Will We Get An Unadulterated GDP Report Tomorrow?

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will, for the first time this year, report on the nation's economic health for the first three months of 2012 in what is called the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The consensus is that it will show the economy slowing from 3% growth in the Fourth Quarter of last year to just 2.5% in this latest quarter.  At the same time, the BLS will report, for the fourth and last time, their take on the GDP growth for last quarter of 2011.

Now, anyone who has consistently read this blog knows that I'm skeptical of any "first time" report of economic numbers coming out of the Obama Administration.  I say this because week after week in reporting the jobless claims and month after month in reporting the GDP growth, there's been a consistent habit of reporting better than expected numbers that are ultimately revised to actually show worse than expected performance.  For that reason, I'm betting that this first pass on First Quarter GDP will exceed the consensus estimate; maybe even coming in at 3%.   But, then, over the next 3 months, expect that number to be revised downward until finally it is worse than the current consensus estimate of 2.5%.  That's also why I wouldn't be surprised to see the last quarter of 2011 revised well down from the previously reported 3%.

Of course, I could be all wet in my skepticism.  We'll just have to see.