What Trump Doesn't Understand About Job Creation

Last Fall, presidential candidate Donald Trump said "I’ll be the greatest president for jobs that God ever created."  Then, at his inauguration, he said he would create 25 million jobs over the next decade.  "The most of any President." 

The only problem with those statements is: Who will fill all these jobs?

According to the latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of underutilized workers stands at 10.1 or roughly 16 million.  These are people that are unemployed and looking for work.  Those, who in frustration of not being able to find work, have just given up looking.  In addition, it includes people forced to work part time in lieu of finding a full time job.  It also includes people working in jobs below their skill, experience, or education levels.

Yet despite the 16 million workers needing to improve their current situation in the labor force, more than 5.5 million positions remain unfilled each month.  This according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). These are record levels since the BLS has been tracking this data in 2000 as noted by the following chart:

Click on Graphic to Enlarge

It's easy to see, that as jobs have been created since the end of the recession, the number of job openings left on the table keeps increasing.  The reason for this is something called the "skills gap", where employers are unable to match their job openings with the available skills in the under-employed labor force in their local areas. It's the same reason that, in Silicon Valley, 37 percent of all  high tech workers are not U.S. born, with the problem getting worse by the year, as noted by the fact that 74 percent of younger workers are foreign born.

The skills gap isn't just about high tech jobs.  In a survey of General Contractors last year, two-thirds said they were struggling to find "craft" workers.  Those in skilled labor jobs such as roofing, dry wall, heating and air conditioning, plumbers, electricians, etc.

The thing that Trump should seriously focus in on is the pool of workers in this country.  We need people with college degrees in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) so that foreign-born workers don't keep taking these jobs in places like Silicon Valley.  We also need to promote trade schools, so we have an adequate number of plumbers and other skilled workers.  Jobs that may not be as "sexy" as some job-seekers may want, but that would be good paying and far better than being unemployed.

What's the good of creating high paying jobs if there is no one to fill them?  I simply don't see a formula for success in what Trump is trying to sell the country so far.  Perhaps we should subsidize STEM college education as a means of increasing the pool of high-tech workers?  The same would be true for trade schools.  The return in increased income tax revenues from higher paying jobs would greatly offset the cost of subsidizing education in these key fields.


References:

Donald Trump: 'I’ll be the greatest president for jobs that God ever created': http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/28/donald-trump-ill-be-greatest-president-jobs-god-ev/

Trump vows 25 million jobs, most of any president: http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/20/news/economy/donald-trump-jobs-wages/

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Source of Graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

37 percent of Silicon Valley foreign-born: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/37-percent-of-silicon-valley-foreign-born/article/2583195

Two-Thirds of Contractors Have a Hard Time Finding Qualified Craft Workers to Hire Amid Growing Construction Demand, National Survey Finds: https://www.agc.org/news/2016/08/31/two-thirds-contractors-have-hard-time-finding-qualified-craft-workers-hire-amid

Harvard Business Review: Employers Aren’t Just Whining – the “Skills Gap” Is Real: https://hbr.org/2014/08/employers-arent-just-whining-the-skills-gap-is-real

America's persistent problem: Not enough skilled workers - Aug. 7, 2015: http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/07/news/economy/us-economy-job-skills-gap/?iid=EL

Obama's 15 Million Job Creation Claim

Last week, the Employment Report was issued and an anemic 156,000 jobs were created when 176,000 were expected.  The President immediately decided to put some lipstick on that pig of a number by claiming that he had created 15 million new jobs.  Thus, the economy is doing great.

The problem with that 15 million number is that it ignores the first 13 months of his first term in office, when a total of 4.3 million jobs were lost.  Something that was not supposed to happen because of his stimulus package.  But it did, and now Obama doesn't want it on his record.

However, what is on his record is slow wage recovery.  That was born out in a recently released polling report that states 7 out of 10 Americans have less than $1,000 in their savings accounts. This follows an earlier poll that found that 63% of Americans would be unable to handle a surprise bill of just $500.

