This Trend Isn't Obama's Friend!

In the investment world, there's an old saying that the "Trend Is Your Friend." It doesn't matter if it's going up or going down but, if you recognize the trend you will be "out" when the market or a stock is going down or "in" when a stock or the stock market is trending upwards. But, when talking about politics, if you've got a declining trend in your approval rating, that trend is only a friend to your political opponents.

When Obama took office, he had a 65% approval rating when Real Clear Politics took its average of all the major polls at that time (as noted in the interactive chart - above). Similarly, his disapproval score was about 20%. The differential between those who approved of him and those who didn't was a whopping separation of nearly 45%. Further, with only a 20% disapproval rating and a registered Republican base of nearly 30% of the people in the country, it was obvious that about 1/3 of all Republicans had a favorable view of the new President.

Today, you can clearly see that Obama's approval rating is on a precipitous downward slide as evidenced by taking the interactive chart (above) and adding a couple of trend lines to it as shown below:


At the same time, the rise in his disapproval rate is mirroring his decline; but a slightly faster rate.

As noted previously, Obama had a 45 percentile differential in his approval/disapproval scores when he took office. Today, that separation has fallen to just over 13 points.

At the current trend, it looks as if Obama will flip his approval/disapproval ratings in just one to two months from now; assuming that the things that are turning people off about this President continue to rise.

I believe that team Obama is well aware of this and, for that reason, they are literally panic-pushing to get these big items like Cap and Trade and Health Care reform done before the President's composite popularity in all the polls falls below 50% .

(Please note: The latest Rasmussen daily tracking polls now have Obama's approval at only 49% (Click to See Data) and Gallup's daily tracking polls are not far behind at 55% (Click to See that Data)).

The big thing about Obama losing approval is that it opens the door for a reversal of the wins that the Democrats enjoyed in 2006 and 2008. For the Republicans, this could be a foot back in the door; only if played right. However, it might not be as beneficial for the Republicans as one thinks. If the Republican's popularity remains low and the Democrats ratings continue to fall, this might give rise to a strong third party in America. Because of the winner-take-all effect of our Electoral College system, the Democrats could win again because they have a higher number of registered voters. I think a third party could easily hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats.

The only reason I even mention a third political party is because of the "Tea Party" movement. While it appears the Tea Party participants have the support in all areas of the political spectrum -- Republicans, Independents and Democrats -- the highest level of support is by far Republicans. For this reason, it could split the Republicans and hurt them the most if the "Tea Party" goers actually morph into a political party. But, what will "actually" happen is anyone's guess because months can be like a lifetime in the world of politics.

One thing you can be sure of is if the President's popularity falls below 50%, his policies will struggle; despite having complete control in both Houses of Congress. That's because the individual members of Congress will abandon the party line and adopt a posture of "every man for themself" if they feel their own job is in jeopardy. When that happens, Obama's remaining years might well be totally fruitless; just as Jimmy Carter's only term in office was. We can already see that happening with the Blue Dog Democrats rebelling against Health Care Reform and Cap and Trade. Obama's fight on these issues is no longer with the Republicans but with the members of his own Party; no matter how he tries to spin it.

It should be really interesting to see what happens over the next couple of months. Increasingly, the trend is "not" hardly Obama's friend!

Note: If you would like to see how all the national pollsters faired in their accuracy in the 2008 election, please review these results from a Fordham U. study: (Click to See Full Story). While the Rassmussen Poll has Obama under 50%, it should be pointed out that it is the only major national poll that soley focuses on "likely voters". The others included reflect all those who answer their polls; regardless of their past voting status or whether or not they are even registered as voters. To me, "likely voters" is more important than some generalized popularity rating.

Also Note: The first chart being displayed in this blog entry is being dynamically linked from the Real Clear Politics website. Therefore, its data will be constantly updated past the orgininal date of this particular blog posting.