Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Death of Chicago?

Most everyone knows that Chicago has a murder rate problem.  But, it also is a city that may, like Detroit, feel the pain of bankruptcy at some point.

A recent report from the Census Bureau showed that the Chicago area had the greatest loss of population in the country; losing 21,300 residents.  That was a doubling of the prior year's loss.  Now, while losing 21,000+ residents in a city of 2.7 million isn't that significant, the fact that the loss of residents doubled in one year is.  A trend that can't be sustained without the city substantially losing tax revenues.  Something that it can ill afford.  Chicago is already in financial distress; ranking the worst among 116 major cities in the U.S.  Of course, the Mayor's solution: more taxes.  Something  that would only accelerate the exodus.

Chicago's problems don't stop there.  Since 2000, the middle class in the city has gone from 56% to 51% with most falling into the lower classes.  As a result, average wages have also decreased and again, the city's tax base has shrunk.  On top of all that, the city's school system is in such bad shape that it may actually declare bankruptcy to escape its mammoth debt commitments.

Simply, things aren't going in the right direction for Chicago. Everything seems to be pointing to a city in a serious death spiral.  It has been following the exact same path that Detroit found itself in when it finally declared bankruptcy in 2013 and even with bankruptcy, the city is still shrinking in size.

References:

Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore Lead Nation in Population Loss; Maricopa County Has Biggest Gain: https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/chicago-detroit-baltimore-lead-nation-population-loss-maricopa-county

Chicago Has Biggest Population Dip As Southern States Grow: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/03/23/chicago-has-biggest-population-dip-as-southern-states-grow/

Chicago area's middle class shrinking, report finds: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-pew-declining-middle-class-met-20160511-story.html

Chicago's Population: https://www.google.com/search?q=chicago+population&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

EXCLUSIVE: Chicago, New York in Worst Financial Shape Among Large US Cities: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/01/09/EXCLUSIVE-Chicago-New-York-Worst-Financial-Shape-Among-Large-US-Cities

Maybe Chicago schools should declare bankruptcy and get it over: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/maybe-chicago-schools-should-declare-bankruptcy-and-get-it-over-with-says-moodys-2017-01-13




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