A Really, Really Ugly Jobs Report

Superficially, the headlines for the May job's report don't look that bad.  38,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate fell to a post recession low of 4.7% from 5% in April.

However, that 38,000 is the lowest number of jobs created in the last 5 years.  Also understand, that in order to lower the unemployment rate by 3-tenths of a percent from the month prior, 477,000 jobs would have had to be created against April's workforce size of 159.9 million workers.  So, you have to wonder what gives?

Well the "what" that "gives" is that the number of unemployed fell by 484,000, and at the same time, the size of the workforce fell by 458,000.  This tells me that the majority of people who left the workforce were unemployed and have just given up looking for work in frustration.  As such, an unemployed worker who is not looking for work is not counted as  part of the workforce.  This is also why the number of long term unemployed fell by 178,000.  Most likely, because they stopped looking for work and not because they found it.  If they had found work, the number of jobs created would be higher than 38,000.

The bad new doesn't stop there.  The number workers who are working part time because they are not able to find full time work, rose by an amazing 468,000, to a total of 6.4 million.  To put this into perspective, just 4.5 million workers were in this same employment condition in May 2007.

The bottom line is that we have an economy that isn't producing jobs; despite the spin by  President Obama.  We have too many people giving up looking for work and too many people working part time for economic reasons.  If this condition extends into next month, we could be looking at the beginning of a recession.

References:

May 2016 Employment Situation Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

May 2007 Employment Situation Report:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06012007.pdf

Jobs Report: 400,000 Retirees Can't Retire

In the April jobs report, we were told that 223,000 jobs were created, if you can believe that number.  Remember that we were also told that 126,000 jobs were created in March.  Now, in the April report, March's horrible number has only gotten uglier as it was revised to 85,000, but no one in the media seems to want to report this.

While the March revision is quite disturbing, another and even more upsetting fact is that those in the workforce that are 65 and older rose by 400,000 in one year's time--from 7.4 million to 7.8 million:

Click on image to enlarge

So, in essence, more than 1000 seniors a day are either coming out of retirement or working past the age of 65.  In either case, these are jobs that younger persons should be taking but aren't.  It is  symptomatic of an aging population that needs to work into their retirement years because their retirement incomes are too low to support them.  It is also a growing problem.  A year ago last April, the over 65 workforce only grew by 300,000; making this year's growth a 33% increase.  How sad that nearly 1-in-6 of the nearly 45 million seniors find themselves having to work in order to survive their "golden" years.

References:

April 2015 Jobs Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

March job gains 126,000; miss 248,000 forecast - USA Today: https://www.google.com/search?q=126%2C000+jobs&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

April 2014 Jobs Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_05022014.pdf

USA Quick Facts Population and Percent over 65: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

March's Horrible Jobs Report Was Clearly Expected

I'm always amazed how shocked economists are when the real numbers substantially miss their projections.  Last month's job's report was no different. The estimate for job creation was 250,000.  The economists at Briefing.com had theirs even higher at 260,000.  The actual number came in at 126,000.  A monumental miss.

Why did the economic community get it so wrong?  Well, all too often, economists work in a vacuum.  First, they were fooled into believing that the jobs number would be strong because of February's 295,000 total.  This after another strong number in January.

In doing so, economists were ignoring a simple economic principal: Job creation is a direct a result of increased business activity.

Primarily, this means that jobs are created if consumers are buying and spending more than they had in the past. Usually, because their incomes are rising. Also, any increased business activity means job creation as a result of new businesses being formed.  A new beauty shop with 5 new employees. A new fast food restaurant could add as many as 52 new jobs to the economy. 

There were several indicators that none of these things were happening.

In the three months of December 2014, and January and February of 2015, retail sales fell.  The reason for this is simple.  People haven't received enough of an increase in wages to drive retail sales.  For example, in the December jobs report, the average hourly wage for all employees in the labor market actually decreased by 7 cents.  Weekly earnings only increased by a whopping $21 from $829.03 to $850.12.  That's just two one-hundreds of a percent increase in income in a year's time.  Hardly enough to drive the economy and create jobs.  Then in a recent poll by Deutsche Bank, it was determined that 47% of Americans save nothing and, as such, are probably living paycheck to paycheck. The lack of retail sales is why businesses like Target are laying off 3,100 workers and why an untold number may be laid off as a result of the Radio Shack bankruptcy and store closures.