The bottom line is that America is broke and living paycheck to paycheck.  That is the real state of the economy President Obama will be leaving us with.

References:

US created 156,000 jobs in Sept vs. 176,000 jobs expected - CNBC.com: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/07/nonfarm-payrolls-sept-2016.html

The Obama economy has now created 15 million jobs: http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/07/news/economy/obama-15-million-jobs/

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans have less than $1,000 in savings: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2016/10/09/savings-study/91083712/

Most Americans can't handle a $500 surprise bill: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-cant-handle-a-500-surprise-bill/

Job Creation and Slow Wage Growth

Click on Image to Enlarge

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 60% of all workers in this country are paid hourly.  But, when I look at the graph above, showing extremely low wage growth for hourly workers since 2009, it tells me that it is nearly half of what it should be.  It also tells me that the economy is suffering from an employment condition known as a "slack workforce".  In other words, there are too many workers chasing too few jobs.  As a result, employers aren't competing with each other to fill jobs and retain personnel through higher wages.

Essentially, organic wage growth all comes down to vigorous job creation which appears to be seriously missing.  There can be several reasons for this.  The lack of funding to create startup businesses and entrepreneurship.  Government over-regulation such as ObamaCare which forces businesses to convert workers to part time employment or to use contract labor.   Or, low wages themselves which results in slow business activity and less job growth.

What I am trying to stress is that, since Obama has been in office, wage growth has been well below normal from about 3.5% to 4.5% annually.  Now, while there has been an up trend that started last year, I believe that it had more to do with the fact that 29 States and the District of Columbia imposed minimum wages higher than the Federal minimum of $7.25. If so, this is not indicative of normal or sustainable growth. Only time will tell if true wage growth is restored to normal levels.

References:

Chart Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1Jf5#

What Is an Appropriate Annual Salary Increase?: http://work.chron.com/appropriate-annual-salary-increase-16035.html

Characteristics of Minimum Wage Workers, 2014: http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/archive/characteristics-of-minimum-wage-workers-2014.pdf

American Entrepreneurship: Dead or Alive?: http://www.gallup.com/businessjournal/180431/american-entrepreneurship-dead-alive.aspx

The Downward Trend in Job Creation

Ever since last Friday's May jobs report was released, various economists/analysts have been quick to say that "one month isn't a trend" and this may just be a "fluke" or a "one-off" situation.  The Labor Secretary says the miss is all about 40,000 Verizon workers who are on strike.  Besides the fact that he's inflating the number by 4,000, adding in 36,000 workers would only show that May's numbers would still be low at 74,000 and 61,000 jobs; respectively.  That's half of what April's numbers were, and almost one-fourth of last year's job creation.

Now, I don't know what report those commentators are looking at, but the decline in job creation extends back a year.  Just look at this snap shot from Table B, page 5 of the May Employment Situation Report:

The top line number is Total Non-Farm job's creation which includes governmental.  The lower line is for the Private Sector Non-Farm job creation.  But, in either case, there has been a substantial decrease from the 273,000 or 256,000 jobs that were created a year ago.  And, this month's numbers are a substantial drop from the trend that had developed in the prior two months.

This is why I join a lot of analysts who believe we are heading for a negative labor market contraction  -- maybe as early as next month -- that would indicate a recession.

As far as those commentators, who think this is only a one-off situation, my only guess is that they are trying to soft-peddle this report to either protect Barack Obama's approvals or protect Hillary Clinton's run for the Presidency. Obviously, a recession would be beneficial to Trump running as a successful businessman. 

