Iowa Is More About Who Loses

The media seems focused on who will win the Iowa Caucus tonight, but Iowa is less about who wins and more about who loses. You see, Iowa's track record in picking the ultimate GOP candidate is somewhat flawed. Huckabee won the last time around but it was McCain who went on to be the GOP candidate. In the year that Reagan won the Presidency, his V.P., George H.W. Bush, actually won Iowa. So, don't expect tonight's winner to go on and be knighted at the GOP convention.

However, what Iowa is really good at is thinning the herd. Usually, the bottom two losers in the Iowa caucus will struggle going forward. That's because, psychologically, no one wants to back a loser. As a result, contributions tend to dry up and the polling numbers get weaker and weaker for those who finish far back. Eventually, the bottom two will wind up dropping out completely; usually because there's no money to keep their campaigns going. It's almost a given. Maybe, that's why Huntsman intentionally skipped Iowa.