Additionally, business creation is in decline due to the lack of small business lending.  Newer and younger companies create more jobs than older companies, and much of this decline is a direct result of policies from the Obama Administration.

Simply, we are in a period of economic decline.  Without good wages, there won't be enough people buying things to drive the economy.  Proof of this comes from the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPnow computer algorithm projecting that the first quarter economic output will be near zero growth.  No growth equals no jobs.

References:

March 2015 Nonfarm Payrolls: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2015/4/3

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION—MARCH 2015: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The Employment Situation - February 2015: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062015.pdf

the employment situation—january 2015: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02062015.pdf

The Employment Situation - December 2014: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092015.pdf

Retail Sales Down for Third Straight Month, Automobiles Put Brakes On: http://www.industryweek.com/finance/retail-sales-down-third-straight-month-automobiles-put-brakes

Target eliminates 3100 jobs - MPR News: http://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/03/10/target-layoffs

Target layoffs will hit 1,700 today, with another 1,400 jobs going unfilled: http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/295752841.html

These are the stores RadioShack is closing - CNNMoney: http://money.cnn.com/interactive/technology/radio-shack-closings-map/

Half America Doesn't Save: http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-america-doesnt-save-any-money-2015-3

GOP presidential contenders need to start talking about ways to reverse the decline of entrepreneurship: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/opinion-blog/2015/02/19/decline-of-small-business-hurts-economic-recovery-jobs-growth

Who Creates Jobs?: http://www.nber.org/digest/feb11/w16300.html

The consequences of the anti-business Obama administration: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/04/06/the-insiders-the-consequences-of-the-anti-business-obama-administration/

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.cfm

Great Jobs Report? Think Twice..

As with every jobs report since the recovery began, the issue has always been quantity rather than quality.  And, February's report is no different.

Sure.  295,000 jobs were created and the employment rate fell to 5.5%.  The far-left Politicus USA website points out that this is the 12th straight month of job creation over 200,000 and the lowest unemployment rate since 2008, plus all other kinds of statistics to cheer-lead the recovery under Obama.  But, one sorry fact remains:  Americans aren't getting better-paying jobs.

In February, the average hourly wage for all jobs in the U.S. only rose 3 cents or about $1.04 per week for four weeks. Annualized that's just $12.48.  How would you spend your $12.48?

The simple fact is that, under President Obama, our economy continues to create lack-luster, low paying jobs.  In fact, of those 295,000 created, Zero Hedge has identified that 152,000 (more than half) were low paying with the most gains (62,000) in the leisure and hospitality industries. Obviously, we're real good at creating jobs for waitresses, bartenders, and hotel maids.

References:

Politicus USA: Fox News Ignores Latest Jobs Report Showing Lowest Unemployment Rate In Seven Years: http://www.politicususa.com/2015/03/06/fox-news-ignores-latest-jobs-report-shows-lowest-unemployment-rate-years.html

Recovery Has Created Far More Low-Wage Jobs Than Better-Paid Ones: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/business/economy/recovery-has-created-far-more-low-wage-jobs-than-better-paid-ones.html

February 2015: Employment Situation Report (Page 3): http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

A great jobs report for waitstaff and bartenders: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102484051

Why No Wage Increases: More Than Half Of Jobs Added In February Were Lowest-Quality, Lowest-Paying: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/why-no-wage-increases-more-half-jobs-added-february-were-lowest-quality-lowest-payin

November Jobs Report: Long On Quantity...Short On Quality.

President Obama and his adoring media could barely catch their breaths when reporting that 321,000 jobs were created in November. The liberal MSNBC host Rachael Maddow opened by saying:

Any Republicans asking “where are the jobs?” today should probably have their heads examined.

The only problem with the 321,000 jobs is the quality of that number. With further examination, you would see that the full-time workforce fell by 150,000 jobs and, the part-time workforce rose by 77,000.  In other words, once again, good full-time jobs are suffering at the hands of more and more part time employment; as this chart clearly shows:

Since 2010 and the passage of ObamaCare, the percentage of part-time employment in the workforce has soared.

This is a problem that we have seen all along as companies struggle to avoid paying the employer mandate of ObamaCare by converting full time employees to those working less than 30 hours a week. This is also why, in so many polls, Americans still think that the economy -- especially jobs -- is the number one priority facing this country.

