Hillary's Claim of Voter Suppression by GOP is Just Political

In a recent speech, and with no proof whatsoever, Hillary Clinton claimed that GOP-controlled state legislatures with Republican governors are suppressing the vote for millions of mostly young and minority citizens.

If that were true, we would be seeing a decline in overall registration, but as this chart from the Census Bureau shows, U.S. voter registration has been fairly constant with totals actually up slightly in 2012 from the 1996 presidential election when voter I.D's were not required in any state:

In typical fashion, Hillary has cherry-picked some left-leaning study as the source for her "millions" claim.  But, as Wikipedia has noted, claims of this nature are inconclusive and have been shown to have no or only minimal impact.  In fact, a Census Bureau report on voter registration, showed that only 11% of black citizens remained unregistered in 2012 as compared to 14% of the white population.  In 2000, the Census Bureau recorded that 32.5% of blacks were not registered to vote.  If black registrations are being "systematically" suppressed, why then was there a 65% improvement from 2000 to 2012?

The simple fact is that Hillary is desperately worried that blacks won't turnout to vote for her in the same numbers they did for Barack Obama, and it could cost her the election.  So, she is now trying to use voting rights as a wedge issue; both in the primaries and the general election in 2016.  This whole voter suppression claim is a canard and a false portrayal for political reasons.  The same holds true for the youth vote, but Obama himself has poisoned the well on high registration and turnout.

Lastly, while Hillary's tack to the left on Voter I.D. laws might sit well with her supporters for the nomination, it won't do the same for the general electorate.  In a Fox poll last year, 70% of those registered voters who were polled, supported I.D.'s.  A similar Rasmussen poll, in that same year, found the percentage even higher at 78% and not just for voter I.D.'s but for proof of citizenship to get one.

References:

Hillary: "Republicans Are Systematically And Deliberately Trying To Stop Millions Of American Citizens To Vote": http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/06/05/hillary_republicans_are_systematically_and_deliberately_trying_to_stop_millions_of_american_citizens_to_vote.html

Voter ID laws in the United States: https://www.google.com/search?q=voter+i.d.&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

Census Bureau: Voter Registration and Voting 2012: http://thedataweb.rm.census.gov/TheDataWeb_HotReport2/voting/voting.hrml

Census Bureau: Voter Data 2000: https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p20-542.pdf

Younger Millennials Have Soured On Obama: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/09/10/younger-millennials-have-soured-on-obama-will-republicans-capitalize/

Why young people don’t vote: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/10/economist-explains-24

Poll: 70 percent support voter ID laws: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/206300-poll-70-percent-support-voter-id-laws

78% Favor Proof of Citizenship Before Being Allowed to Vote: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2014/78_favor_proof_of_citizenship_before_being_allowed_to_vote

A Rise to a 5.5% Unemployment Rate Is a Good Thing?

Since the latest jobs report was released yesterday morning, more than a few economists are touting a strengthening jobs market because the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.5%. Oddly enough, this would normally be true since the official and publicly announced unemployment rate is calculated without including workers who have given up looking for a job but still want to work.  Sensing a better chance of employment, many of those are once again attempting a job search. Add some of those people back into the workforce and it is natural for the unemployment rate to go up.  That is as long as the number of workers rejoining the workforce is greater than the number of jobs being created.  Superficially that was the case.  The size of the workforce grew by 397,000 and 280,000 jobs were created; resulting in an increase of unemployed by 125,000 and an increased unemployment rate.

However, if this was really true, we should have seen a corresponding reduction in the number of people not looking for work.  We didn't.  Instead the U-6 number of Table A-15 -- the Alternative measures of labor underutilization -- stayed the same at 10.8%.

Also, if the job market was truly improving, the number of people who are long term unemployed should be going down.  But, again from Table A-15, the U-1 percent for those people out of work for more than 15 weeks rose from 2.3% (in the prior month) to 2.4%. At the same time, job losers (the U-2 report of the same table) rose from 2.6% to 2.7%; month-over-month.

I guess I'm tired of economists simply looking at the top line numbers and ignoring the details and coming up with the false conclusion that this report shows a strengthening job market.