References:

Labor Secretary Thomas Perez warned that it's important not to overreact to a single bad jobs report: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-may-jobs-report-thomas-perez-191936901.html#

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

A Business Recession Looms: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/04/a_business_recession_looms_130771.html

Friday's bad jobs report is good news for Donald Trump: http://www.businessinsider.sg/bad-jobs-report-donald-trump-2016-6/#.V1L--uS9X-s

36,000 Verizon workers go on strike - Apr. 13, 2016 - CNN Money: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/13/technology/verizon-strike

New York & California Just Killed Entrepreneurship

In just 16 years, the minimum wage in the State of California will see a rise of 222% from $6.75 in 2006 to $15 in 2022.  That is an average annual increase of nearly 14%.  In New York, the increase to $15 from, again, $6.75 in 2006 is more complicated as follows:

• For workers in New York City employed by large businesses (those with at least 11 employees), the minimum wage would rise to $11 at the end of 2016, then another $2 each year, reaching $15 on 12/31/2018.
• For workers in New York City employed by small businesses (those with 10 employees or fewer), the minimum wage would rise to $10.50 by the end of 2016, then another $1.50 each year, reaching $15 on 12/31/2019.
• For workers in Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester Counties, the minimum wage would increase to $10 at the end of 2016, then $1 each year, reaching $15 on 12/31/2021.
• For workers in the rest of the state, the minimum wage would increase to $9.70 at the end of 2016, then another .70 each year, until reaching $12.50 on 12/31/2020 – then  continue to increase to $15 on an indexed schedule to be set by the Director of the Division of Budget in consultation with the Department of Labor.

The reality is that no other class of workers has seen that kind of increase.  In fact, assuming a 2% raise a year, it would take the middle class worker an average of 111 years to have a 222% rise in their salaries.

The point is that many people will find themselves less able to afford products and services that are heavily dependent on low wage workers; such as fast food businesses, retail, hospitality, and leisure.  The same goes for this nation's 55 million seniors, who, at best have seen increases of just 1% a year in their Social Security checks.  Additionally, millions more, such as waiters and waitresses, won't be eligible for minimum wage because they earn tips.  And, so too, for the three quarters of 47 million Americans in poverty who aren't even working.

More importantly, the $15 wage will accelerate the death of entrepreneurship and its ability to create jobs.  It will be much more expensive to start new businesses that generally depend heavily on entry level employees.  Entrepreneurship has already been in decline for decades, but now it will become a much higher risk proposition.  Even before instituting this excessive wage, 1-in-4 startup businesses failed in the first year.  50% will be kicked to the curb in just 4 years, and operational costs are one of the 4 main reasons for failure.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the $15 minimum wage will be a real job creation killer.  And, in fact, a job killer for businesses who must raise prices, and in turn, lose customers who can't afford those price hikes. Also, the $15 minimum wage will bring in automation to replace the humans making that wage.  Already, you can rent a robo-security guard that can hear, smell, and has 360 degree night vision for just $6.25 an hour.  So, if you can already automate a security guard, it only seems logical that other lesser tasks, such as flipping burgers, will follow suit.

References:

Governor Cuomo Signs $15 Minimum Wage Plan and 12 Week Paid Family Leave Policy into Law: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-signs-15-minimum-wage-plan-and-12-week-paid-family-leave-policy-law

California, New York enact $15 minimum wages: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/05/california-new-york-enact-15-minimum-wages.html

California Minimum Wage 2006: https://www.google.com/search?q=california+minimum+wage+in+2007&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

New York Minimum Wage 2006: https://www.google.com/search?q=minimum+wage+in+new+york+in+2006&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Minimum Wage - United States Department of Labor: Questions and Answers About the Minimum Wage: http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/q-a.htm

The Mysterious Death of Entrepreneurship in America: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/entrepreneurship-in-america-is-dying-wait-what-does-that-actually-mean/362097/

The Slow Death of American Entrepreneurship: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-slow-death-of-american-entrepreneurship/

Startup Business Failure Rate By Industry: http://www.statisticbrain.com/startup-failure-by-industry/

The Four Major Reasons for New Business Failure: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/four-major-reasons-new-business-failure-51924.html

Rent A Robot Security Guard for $6.25 an Hour: http://www.psfk.com/2014/12/rent-a-silicon-valley-security-bot-for-6-25-per-hour.html

Obama Is Trying To Re-Write His Jobs Record

Yesterday, following the release of the June employment report, the President told this to an adoring crowd:

“Now, this morning, we learned that our businesses created another 223,000 jobs last month. (Applause) The unemployment rates now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause) Keep in mind, when I came into office, it was hovering around 10 percent. All told we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record. (Applause) 12.8 million new jobs all told...” (Applause)

If only it were true.

