Jobless Claims at 14-Year Low: Because of ObamaCare?

Does anyone really think the current economy and job market is as good as it was in 2007 when the unemployment rate was at the historically low level of 4.6%?  So, then, why was the Labor Department able to report that the weekly jobless claims number, at 264,000, reached a 14-year low?  Truly, an unbelievable drop of 23,000 in a single week.  This despite the fact that the current unemployment rate is 1.3 percentage points higher than it was in 2007 at 5.9%.

Two things might explain this.

First, we could be seeing "number manipulations" in the run up to the November 4th elections.  Let's not forget that Obama's Census Bureau was caught doing just that very thing before the 2012 elections.  Therefore, there is no reason not to think that his Labor Department couldn't be doing the same with the unemployment claims number.  Having a multi-year low in claims, with the mid-term elections only 2-1/2 weeks away is quite a coincidence.  And, like the last time, the number juggling probably won't be exposed until months after the election.

The other reason might be the direct result of an increasing trend by American businesses towards hiring fewer full-time workers; and going with temporary help instead, or using temp services, contract labor, freelancers, consultants etc.  All of which are not eligible for unemployment benefits when their services are no longer needed.

You can blame this trend of not hiring full time workers on ObamaCare.

Under the ObamaCare law, a business  must provide health insurance to its full time employees or pay a tax (really, a fine) if it has more than 50 employees, all of which are working at least 30 hours a week.  Hiring temporary help or contracting outside labor can easily keep small businesses and franchisees from reaching that 50 full-time worker threshold. It also means they don't have to subsidize FICA, unemployment insurance, or provide benefits such as paid vacations and pensions.

While some economists and politicians might think that lower jobless claims is a good thing, it may be the result of a growing trend towards avoiding employer-provided health insurance.  Something that one of the chief architects of ObamaCare, Ezekiel Emanuel, recently predicted.

So, now we have a healthcare law that was supposed to increase the number of insured but, instead, is doing just the opposite.  At the same time, it is putting American workers at risk because fewer of them will be eligible for unemployment benefits when laid off. 


References:

November 16: New Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Since 2000: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/business/economy/new-unemployment-claims-fall-to-their-lowest-since-2000.html


US companies increasingly turning to temporary workers to fill positions: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/07/08/us-companies-increasingly-turning-to-temporary-workers-to-fill-positions/

For Many Americans, 'Temp' Work Becomes Permanent Way of Life: http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/in-plain-sight/many-americans-temp-work-becomes-permanent-way-life-n81071

Temporary jobs becoming a permanent fixture: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/07/07/temporary-jobs-becoming-permanent-fixture/2496585/

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Census 'faked' 2012 election jobs report: http://nypost.com/2013/11/18/census-faked-2012-election-jobs-report/

Obamacare architect: Law will cause ‘the end of employer-sponsored insurance’: http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/20/obamacare-architect-law-will-cause-the-end-of-employer-sponsored-insurance/

Psst! Job Losses Are On The Rise Again!

Ever since the employment situation hit rock bottom in 2010, the number of weekly jobless claims has steadily fallen.  That is until August of 2013.  At that juncture, the decline of job losses just bottomed out.  Now, it appears that joblessness is again on the rise:

Click to Enlarge

Obviously, the trend is negative. I could speculate and say its because of ObamaCare.  Or, it could be a signal that the economy is slowing again and that we might be headed for another recession.  Whatever the reason, the trend is months long and moving decidedly upwards.  That's too long for it to be brushed off as some kind of statistical fluke.

Obama's Labor Department Continues To Campaign For Him With Questionable Jobs Numbers

Last Friday, Obama's Labor Department suddenly found 873,000 workers who "miraculously" came out of hiding and found jobs.  This was the largest increase in the workforce in 29 years; driving the unemployment rate down below 8% to 7.8%.  Conveniently, this "great news" came just a month before the elections.   Now, just 6 days later, we have another Obama-benefiting number from that same Labor Department:  First time jobless claims dropped by a whopping 30,000 last week.  The biggest drop in 4-1/2 years.

With nothing in the Labor Department's official press release to explain this sudden downturn in job losses, the Wall Street Journal had to chase down a Department of Labor's economist for the reason.  The response they got was reported as follows:

"...a Labor economist said one "large" state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease."