References:

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION—MAY 2015 - Bureau of Labor Statistics:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Economists agree that the May jobs report was good all around: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-unemployment-rate-rose-2015-6

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On ISIS, is History Repeating Itself?

Europe and Russia should thank God for Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, because without it, a war weary America, might never have joined the fight against Hitler in Europe.  Essentially, before Pearl Harbor, America was willing to sit it out on the belief that it was their war to win.  Not ours.  As a consequence, Hitler's domination of all of Europe, including Russia, may have come to pass. But, because Hitler had a verbal agreement with Japan to defend them in the event that the United States attacked, he was forced to declare war on the U.S. just 4 days after the attack on Pearl Harbor.  Certainly, Hitler never thought that an attack on Japan would ever occur, or that it would be the result of them attacking the U.S.

Today, the United States is in a similar position as in the years prior to Pearl Harbor.  We, like then, are war weary following the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  When Presidential Press Secretary Josh Earnest was asked about the possibility of our increasing involvement in fighting against ISIS, his response was:

“The United States is not going to be responsible for securing the security situation inside of Iraq

Read More: Chad’s Morning Brief: The White House Says ISIS is Iraq’s Problem and Other Top Stories | http://kfyo.com/chads-morning-brief-the-white-house-says-isis-is-iraqs-problem-and-other-top-stories/?trackback=tsmclip

“The United States is not going to be responsible for securing the security situation inside of Iraq

Read More: Chad’s Morning Brief: The White House Says ISIS is Iraq’s Problem and Other Top Stories | http://kfyo.com/chads-morning-brief-the-white-house-says-isis-is-iraqs-problem-and-other-top-stories/?trackback=tsmclip

“The United States is not going to be responsible for securing the security situation inside of Iraq

Read More: Chad’s Morning Brief: The White House Says ISIS is Iraq’s Problem and Other Top Stories | http://kfyo.com/chads-morning-brief-the-white-house-says-isis-is-iraqs-problem-and-other-top-stories/?trackback=tsmclip

“The United States is not going to be responsible for securing the security situation inside of Iraq..."

So, essentially, like the war in Europe prior to World War II, ISIS in Iraq is their problem and not ours.  Similarly, by extension, ISIS in Syria is a Syrian problem; which explains why we have done nothing in that country to support the free-Syrian rebels.  I suppose if ISIS takes both Iraq and Syria, and then sets its sights on Jordan or Saudi Arabia, we will continue to ignore it all until, and unless, we have another Pearl Harbor or an ISIS version of 9/11.  Do we ever learn?

References:

Germany declares war on the United States: http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-declares-war-on-the-united-states

U.S. and Iraq vs. ISIS: http://kfyo.com/chads-morning-brief-the-white-house-says-isis-is-iraqs-problem-and-other-top-stories/

Obama: Because of Him, the U.S. Is The Most Respected Country In the World

In a recent Gallup poll, respondents around the world ranked the United States number one in leadership. It wasn't but seconds later, that Obama took credit for it:

The problem with the President's self-serving pat on the back is that, if you actually look at the internal details of that Gallup poll, you would see that respect for U.S. leadership has fallen every year since Obama has been in office.  This after having an unrealistic jump in 2009 when he had nothing to show for his leadership except empty words, false promises, and no action.

However, Obama knows that hardly anyone is going to fact-check the details behind his "I-did-it" proclamation. A better and more accurate poll would reflect the opinion of world leaders towards the U.S.  I think those results may be quite different; especially among our supposed allies.  Still, this is more about the approval of Obama as a man and not his policies. Just as was the case in 2009.

Though President Obama sees himself as respected throughout the world, he may want to check out a recent CNN/ORC poll where he comes in dead last for job approval when compared to the two Bushes, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton.  He only receives a 49% approval when his predecessor, George W. Bush, gets 52%.   Apparently, Americans don't seem to agree with the constant blaming of Bush the "W" for every problem that exists in the country today.