When Obama came to Office, the unemployment rate was 7.5%; not hovering around 10. Also, he promised that, with the stimulus, we would be at 5.3% three years ago in 2012.  Oh, and by the way.  His stimulus plan was supposed to keep the unemployment rate below 8%.  Instead, it went to 10.  In support of those projections, he submitted this chart that has been annotated with red data points to reflect the actual data:

64 months ago, in March 2010, the number of unemployed was 15 million with the size of the workforce being 153.9 million.  As of June, 8.3 million were without jobs and the workforce was at 157 million.  In theory, the increase in the workforce by 3.1 million and the reduction of the unemployed by 6.7 million should tell us how many jobs were created in the last 64 months.  My math says 9.8 million.  Three million shy of the President's 12.8 million claim.

Lastly, as to 64 months of jobs creation being a new record?  It was a very long and painful time to get to this point. Not something I personally would think that President Obama should be bragging about.

References:

Obama On June Jobs Report:  https://grabien.com/story.php?id=31596

Chart Source 1: http://www.aei.org/publication/the-awful-awful-august-jobs-report/

Another Chart: http://www.rpc.senate.gov/policy-papers/the-obama-stimulus-three-years-of-failure

Employment Report January 2009: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archive/empsit_02062009.pdf 

Employment Report March 2010: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_04022010.pdf

Employment Report June 2015: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The "Bad" of the December Employment Report: The Average Worker Loses Purchasing Power

According to the latest Employment Report, the month of December saw an increase of 252,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from the prior month's 5.7%.

Now, that sounds like a good report.  One that President Obama is sure to take credit for.

However, there's another bit of news that you won't hear him talk about.  That news is that the average hourly wage fell by 5 cents.  While 5 cents per hour doesn't sound like much, when its annualized and applied to a workforce of more than 156 million Americans, that loss of 5 cents is an equivalent annual loss of more than $16 billion dollars in overall wages; and, those are billions of dollars that won't be applied to growing the economy.

The fact is, that since 2010 and the employment recovery, too many Americans have lost good paying jobs only to be rehired at lower salaries; resulting in stagnant wages.

This is why, more than anything, Americans have given the President low marks on the economy and why, consistently still place it as their number one priority.  No amount of political speak or the touting of how many jobs he's created is going to make the average American feel good about themselves or the economy.

References:

US created 252,000 jobs in Dec vs. 240,000 est; unemployment rate at 5.6% vs. 5.7% est: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102324257

Wage Stagnation Puts The Squeeze On Ordinary Workers: http://www.foreconomicjustice.org/13657/wage-stagnation-puts-the-squeeze-on-ordinary-workers

President Obama Job Approval - Economy: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval_economy-2820.html

Priorities: http://www.pollingreport.com/prioriti.htm

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March's Employment Report Finally Exposes Obama's Poor Job Creation Record

In the latest employment summary, it was reported that 192,000 jobs were created in March.  Additionally, the jobs numbers of both January and February were revised upwards to 144,000 and 197,000; respectively.   So, in three months 533,000 jobs were added to the economy. Yet, the unemployment rate actually went up from from 6.6% to 6.7%.  This simple contradiction exposes a clear flaw in how we measure unemployment as a nation and how Obama has benefited from it and has been able to make the claim of 49 consecutive months of job creation.

For over 4 years, the Obama Administration -- not the country -- has benefited from the fact that millions of able-bodied unemployed workers have just stopped looking for work out of sheer frustration.  Quite simply, when a job seeker gives up, our government no longer considers them part of the unemployed or part of the workforce.  Thus it appears there is job creation and a lowering of the rate of unemployment when there really wasn't.  Proof of this comes from the fact that, from January through March, the number of unemployed workers rose from 10.236 million to 10.486 million.  This was despite a supposed job creation of over half a million jobs. Logically, you can't have job creation when job losses are increasing.  Thus the flaw in our system of measuring this important number.

