Obama Should Watch Out For The Undecideds

This morning, the national, daily, Rasmussen presidential tracking poll has Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama by five points; 49% to 44%.  As part of that polling, 3% indicated that they were undecided.

Now, in politics there is something called the "Incumbent Rule".  It simply states that, by election time, 80% of those likely voters, who previously declared themselves undecided, will vote against the incumbent and for the challenger.  So, when you see polling data, like the Rasmussen data (above), it is more likely that Mitt Romney is leading Obama by 51% to 44%; actually, a seven point lead.

Always keep this in mind whenever you see head-to-head Obama/Romney polling data.  This is especially important with a poll that has Obama slightly ahead of Mitt Romney.