References:

U.S. job growth soars, tops 300k | MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/us-job-growth-soars-tops-300k

Obama hails strong jobs report: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/226132-obama-hails-strong-jobs-report

Hold on: Jobs report wasn't so great after all: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102243878

75 Percent Of Jobs Created This Year Were Part-Time Due to Weak Economy and ObamaCare: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/21/part-time-job-creation_n_3788365.html

Half Of All Jobs Created In The Past 3 Years Were Low-Paying: Study: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/13/low-paying-jobs_n_3266737.html

PollingReport.com: Priorities and Problems: http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm

Only a Third of Americans Work Full Time

In the latest employment report, it was stated that only 119 million people are working full time.  That is only about one third of the nearly 320 million people making up the country's population.

While this is up from a low of 116 million in January, it is still a very sad statement on the jobs situation.  It means that too few of our people are paying all the taxes necessary to support the multitude of government programs such as Medicare and Social Security, which depend on income taxes collected from those full-time workers.  This is why these two programs are destined to run out of money faster than previously thought.

References:


The Good And The Not- So-Good News About US Jobs In One Chart: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-06/good-and-not-so-good-news-about-us-jobs-one-chart

May Employment (Situation) Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Monthly number of full-time employees in the United States from May 2013 to May 2014 (in millions, unadjusted): http://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/

The April's Jobs Report: More A Story Of Giving Up Looking For Work

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7% in March to 6.3% last month.  It did so by adding only 288,000 jobs.  Of course the relative math here, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

If you have a labor force of 156.2 million workers in March going into April and, you multiply that by the four tenths of a percent drop in the unemployment rate, you come up with 625,000.  That's how many workers would have had to actually find work in order for the unemployment rate to drop to 6.3%.  So, obviously, something else happened in April.

That something else is the fact that 806,000 workers simply dropped out of the labor force.  Of that number, 783,000 where considered to be discouraged workers; with the remaining  23,000 being actual retirees.  By definition, a discouraged worker is a person of working age; capable of work; wanting to work; but, in the frustration of not finding a job, has just given up looking.  Because of this, the Bureau of Labor Statistic no longer considers them part of the workforce and, as a result, they are the primary reason that the unemployment rate dropped so dramatically.  In other words, twice as many workers stopped looking for a job as those who found one. 

For those who would believe that baby boomers, who are retiring at a rate of 10,000 a day are responsible for the lowering of the workforce, the so-noted 23,000 retirees hardly squares with this false belief.  The reality is that we had a true unemployment rate of 12.3% in April when that month's 9.5 million discouraged workers are taken into account.  All told, we actually have 19.2 million unemployed Americans.  Not the published 9.7 million.  This is horrible.  Especially, considering the fact that we are closing in on a day when more people will have given up looking for work than there are those who are actively pursuing it.  This has not happened since the Great Depression.  This despite the fact that the recession ended nearly 5 years ago.

References:

April Employment Situation Report Overview: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Definition of Discouraged Worker: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discouraged_worker.asp

April Employment Situation Report: Table A-15: Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Rising Long-Term Unemployment: Proof Of Obama's Mishandling of the Economy

Recently, when the February jobs report was released, a number of Democrats and left-leaning media types jumped on the fact that the number of people who were out of work for more than 26 weeks had suddenly risen by 203,000.  Conveniently proving that the Democrats proposed extension of long-term unemployment benefits -- which are now stalled in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives -- is sorely needed.  Of course, some on the political right would say that the sudden jump in this number is another negative in Obama's handling of the economy and that the President's over-regulation is why we have so many long-term unemployed.  So to prove those people wrong, the far-left MSNBC was compelled to come to Obama's defense by showing long-term unemployment declining every year since he took office:

While that chart certainly shows what might look like a positive for Obama, the chart they aren't showing you is this one from the Huffington Post:

It clearly shows that we are at record high levels of long-term unemployment as a percentage of overall unemployment.  Of the 10.5 million unemployed in February, 37% are still long-term unemployed. That's more than double than the absolutely worst levels under any president since 1948. At the current rate of decline, we won't get back to pre-recession levels for decades to come. 