The reality is that we still have record numbers of sidelined workers who have given up; and, that is the only reason why Obama's job creation record, is as good as it is.  But, if one looks at the U6 accounting of the unemployment rate, which doesn't exclude those no longer job hunting, we have an unemployment rate that is still at 12.7%; well above the officially high rate of 10% in 2010.  The simple fact is that, for every job Obama says he created, two unemployed workers just gave up looking for work.

References:

March Employment Situation Summary: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

March Household Survey Data:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

March Alternative Measures Of Labor Utilization (U1 through U6): http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

49 Consecutive Months Of Private Sector Job Growth: http://www.dpcc.senate.gov/?p=blog&id=172

Forget The Obama Hype, This Was A Very Bad Jobs Report

Obama will once again hit the airways and tell us how many consecutive months he's had job creation under his "plan" and, as usual, he will also say that his Administration has created x-million jobs.  But all that is just so much political B.S.  You have to ask yourself this simple question: "If the unemployment rate rose last month, how is it possible that the economy could have actually added 163,000 new jobs?"  The answer is as simple as the question.  The workforce size was being manipulated.

Here are the "real" facts.  For 42 consecutive months, the unemployment rate has been above 8%.  In the last 4 months, the rate has gone "up" from 8.1% in April to 8.2% in May; and, from 8.2% in June to 8.3% in July.  That's the wrong direction.  When Obama took office, the unemployment rate was 7.6%. At the same time, the workforce size was 154.2 million and there were 11.6 million unemployed.  Today, the workforce size is 155 million workers and the unemployed number is 12.8 million.  Net those numbers all together and you would find that the economy actually lost 400,000 jobs since Obama took office; not created them.  The bottom line is that you couldn't have created x-million jobs when, on a net basis, our economy actually lost jobs.

Finally, let's not forget this propagandist chart that the President's economic team put together to justify a near trillion dollars in stimulus spending:

Click on graph for enlarged view

According to the chart, the stimulus was to keep unemployment under 7.9%; and, that, by now, the unemployment rate should be around 5.6%.  Instead, the economy did even worse than what Obama said it would do without stimulus.  Without stimulus, unemployment was supposed to top out at 9%.  In actuality, with stimulus, the unemployment rate hit 10.2%.  Without stimulus, today's unemployment rate was projected to be at about 6%.  Yet, for months, the stimulus has kept us consistently above 8%.  And, now, it's rising again..

Here's a Daily News story on the jobs report: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weak-hiring-expected-fourth-straight-month-article-1.1128191

The Economy Actually Lost Jobs (again) Last Month

Depending on which economist you listen to, the economy needs to add somewhere between 125,000 to 166,000 jobs every month; just to account for population growth.  A failure to do so actually means that the economy lost jobs.  According to last Friday's employment report, only 80,000 jobs were added.  What that really says is that the we actually lost between 45,000 and 86,000 in June.  Would somebody please tell Obama that this is not "a step in the right direction" as he had commented on Friday with regard to the jobs report:

Where Are Those 4 Million Jobs, Mr. President?

In almost every campaign speech, Barack Obama continues to claim that he's created 4.3 million jobs since he's been in office.  But, here's the thing: Where's the "official" top-line, government number that supports that claim?

Logic would tell you that the first place you would look to see a creation of 4.3 million jobs would be in a reduction of the number of jobless workers since Obama became President.  But, according to Obama's own U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of unemployed workers has actually grown by 1.1 million; rising from 11.6 million job seekers in January 2009 to 12.7 million in last month's employment report.