References:

Gallup: Although the leadership of the U.S. earned the highest approval ratings of any major world power asked about in 2014, approval of U.S. leadership dropped to a new low in Africa last year, and tumbling support in Central Asia erased the big gains in the larger Asia region in 2013: http://www.gallup.com/poll/183122/leadership-loses-ground-africa-asia.aspx?utm_source=position3&utm_medium=related&utm_campaign=tiles

CNN/ORC poll (page 10): http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/02/obama,.economy.poll.pdf

The Decline of Small Business Employment in America

Starting a new business has always been a risky endeavor.  Today, 25% of all new businesses fail in the first year. 50% in the first 4 years, and by year 10, only about 29% are left standing.  With odds like that it's no wonder that business creation is in decline in America.  What person or lender is going to be willing to risk everything by funding something that could easily fail in the first year, and increasingly, every year thereafter?
Still -- except for recessions -- this country has always been able to create more new jobs from startup companies than job losses due to failed ones, as noted by this chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Business Employment Report from 2009:

Most notably from the above chart, employment from new businesses has been steadily declining since 1999 when new business job creation peaked in America at 1.95 million.  Then, at the worst point of the Great Recession, it fell to a twenty-year low of just 1.15 million.

Following the end of that recession, and except for a single-quarter aberration in 2012, job creation somewhat rebounded and has been pretty much moving sideways at around 1.3 million jobs; with losses mostly remaining lower than those being created.

Whether or not this is a trend or merely a pause in pre-recession declines is anyone's guess.  It could be that the pause is a result of the reopening of once-profitable businesses that had failed previously during the recession.

Even so, job creation from new businesses is nowhere near the high of the 1990's; or, for that matter, 2004 levels.  Some say the decline is due to the high cost of compliance with local, state, and federal rules governing businesses and their operations.  Others say the high failure rate has made less money available for new ventures.  Another might be the rise of the "big box" stores like Walmart and Target that are crowding out small retail businesses. Still, many think the pool of new ideas is just logically shrinking.  Whatever the case, small businesses and their share of jobs are on the wane:

As this graph shows, small businesses -- businesses under 250 workers -- have declined from providing 51% of all jobs in the U.S, to just a little over 47%.  The simple reality is that big companies have become the engine for job growth.  The era of small businesses being the job creators is over.  The American Dream may have become just that -- a dream.

References:

Startup and Business Failure Statistics: http://www.statisticbrain.com/startup-failure-by-industry/

Entrepreneurship and the U.S. Economy: http://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm

BUSINESS  EMPLOYMENT  DYNAMICS  – THIRD  QUARTER  2009: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cewbd_05202010.pdf

BUSINESS  EMPLOYMENT  DYNAMICS  – THIRD  QUARTER  2014: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cewbd.pdf

Will Socialism Be The Only Answer In A World Run By Robots?

We already have cars being tested that drive themselves.  So, when they are finally perfected and approved, why would we need cab drivers?  What about bus drivers and truck drivers?  In Nevada, German truck manufacturer Daimler is already testing a self-driving truck. Microsoft has replaced its human security guards patrolling it's Silicon Valley campus with 5 foot tall robots that use artificial intelligence to navigate and detect security problems.  There's even a robot capable of sorting items at recycling centers.

The reality is, that an increasing number of jobs are being replaced by intelligent machines.  So rapidly, in fact, that some experts believe that 30% of all jobs will be replaced by 2025.

The 30% of workers that do lose their jobs will no longer be paying into Social Security and Medicare to support the millions already living off of those two programs. They'll pay no taxes that typically support welfare and wards of the state. So, how is society going to take care of the millions of workers forced into unemployment by these machines?  I think initially, the politicians will try to stop robot takeover through a tax on every one being deployed; arguing the taxes will be needed to pay for all those people who lost their jobs.   Eventually, though, the only answer will be to allow robot takeover and dump capitalism in favor of socialism with everyone being paid by the state and allotted certain necessities for free.  And, in the irony of all ironies, capitalism, the chief driver of innovation in the world, will die by its own hands.