As far as extending unemployment benefits are concerned, we shouldn't be concerned.  What is being ignored in all of this debate over extending benefits is the fact that there are so many so-called safety nets in the system that people are better off without that unemployment check.  Without it, they get a welfare check, free Medicaid, housing assistance, subsidized child care, Earned Income Tax Credits, free Obama-phones, Food Stamps, and oh so many goodies that it just doesn't pay to have a job.  So, instead of Democrats telling the truth that they have made it better not to work, they, instead, want to use extended unemployment benefits as a wedge election issue to once again make Republicans look heartless.

References:

Long-term unemployment rises: http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/jobs-report-february

February Unemployment Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Strong Jobs Report Could Mean Bad News For Unemployment Benefits: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/06/unemployment-rate_n_4235332.html

The Real Employment Numbers That Never See Headlines

When the employment report is issued each month, most people and, certainly the media, are only interested in two numbers: (1) the number of jobs created or lost in that month and (2) the resulting unemployment rate.  But, those two numbers are a result of some pretty heavy-handed massaging in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls "seasonal adjustments".  Seasonal adjustments have always come under fire, especially lately, from a lot of well-respected economists, because the "adjustments" seem to be very large and, thus, questionably accurate.

Take, for example, the latest jobs report.  The headline says that 113,000 jobs were created with a resulting drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.6%.  Now, to any logical observer, this makes perfect sense in that a falling unemployment rate must mean that some number of jobs had to have been created to lower the rate. But, if you dig deeper into the January jobs report, you would see a completely different picture when it comes to the unadjusted numbers.

According to the raw data in Table A-2, whites, which make up 79% of the workforce,  saw their unemployment rate go up in January by 9%; from 5.7% to 6.2%.  Yet, after seasonal adjustment, whites  remained the same at 5.7% as in December.  The raw data also said that blacks also saw their rate go up by 9%; from 11.6% to 12.6%.  After adjustment, their final number was 12.1%. While there is no adjustment data available for Asians, their unemployment rate went up 17% from 4.1% to 4.8%.  All three groups added together represent 96% of the workforce and all saw substantial losses in employment.  Yet, the final employment number says jobs were created and the unemployment rate fell.

Lastly, I would be remiss if I didn't include an absolutely horrendous fact that our President wouldn't want you to know when he's out there touting the lowest unemployment rate during his presidency.  That fact is that teen unemployment among blacks now sits at 39% (raw) or 38% after adjustment.  In the city of Chicago, the President's hometown, black male teens are at a unbelievable 92% unemployment rate.  Maybe that's why gang membership has risen 40% since Obama became President. 


References:

Has The Fed Been Fooled By Phony Jobs Numbers?: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/has-the-fed-been-fooled-by-phony-jobs-numbers-.html

Table A: January Employment Situation Report: Seasonally Adjusted Results:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Table A-2: January Employment Situation Report: Raw And Seasonally Adjusted Numbers by Race, Age, and Sex: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm

New Urban League study finds 92 percent of African American male teens are unemployed: http://www.myfoxchicago.com/story/24486694/new-study-finds-92-percent-of-african-american-male-teens-are-unemployed

FBI: Gang Membership Up 40% Since 2009: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2013/07/confirmed-gang-membership-up-40-under-obama-violent-attacks-on-whites-up-18/

The January Jobs Report: Shooting Holes In December's Baby Boomer Excuse For A Shrinking Workforce

Last month, when the workforce declined by 347,000 in the December Jobs Report and, as a result, the unemployment rate fell dramatically by three-tenths of a percent, a number of liberals blamed the decline in workers on the retirement of baby boomers.  I countered that with a blog entry titled: "The Big Lie: Workforce Contractions Are Due To Baby Boomer Retirements".

Well, this month, in the January Jobs Report, the workforce grew by 523,000 from 154.937 million  to 155.460 million workers.  Strangely, we haven't heard one peep out of all those idiots that had used the "baby boom retirement" excuse for a shrinking workforce in December. 

Reference:

January Jobs Report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

USA Today: Tom Mullaney: Jobs report highlights the aging of Baby Boomers: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/01/12/labor-force-participation/4413811/

The Big Lie: Workforce Contraction Are Due To Baby Boomer Retirements: http://cuttingthroughthefog.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-big-lie-workforce-contractions-are.html

The Employment Report Just Doesn't Add Up

Last month, the September Employment Situation Report said the unemployment rate dropped by 3-tenths of a percent to 7.8% while only adding 114,000 jobs to the economy.  This is surprising unto itself because you would need to add roughly 450,000 jobs add to our workforce of around 150 million workers in order to lower the unemployment rate by that much. Then, last Friday, the October report said that the economy added even more jobs.  This time 171,000.  Yet, the unemployment rate didn't fall.  Instead, it rose to 7.9%.  So, obviously, something is happening beyond just simply adding jobs for it to illogically fluctuate over the last two months.

