to be lower than they were when he took office:
References:

Obama proudly announces 10m jobs created since he was elected - but he forgot to mention the 4.3m lost along the way: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2772360/Obama-proudly-announces-10m-jobs-created-elected-forgot-mention-4-3m-lost-way.html

Employment Report January 2009: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02062009.htm

August 2014 Employment Report: Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm

Alternative Measures of Unemployment: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

 Half Of All Jobs Created In The Past 3 Years Were Low-Paying: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/13/low-paying-jobs_n_3266737.html

Real Median Household Incomes: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sKzbjhbqoiM/VBhGdlZgLyI/AAAAAAAAglE/1296S9HIAwI/s1600/RealHousehold2013.PNG

Source of Graph: Census: Poverty Rate declined in 2013, Real Median Income increased slightly: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/09/census-poverty-rate-declined-in-2013.html

Monday, September 29, 2014

Beware of Jobless Claims Below 300,000

Every week, the Federal government releases a report of how many Americans have filed for first-time unemployment benefits in the prior week.  Typically called the "Jobless Report" or "Claims Report", it is closely watched because, logically, claims going lower is a good thing.  It means that fewer and fewer employers are laying workers off.

More closely watched than the actual number of first time claimants is the 4-week moving average of claims because they tend to bounce around from week to week and, without the averaging, it is too difficult to detect an actual trend; either upward or downward.  This week, the moving average was at 293,000.

The problem with the average being below 300,000 is that, historically and very oddly, this has resulted in a soon-to-be bottoming out of claims which precedes a sharp rise.  What is worse, is that a recession soon followed  Proof of this is shown in the following chart accessed from the Federal Reserve's Economic Database (aka FRED):

Click on chart to zoom in
As you can see, recessions (the shaded vertical areas on the chart) typically end with a peaking of jobless claims. Then, over time, the number slowly falls to some level just below 300,000 before  rising, until again, there is an actual recession.  For example, in September of 1982, the claims signaled the end of that recession at 641,750 filings.  Over the next 7+ years, the average dropped out at 289,750 in January of 1989 with a sharp uptick that resulted in another recession that began in September of 1990. Then jobs claims again peaked in March of 1991; only to bottom out in April of 2000 with 269,750 claims before quickly rising to the beginning of another recession in February of 2001.  Of course, the last "Great Recession" followed a bottoming of claims in February of 2006 with an average of 289,750.

So, there is definitely a very repeatable pattern of claims peaking; then, bottoming out; followed by a  sharper rise and, ultimately a recession. 

How low we will go and how fast we achieve it in this current trek below 300,000 is anyone's guess. But, one this is sure, if history repeats itself, lower claims are not such a good thing.

References:

FRED: 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=IC4WSA,

U.S. jobless claims up less than expected, point to firming labor market: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-economy-jobless-idUSKCN0HK1E420140925

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: An ISIS-Like Terrorist For Climate Change

One thing that should rile any champion of freedom, free speech, and free association, is the fact that ISIS is forcing non-Muslims to convert to Islam by telling them that they have to either convert or die.  In a way, Robert Kennedy Jr. is no better than ISIS when it comes to protecting  the freedoms that we all enjoy. Listen  to this asinine rant by this radical liberal regarding those who are climate change deniers or who are guilty (in his mind) of damaging the planet with businesses that produce CO2:



Sadly, this only shows that he and other climate alarmists are getting more and more frustrated by the fact that their cause is losing ground in the court of public opinion. So like any non-democratic dictator, tyrant, or bully, he wants any and all opposing thought to be shutdown by threatening those who disagree with jail time.

His targeting of the Koch Brothers for profiting from the oil business merely shows how politically motivated this Kennedy family fool is.  The Koch's are just 2 people out of thousands who are profiting from oil in this country.  But, because they are billionaires who give money to Republicans, Kennedy finds them more offensive than any other executives that he and others have labelled polluters.

By the way.  Kennedy receives royalty checks from three oil companies that he and the rest of the Kennedy clan own outright: Mokeen Oil, Kenoil and, the Arctic Royalty Limited Partnership.  Maybe, he too, like the Koch's, should be jailed for destroying the planet and profiting from it.

Lastly, Koch Industries was founded in 1940; almost 50 years prior to the world even talking about global warming and climate change.   Somehow, Kennedy now thinks that the father of the Koch brothers should have seen global warming coming and should not have started that evil oil producing and oil products conglomerate in 1940. It was companies like Koch Industries that provided the oil and materials that helped defeat the Nazis and the Japanese in World War II.

Reference: Live Leak:  Oil Company Owner, Robert Kennedy Jr. Rants Against Oil Companies, PJ Media Video Confrontation:  http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ace_1411422073

Koch Industries:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch_Industries

Friday, September 26, 2014

We Need A Quick And Cheap Screening Method To Control The Spread Of Ebola

Ebola is a disease that can take between 2 to 21 days to present symptoms.  When it does, the infected person looks to be suffering from some respiratory illness like the flu. However, when a person does display symptoms, they are already contagious to anyone who comes in contact with their bodily fluids.  So, while a cure is the ultimate goal, what is really needed is early detection.

Currently, there are efforts to screen people who are outbound from Ebola hotspots like Sierra Leone.  But, unfortunately, not everybody can be tested.  The focus, both because of cost and time, is limited to air travelers who, at the very least, present a fever.  This means that someone who is still in the incubation period, may not be detected, and could travel anywhere in the world.

When President Obama announced the U.S.'s efforts to fight Ebola, the one thing I think was missing was the funding to find a quick, cheap, and portable means to detect the disease before it shows symptoms.  Only then can the world be safe from travelers who may be infected but not yet presenting this deadly disease, and only then, can field workers contain it through extensive screenings.  Also, I am quite sure the survival rates would increase with early detection as well.

As a leader in a high tech world, our government should -- for the protection of it's people and all  people of the world -- fund the development of a cost effective (less than a dollar each) mobile screening test. Cost is of particular concern in third world countries.

References:

Obama: U.S. ready to take the lead in Ebola fight: http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/16/health/obama-ebola/

Researchers Race to Develop Field Tests to Confirm Ebola: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/researchers-race-to-develop-field-tests-to-confirm-ebola.html

Thursday, September 25, 2014

52 Reasons Why CO2 Is Not Responsible For Global Warming

Currently, there has been an 18-year pause in global warming and the climate scientists have been scrambling to explain it.  After all, this hiatus completely shoots down the CO2 theory since, in those 18 years, atmospheric CO2 has continued to rise at a rate of of about 2% a year. 

As of this writing, there are now 52 published scientific theories that explain the pause.  Fifty-Two!  And, each one of those 52 theories says that their particular theory, alone, is responsible.

Unwittingly, those 52 different explanations are simply saying that CO2 is not primarily responsible for global warming; as we have been led to believe.  Just think about it.  If each of those theories can single-handedly stop global warming; then, one can assume that each of those theories can single-handedly cause warming to start again.

All this proves is that climate change/global warming is not settled science as much as silly science. Surely, all 52 reasons can't all be right at the same time!

References:

Global Warming ‘Pause’ Extends to 17 Years 11 Months: http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/09/07/global-warming-pause-extends-to-17-years-11-months/

Excuse #52 for ‘the pause’ in global warming – natural climate variability as secular trends: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/11/excuse-52-for-the-pause-in-global-warming-natural-climate-variability-as-secular-trends/