Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Confounding Mr. Trump

The fact that Donald Trump is now the presumptive winner of the Republican nomination has confounded political experts and political junkies for weeks.  Even the prognosticator extraordinaire, Nate Silver, has had to admit he underestimated "The Donald".  Even so, no one believed that Trump would ever stand a chance at beating Hillary.  After all, the polling was always in her favor against the supposed Muslim-Mexican-women-hating businessman.

However, once again, Trump is defying gravity.  In two separate polls, just days apart,  Rasmussen and Fox News found he is beating Hillary Clinton nationally.  By 5 points in the Rasmussen poll; and by 3 points in the Fox poll. Now, the latest ABC/Washington Post has him 2 points ahead. Thus, Trump now leads in 3 of the last 5 polls.

Click on Image to Enlarge

The real question then becomes: Is Trump's lead more about the acceptance of Trump or more about the weakness of Hillary?  Given Bernie Sanders' good performances in the primaries against her, I think the latter is probably true. Simply, she was a weak
candidate against Obama; and, now looks to be weakening against Trump. Don't ever underestimate Hillary's ability to lose.


Nate Silver: How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter

NATE SILVER: Screwed up on Donald Trump - Business Insider: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-pundit-donald-trump-2016-5

Rasmussen Reports: White House Watch: Trump 42%, Clinton 37%: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Fox News Poll: Trump tops Clinton, both seen as deeply flawed candidates: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/18/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-both-seen-as-deeply-flawed-candidates.html

Polls: Clinton vs. Trump: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

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