Then, when you take a look at the number of unemployed, things get even murkier.  In August, the number of the "official" unemployed was 12.544 million workers.  In September, when the unemployment rate fell 3-tenths, the number of unemployed dropped  to 12.088 million.  On a net basis, this implies that 456,000 previously unemployed workers found jobs from August to September.  However, the report said that only 114,000 found jobs.  Similarly, in the October report, the number of total unemployed increased by 170,000; which, this time, is almost exactly equal to the 171,000 jobs added last month.

Then there's this other inconsistency.  According to the September report, 873,000 suddenly found work after not having looked for work in the prior month.  Yet, somehow, that number was not included in the job gains for the month.  More importantly, that 873,000 increase should have lowered the unemployment rate down to 7.2%.  But, it didn't.  Because, to do so, would have really raised a red flag.  Instead, that number,  along with the total mix of numbers, was used to so dramatically and conveniently lower the unemployment rate to below 8%.

Then, in October, another 578,000 suddenly found work.  Again, that number was not included in the number of jobs being added. What that 578,000 did is kept the unemployment rate from not going above that psychological impacting level of 8%; holding it at a convenient 7.9%.


The fact is that, conveniently, a total of 1.5 million people showed up in the last two employment reports as workers who suddenly found jobs; politically helping Obama in the last two months before the election.  If what I am implying is right, we should see a significant rise in the unemployment rate next month or the month after.  If so, it will prove that the numbers were manipulated for political reasons.  But, mark my words, nobody in the liberal media will say a word about it.  Instead, if Romney wins, that very same media will still be out trying to prove that, somehow, he stole the election through deceit and lies.

References:

--- Market Watch: September Employment Report: 873,000 people in the household survey said they found jobs while the official job creation only stands at 117,000:  http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-05/economy/34268040_1_jobless-rate-number-of-new-jobs-unemployment-rate

--- Bureau of Labor Statistics: October Employment Situation Report:  Workforce Increases by 578,000 while the economy only added only 171,000 Jobs: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

--- Bureau of Labor Statistics: August, September, October Employment Situation table: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Debunking The 10,000 Baby Boomers Retiring Every Day Claim

This post has been updated.  Please go to this link: http://cuttingthroughthefog.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-big-lie-workforce-contractions-are.html

Forget The Obama Hype, This Was A Very Bad Jobs Report

Obama will once again hit the airways and tell us how many consecutive months he's had job creation under his "plan" and, as usual, he will also say that his Administration has created x-million jobs.  But all that is just so much political B.S.  You have to ask yourself this simple question: "If the unemployment rate rose last month, how is it possible that the economy could have actually added 163,000 new jobs?"  The answer is as simple as the question.  The workforce size was being manipulated.

Here are the "real" facts.  For 42 consecutive months, the unemployment rate has been above 8%.  In the last 4 months, the rate has gone "up" from 8.1% in April to 8.2% in May; and, from 8.2% in June to 8.3% in July.  That's the wrong direction.  When Obama took office, the unemployment rate was 7.6%. At the same time, the workforce size was 154.2 million and there were 11.6 million unemployed.  Today, the workforce size is 155 million workers and the unemployed number is 12.8 million.  Net those numbers all together and you would find that the economy actually lost 400,000 jobs since Obama took office; not created them.  The bottom line is that you couldn't have created x-million jobs when, on a net basis, our economy actually lost jobs.

Finally, let's not forget this propagandist chart that the President's economic team put together to justify a near trillion dollars in stimulus spending:

Click on graph for enlarged view

According to the chart, the stimulus was to keep unemployment under 7.9%; and, that, by now, the unemployment rate should be around 5.6%.  Instead, the economy did even worse than what Obama said it would do without stimulus.  Without stimulus, unemployment was supposed to top out at 9%.  In actuality, with stimulus, the unemployment rate hit 10.2%.  Without stimulus, today's unemployment rate was projected to be at about 6%.  Yet, for months, the stimulus has kept us consistently above 8%.  And, now, it's rising again..

