When The Partying Is Over

Today is a day of celebration as we usher in a new President. As in 43 times before this day, there is a peaceful transfer of power from one President's Administration to a new one. As the 44th President of the United States of America, Barack Obama joins an extremely elite group of Americans who have lead this country.

Today, there are parties, dancing, and drinking at the various balls that have been planned in celebration. But, tomorrow, the new President must go to work. While, as of today, he assumes the power of the Presidency to act on those challenges that now face our country, the blame for current problems will remain with George W. Bush. However, at some point in the future, those major problems that now confront our country, if not corrected, will become the responsibility of this new President.

I would expect that our always-impatient nation will give Mr. Obama a pass of about a year on the economy; even though our liberal media will continue to blame Bush forever. If, however, the economy doesn't stabilize or even gets worse towards the end of that year, I believe Mr. Obama will start taking the blame. Not from the press; but, the people. That's just the way our nation is.

On the war in Iraq, I think things have substantially changed to a point where we could actually believe we have won this one. For that reason, this is a positive for the outgoing Mr. Bush; even if the rationale for going into that war, in the first place, is still in question. If Mr. Obama maintains or improves the relatively peaceful situation that Iraq now finds itself in, he won't assume any blame for that war. If he starts removing troops too early and things, once again, become unstable, it will then become his war.

In Afghanistan, things are already deteriorating and Bush will maintain blame for that situation. On this particular war, I believe Mr. Obama has an opportunity to shine if things improve. However, the minute that things start to dramatically fall apart, the blame for Afghanistan will transfer to him. What he does in the next few months will make all the difference.

As to the war on terror, we have been without another attack since 9/11. For this, Bush gets his gold star. I would hope the mechanisms put in place by the Bush Administration will maintain that situation. However, if an attack occurs after any new policy or operational changes are implemented by the new Administration, Mr. Obama will take serious heat. It could, in fact, spell the end to his chances for a second term.

On the general foreign policy stage, I think anything that happens will be Mr. Obama's responsibility from the get-go. That's because, other than Iraq, the Bush Administration has maintained multilateral coalitions in dealing with Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Russia and it's recent movements and gains in strength, and other hots spots. Foreign policy is one thing a President makes his own from the day he takes office. What happens in Israel and Palestine will quickly become Mr. Obama's responsibility. How he responds to those problems and the result of those responses will formulate how is judged as President.

One thing that could hurt Mr. Obama could be on the energy front. If his "green" policies result in intolerable high energy prices, Mr. Obama will suffer. If the economy is bad and energy prices rise in addition, we could have a disastrous economic situation. Beyond that, domestic policies, any of his programs relative to Social Security, nationalized health care, education, veterans, etc. will all be things that he will take either praise or blame for.

Quite frankly, I don't think that any other incoming President other than Abraham Lincoln or FDR has had to face so many challenges. Did the people get it right in picking this man with so little experience? Only time will tell.