This is total dishonesty by, again, a Labor Department that seems to be manipulating the numbers in the President's favor. There wasn't a single comment, or footnote, or asterisk in their press release to make the above fact known.  The Labor Department simply published the numbers as fact.  As a result, we get unbridled headlines like "Jobless Claims Plunge" and the "Biggest Drop In 4-1/2 years".   All benefiting Obama ahead of the election.

--- Labor Department Press Release: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm#.UHbullFEbf0

--- Wall Street Journal Article: U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to 339,000: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444799904578050233117300440.html

The Big Drop In This Morning's Jobless Claims Was Due To 4th Of July

Two years ago, on the 22nd of July, I wrote this:  

It Was All Because Of A National Holiday, Stupid!

As I had predicted three weeks ago, the jobless claims would fall following the three-day, Fourth-of-July holiday. Also as predicted, the economists would be shocked (as in the case this morning) when the jobless claims jumped significantly to be greater than expected (Click here to See Story: Jobless claims rise more than expected last week). Actually, the claims number jumped to 464,000 from the "expected" consensus of only 445,000. And that number was markedly higher than last week's reported 427,000.

Well, this morning the jobless claims fell by a shocking 26,000 claims.  And, of course, the experts seemed to be grasping at straws, like fewer auto plant closures, to explain the drop.  But, as I had indicated in the headline of my July 22, 2010 blog entry: "It Was All Because Of A National Holiday, Stupid!"  And just like 2010, you can expect the jobless claims to rise again to their usual lousy levels.

Story on the claims drop: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-12/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-plunge-as-fewer-auto-plants-shut-down

And So, The Jobless Claims Games Continue

Yesterday morning, the news media was shocked and dismayed to see that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose to a 4-month high at 380,000.

Just three weeks ago the claims number was reported to be 348,000 -- a four-year low -- and the left-wing news media was doing victory laps for Obama.  The always left-wing LA Times wrote: "New claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week to 348,000, a new four-year low as the economic recovery continues to accelerate."  But, what most people don't seem to realize is that the very next week that 348,000 number was corrected upwards to 368,500.  Not exactly a four-year low anymore. And, certainly not an economy that the Times claimed was accelerating.

While it is obvious that we are much better off than last year when claims consistently remained above the 400,000 mark, this economy is not roaring back.  But, in an election year, expect the news media to nuance everything to help Obama out.  In fact, this morning's terrible claims number is being tamped down by opinion writers and reporters finding every possible excuse for it.  Some idiots even blamed the number on  the Easter holiday.  The silliness of that argument is that any holiday usually results in an abnormally lower claims number because the unemployment offices are typically closed for at least one day and people are out of town and unable to file. If anything, the 380,000 might be understated and subject to an upward revision next week.  Something that the Obama Labor Department has consistently done for the last three years.  That's why, almost every week, the news headlines will read something like: "Jobless Claims Fall Again."   But, in fact, the "Fall" is always due to a revision upwards of the prior week's number; a game that continually results in better headlines for the President.  In reality, the claims number is merely running in place.

Weekly Jobless Claims Still Above 400,000

This morning's jobless claims number of 414,000 was, once again, above the "mystical" level of 400,000 that liberals seem to be eagerly waiting for but, which, has only happened a handful to times since this President took office; as if, somehow, a jobless claims number of 399,999 would be something to really cheer about.

But, this week there was no bogeyman for the left-wing media to blame for the continuation of claims above 400,000; like the "Verizon Strike" excuse of 3 weeks ago. If you recall, the media tried to give Obama cover for the lousy August 25th number of 417,000 claims by fraudulently claiming that it was all due to the Verizon workers strike that drove the number above 400,000 (Click here to See My Blog Entry of August 25th: Verizon Strike Blamed For Jump In Jobless Claims? ). Yet, since then and even before the Verizon strike, the claims number had always been above the 400,000 level. The only thing the left-wing media could come up with about this week's crappy numbers were the words: "claims rose unexpectedly".

The reality is that Obama has a 400,000 jobless claims number problem. That's why we continue to have an unemployment rate above 9%. To really make any dent in that unemployment rate and get those 14 million out-of-work Americans back to work, we really need the jobless claims number to be below 300,000; not just below 400,000. And, I, for one, just don't see that happening for a very long time; no matter what Obama unveils tonight in his jobs speech. His stimulus didn't work and I am quite sure that tonight's plan won't work. That's because Obama is mired in failed Keynesian and silly academic beliefs and is totally clueless as to what the economy needs to actually create jobs.