Here's a Daily News story on the jobs report: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weak-hiring-expected-fourth-straight-month-article-1.1128191

The Baby Boomers Are Lowering The Workforce Participation Rate?

Following a week ago last Friday's disastrous job creation number and, especially, the record low workforce participation rate, liberals have been scrambling to come up with an excuse for the number of Americans no longer working.  The answer they came up with is that the declining labor participation rate is all due to the rate at which baby boomers are retiring.  I even had one "anonymous drive-by" idiot throw that in my face with a comment left on that Friday's blog entry about the employment report. 

But, the "baby boomer" excuse is a complete exaggeration.

First off, the baby boomer generation only started  to hit retirement age as of last year; and, the process won't be complete until 2029. Yet, the workforce participation rate has fallen each year since 2008; starting with the height of the recession and continuing through Obama's more than three years in office.  Secondly, there is no automatic retirement age for most seniors.  Many stay in the workforce because they just can't live off of Social Security checks and some small pension they may be getting.  Lastly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics own data, the participation rate for the senior age group of 55 and older has remained constantly high with every other age group seeing substantial declines in the last four years.  (Click to see graph).

Those economists and media types who want to proliferate the "baby boomer lie" are totally in the tank for Obama and are a disgrace to the concept of fair and factual reporting. They have merely replaced the facts with  political ideology.

Striking Verizon Workers Were Counted As Unemployed???

According to the FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) own website, workers involved in an "industrial dispute" -- a strike -- are counted as being employed and should never appear in any section of the Monthly Unemployment Report as being unemployed. Here's the actual text from the pertinent BLS FAQ:

"Who is counted as employed?

Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Persons also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week, whether they were paid or not, because they were:

On vacation
Ill
Experiencing child-care problems
Taking care of some other family or personal obligation
On maternity or paternity leave
Involved in an industrial dispute
Prevented from working by bad weather"

Yet, in this morning's Employment Report, 45,000 striking Verizon workers were tallied in the unemployment stats for "Information Technology" workers and, then, were rolled up into the final count; reflecting zero jobs being gained for the month. This fact was duly noted in the first paragraph of this morning's BLS news release, when it was stated: "a decline in information employment reflected a strike". (Click here to see the actual BLS new release) However, if the striking workers were properly counted as being employed, there should have been a job growth of 45,000 jobs for the month instead of the reported zero.

So, what gives? Are striking workers now suddenly being included as part of the unemployment stats when they have never been counted this way in the past? Was the inclusion of the striking Verizon workers a convenient way of making this report look worse than it really was in order to help Obama get support for his jobs speech and plan of next week? Something really stinks on ice with this one! After all, the BLS is a government agency that reports to Obama through the Secretary of Labor and, I wouldn't put it passed that agency to tweak the numbers for the greatest possible political leverage. Then, next month, the BLS will just correct the problem with one of their many and constant statistical "revisions". In the meantime, we just might be seeing another one of Obama's deceitful manipulations of the facts.

Going Forward, The Unemployment Rate Should Rise

Following this morning's reported gain of 116,000 workers in the labor force for July, a few too many on the political left were popping the champagne corks and declaring the trend is now positive for job growth. But, what most seem to be forgetting (probably, intentionally) was the Mass Layoffs report that was just issued a couple of days ago. That report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics indicated that "announced" layoffs in the private sector rose to a 16-month high (Click here to See Story: U.S. Layoffs Soar to 16-Month High in July).

The reality is that the amount of announced layoffs seems to be accelerating and that doesn't bode well for any future unemployment reports.

The Big Stimulus Package Lie!

Over and over, you will hear from Democrats that the Stimulus has worked because, before it, we were losing over 700,000 jobs per month. Superficially, this is true.

Simply looking at the Bureau Of Labor and Statistics own tracking chart of the monthly job gains and losses over the last two years, one could easily, and falsely, come to that same conclusion:

First off, the chart clearly shows that job losses peaked in January of 2009 at a level of just under 800,000 additional unemployed. Then, following Obama taking Office and the passage of the Stimulus Package, the losses began to decline; just as the left keeps touting. In fact, by August, the job losses had been slashed by nearly 80% to a level that was a little over 200,000 newly unemployed for that month.