References:

Self-driving Cars Are No Longer a Thing of the Future | TIME: http://time.com/3661446/self-driving-driverless-cars-ces/

The World’s First Self-Driving Semi-Truck Hits the Road: The World’s First Self-Driving Semi-Truck Hits the Road

Microsoft's Silicon Valley campus is protected by robots:http://www.dailydot.com/technology/microsoft-robot-security-guards/

Green machine: Intelligent robot system recycles waste: http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/07/tech/zenrobotics-recycling-robot/

Handcuffing Our Police Is Killing More Americans Than Terrorism

According to the latest State Department accounting, out of 17,891 terrorist murders around the world in 2013, 19 were Americans.

In Baltimore, May was the first full month since the Freddie Gray riots. 38 homicides were committed; an increase of 20 from the previous four months that averaged a total of 18 murders a month.  More than all the Americans killed by terrorists in all of 2013.

And, Baltimore is not alone.  This year, after seeing two decades of decline in gun violence, many cities like New York, Chicago, Atlanta, and St. Louis, are experiencing double-digit increases in murders in just the first 5 months of the year.   In Milwaukee, homicides are up 180% over last year. 

This is what happens when you have a President and his current and past Attorney's General, Mayors like De Blasio in New York City, and activists like Al Sharpton all condemning the police over the deaths of 3 unarmed black men: Michael Brown, Eric Garner, and Freddie Gray.  The police are now in a position where they believe that no one has their backs.  Especially, their President and the Department of Justice. As a result, arrests and traffic stops are down. There is fear that a single stop could result in their own deaths, because they are now more likely to hesitate to protect themselves. A split-second hesitation that could be deadly. Any altercation with a suspect could end in their own arrests or even a charge of murder. Without the preventive policing of stopping suspicious  people, countless illegal guns are not being confiscated that ultimately end up killing someone.

Hundreds more black lives are being lost every month, and innocent black women and children are being killed in the process.  If black lives really do matter, the new policies towards (really, against) policing are not working.

The media is always talking about President Obama's legacies such as Cuba and the possibility of a nuke deal with Iran.  Well, here's one that he now owns.  Killing more people through restrictive policing than terrorists like ISIS could ever hope to accomplish since 9/11. Americans now have more to fear from this President's handcuffing of police than any terrorist group.  The facts prove it.

One last thing.  Obama is readying a number of gun control laws aimed at keeping them out of the hands of dangerous people.  Really? His policing restrictions have actually managed to allow dangerous people to keep guns and increasingly use them.  Violent offenders will always find ways to buy weapons outside the law.  Just as drug addicts can always find drugs,  Please, for the sake of all too many lives, let the cops do their jobs.

Update: The final tally of homicides in Baltimore for May is 43; meaning a 25 murder increase from the first four months of the year: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/05/31/baltimore-homicides-worst-in-40-years/28284839/

References:

The New Nationwide Crime Rate: https://www.google.com/search?q=The+New+Nationwide+Crime+Wave&oq=The+New+Nationwide+Crime+Wave&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60.96j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8#q=The+New+Nationwide+Crime+Wave&tbm=nws

Of the 17,891 Deaths from Terrorism Last Year, 19 Were American. Let Iraqis Fight ISIS: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/of-the-17891-deaths-from_b_5818082.html

The double murder Thursday of a young mother and her 7-year-old boy brought Baltimore's bloody monthly homicide tally to 38, a figure that dwarfs that of similar-sized cities and even exceeds the total for the same period in New York: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/05/30/murder-capital-baltimores-homicide-explosion-in-wake-freddie-gray-case-dwarfs/

Baltimore boy, 8, murdered [shot in the head] as city's bloody May continues: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/baltimore-boy-8-murdered-city-bloody-continues-article-1.2238941

You’re [now] 45% more likely to be murdered in de Blasio’s Manhattan: http://nypost.com/2015/05/26/youre-45-more-likely-to-be-murdered-in-de-blasios-manhattan/

Summer 2015 Starts Off With Staggering Gun Violence in Chicago, NY, Baltimore: http://americamagazine.org/content/dispatches/summer-2015-starts-staggering-gun-violence-chicago-ny-baltimore

Administration preps new gun regulations: http://thehill.com/regulation/243520-administration-preps-new-gun-regulations


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