So, then, if we can't see Obama's job creation number in the number of unemployed workers,  the only other place to find Obama's jobs number would be in an increase in the size of this nation's workforce. But, always keep in mind that  a workforce should naturally grow each year to accommodate all the new workers who would be entering the job market after exiting school.  Of course, this number would have to be net of any retirees who would be leaving the workforce at the same time.  For the United States, that net job growth number would be about 1% or 1.54 million new workers per year on a base of 154.2 million workers in the labor force when Obama took office.  Now here's the problem.  The workforce has only gown by 800,000 workers in the last 27 months.  Not enough to even cover the growth in the number of unemployed workers during that period; let alone, enough to cover Obama's supposed job creation record.


The fact is that nowhere -- except out of the mouth of this President -- can anyone really find those 4.3 million jobs. Even if the policies of this President did create that many jobs,  the top-line numbers would then "have to" suggest that for every "one job" being created, "two jobs" had to have been destroyed in the process.  And, probably, that's the real record of an Obama presidency.

The Really Horrible Employment Number That No One's Talking About

Last month's employment report revealed that a record 88 million people are no longer part of the workforce.  When Obama took office that number was around 80.5 million. In just three years, those not working has increased by nearly 10% or 7.5 million people.

This fact is a horrible reality.  It means that millions of graduating high school and college seniors never got a chance to the enter the workforce.  At the same time, it means that millions of former workers, who lost their jobs, just, frustratingly, gave up looking for work. And, let's not forget that these 7.5 million are over-and-above the official 1.1 million increase in the number of unemployed since Obama took office; moving from 11.6 million in January 2009 to last month's 12.7 million. This certainly flies in the face of Obama's claim that, some how, he has created 2.5 million jobs since taking office.

The Left's Attack On Perry's Job Creation Record

Over the last couple of weeks, the left-leaning, mainstream media has decided that Governor Rick Perry's job creation record needs to be discredited if Obama wants to be reelected. As a consequence, the media has centered on the "quality" of the jobs that were created in Texas while trying to bury the fact that it has created nearly 40% of all the jobs in the United States since the recession began and that Texas has an unemployment rate that is 1% point below Obama's national number.

In doing so, the Obama defenders have noted three specific facts: (1) 9.2% of all hourly-paid jobs are being paid below the minimum wage when the national average is only 3%; and, (2) Texas has created more minimum wage jobs than anywhere else in the U.S.;and, (3) the average hourly wage is lower than the national average of all hourly wages across the country. All of those arguments are both specious and dishonest and take statistics out of context.

In terms of the "below minimum wage" argument, a significant fact isn't being told. That's the fact that Texas has the 3rd or 4th lowest cost of living (depending on the survey) of all 50 states (Click here to See Story). As a consequence, people making less than the minimum wage in Texas are quite better off than in a high cost of living state like California, where even a minimum wage might not be enough live on. As a result, only 1 in 10 Texans are on food stamp assistance. Compare that with the national average of 1 out every 7 people receiving food stamps; thanks to Obama's record on employment.

Then there's the "more minimum wage earners" argument. Well...dah...if you have a high job creation rate, it's only logical that you will, similarly, have a high creation of minimum wage jobs. But, as noted above, getting paid minimum wage in a low cost of living state is a helluva lot better than in much higher cost of living states; like the ones that most liberals seem to live in.

Lastly, the average hourly wage" argument doesn't hold water either when you put it, again, into the context of cost of living. When it comes to average hourly wages, there's one statistic the press and liberals seem eager to ignore; and, that's how fast wages are rising in Texas. Just last year, the average hourly wage rose by 3.5% and is expected to meet that number again in 2011. In comparison, the national average hourly wage only increased by 0.5% in the same period. Again, this is hardly a record that Obama can be proud of.

I'll never forget my economics professor who, in my very first class with him, wrote on the board behind him: "There are lies, damn lies, and, then, there are statistics." He then proceeded to take this famous Mark Twain quote and hammer home the fact that you should always look beyond a single statistic and put it into a clear context. All too often, the press, the pundits and the politicians, alike, play the game of cherry picking statistics. That's why I write this blog. It's always my intent to clear the "fog" because I understand the truth in what Mark Twain had once said.