But was the abatement of job losses really due to the Stimulus? Not, hardly!

The left seems to conveniently forget that the first Stimulus moneys didn't even start to going out the door until August of 2009; and, for many government agencies, even later than that (Click here to See a Typical Story: August a Busy Month for DHS Stimulus Spending). Much of the delay in awarding contracts for job creation was due to the slow Washington D.C. bureaucracy wasting months trying to figure out what to do and what the rules would be. The joke at the time was that all those presumably shovel-ready jobs weren't quite ready for prime time. In addition, It took weeks to setup up procedures for the approval and distribution of funding for any projects under the Package. But, by the time the initial projects were finally approved, this nation's job losses had "naturally" slowed on their own as our economy was busily trying to heal itself without any stimulus moneys.

Then, too, in early 2010, the job's picture moved from negative to positive. But, this, too, wasn't due to the Stimulus. Instead, it was primarily due to the hiring of temporary census workers. Now, in this latest report for June -- the first report since the hiring of the census takers was over -- we are again seeing losses, and those losses will only grow larger as the exacerbating effect of the census layoffs takes hold. With that in mind, most economists think that the unemployment rate will again go above 10%.

The lies associated with the Stimulus Package's ability to create jobs "and" the gullibility of the American public to believe those lies is amazing to me. What's worse, we have a group of noted economists in this country who are touting the benefits of the Stimulus but, in doing so, completely ignore the real facts surrounding the actual payouts of stimulus money. This is a simple denial by a group of supposed experts who don't want to admit that their Keynesian/demand-side economic theory is all wet in any practical application. Then, too, their personal politics might be clouding their opinions.

Surely, if the Stimulus Package was truly successful, we'd be basking in job growth and we wouldn't be hearing the excuse that the Stimulus is working "but" it needs to be even bigger. Let's not forget that, originally, long before Obama got into office, his team of economic gurus thought that $120 billion would be adequate to kick start the economy (Click here to See Story: Obama unveils $120 billion stimulus plan). Later, once elected and in office, that number soared to $787 billion. Now, some of those same people who originally thought the $120 billion would be fine, seem to think another trillion dollars is needed to get the economy going again. What, then, after that second trillion dollars doesn't work? $3 trillion? $4 trillion? Just how much of our money are these people willing to piss away to keep justifying a flawed economic theory?

The trouble with lying is that you have to keep lying in order to cover up the truth that you were attempting to hide with the first lie. Generally speaking, numbers don't lie when they're kept in their proper context. However, all too often, people are willing to pluck numbers out of that context and lie about them in order to advance their own personal agendas and/or to cover up or hide their original lie. And, that, my friends, is where Obama and the Democrats are today regarding the impact of the Stimulus Program!

Only 20,000 Real Jobs Added To The Economy In May

The May Unemployment Report is out and the numbers are astoundingly dismal. Like I predicted in yesterday's blog, the bulk of the jobs created in May were for temporary Census worker positions. In fact, of the 431,000 jobs created, 411,000 were Census workers; leaving the net increase to be about 20,000. Further, previously reported numbers for March and April, were lowered with a loss of an extra 22,000 jobs. Therefore, in reality, the 20,000 jobs created in May were more than offset by the 22,000 additionally lost in the prior two months (Click here to See Story: Jobs Growth Is Disappointing Due to Weak Private Sector).

Once again, the economists were shocked. They had predicted a growth of 500,000 to 575,000 jobs for the month. Economist and Presidential cheerleader at Moody's, Mark Zandi, had actually predicted 575,000 jobs in May (Click here to See Story: Census hiring to spike job figures in May). For reference, Zandi is one of the economic idiots who wholeheartedly backed the failed Obama/Democrat stimulus package. But, if Zandi and the rest of the economists would simply Google the word "layoff", they'd understand that the employment situation in real life is job losses and not job creation. That's why I've been so negative about the economy for months now.

From a political standpoint, this poor jobs' number will cause the Democrats -- literally in panic for their very own jobs in the Fall elections -- to push for another stimulus package. However, I think they've already proven they haven't a got a clue how to create or even save a single job in America.

Additionally, the Census jobs' number might be phony. The worker tally in the May report might just be a faked number through an intentional process of hiring and rehiring people a number of times to inflate the Census headcount. This charge was made yesterday by a whistle blower who has been rehired and trained by the Census Bureau a total of 5 times:



I read this morning that Obama touted the hiring of all those new Census workers (Click here to See Story: Obama: Economy 'getting stronger by the day'). What most liberals, like Obama, don't seem to understand is that you need to create at least 18 private sector jobs in order to have enough income tax revenue to cover the cost of hiring "one" new, Federal government worker. That's because 1/2 of those newly-created private sector jobs won't pay any taxes; leaving the total burden of paying for any new government position to the other half. The reason being that most government workers get paid more and get more health and retirement benefits than equivalent jobs in the private sector. And for our state governments, the government to private sector job ratio is even higher. This is why countries like Greece and states like California are in such deep trouble. Throughout this recession, Obama and Democrats have been creating more and more government jobs while protecting state government jobs like teachers, police, and fireman. At the same time the number of jobs in the private sector has kept shrinking. That, my friends, is a complete recipe for disaster and easily raises the potential for a double-dip recession in the coming year.

Are There Jobs Just Past That Smoke? Or In that Mirror?

Late yesterday, the Census Bureau announced that they had added more than 550,000 workers to their payroll by mid-May (Click here to See Story: Census workers topped 550,000 in mid-May). At the same time, economists are predicting that the upcoming jobs report, due out Friday, will show 500,000 jobs added to the economy in May. Then, too, yesterday, Obama has predicted that Friday's report will show strong job growth. (Click here to See Story: Obama expects 'strong' jobs growth in Friday's report).

Well, here's the thing. Obviously, Obama was already given a heads up that the jobs growth in May was strong. Otherwise, like last month, he wouldn't have said anything before the report was released. But, unless there are more than 550,000 workers added in the month, there is no real growth because of the distortion caused by all those part-time Census Workers. But, as usual, you can expect Obama and Biden to trip over themselves getting to the microphones to propagandize their great success in job creation. However, don't expect the main stream media to expose the Census "lie". Barack is sure to be protected! I can just see the Associated Press headline now: "Economists Surprised: 550,000 Jobs Added in May". Ya, right!

Looking Between The Sheets On Today's Job's Number

While most of the headlines will read that it is the first time in 3 years that jobs have been added to the economy and that the economy may have turned the corner, don't be two quick to fall into that trap.

First of all, of the 162,000 jobs that were created last month, 48,000 were temporary Census worker jobs and another 40,000 were temporary positions in the private sector. So, in reality, only 74,000 full time jobs were created in March. As a country, our population grows at a rate of 250,000 persons (net of births versus deaths) per month. So, in effect, the addition of 75,000 full time jobs in March fell well short of the rate of population growth. We really need to have job additions in excess of 250,000 jobs in order to truly tick away at the 8.5 million people who became unemployed during this recession.

Secondly, the number of people who have been out of work for more than 6 months rose, again, by another 441,000 job seekers. That says more about the job situation that the mere addition of 162,000 jobs. That number has to stop growing before anyone can really say that this economy has turned the corner on jobs.

Lastly, with the unemployment rate remaining static at 9.7%, the true unemployment rate, the one which includes discouraged workers, rose again from 16.8% to 16.9%. This is a disturbing number. Every month, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics just ignores these people in the discouraged worker category as if they are no longer part of the workforce. This, then, artificially makes the unemployment rate look better. So that you understand what a discouraged worker actually is, it is a person who, in the last four weeks or more, has given up looking for work because they have tried so long without any success. While some discouraged workers might be those who took early retirement and may never return to the workforce, there are still millions more who need to work but have an economic or social setting which allows them not to have to look for work in the short term. These could be college graduates who continue to live at home with there parents. It could be a spouse who needs to work but has decided to become a stay at home mom or dad until the job situation gets better. It could be a complete family who has been forced to move in with relatives in order to weather the recession. Lastly, it could be the homeless and jobless persons who have been forced to live in tent cities or on the streets. In any event, these people fully intend to work again but have statistically been shoved off the workforce map.

One last comment about the Census workers. In past Censuses, about 10 to 15% of the overall jobs were filled by this time. That means, that about 100,000 to 150,000 should have been hired in March. Yet, only 48,000 workers were added. Does this indicate a brewing problem in properly completing this decade's Census data?

For a complete summary of this month's jobs data please Click Here.

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