Another Obama Hyper-Fantasy: A Doubling Of Exports By 2015

Now, just days before the election, President Obama has produced a 20-page, glossy booklet of "the" things he will do to improve the economy in his next term.  He did this to squelch the complaints that, nowhere, can anyone find Obama's plan for a second term. But, as many have noted, all this booklet does is rehash much of what he promised to do in his first term.   One such "jobs" promise that appears in that booklet is a repeat of his 2010 State Of The Union commitment to double U.S. exports "by" 2015.

While this sounds like a real "jobs" winner, the reality of this actually happening is nearly impossible.  Just as had been the case with almost all of Obama's promises.

First of all, in order to double exports in just five years -- from a total number of exports in 2009 to the total at the end of 2014 -- you need to "compound" export growth by more than 18% per year.  So, this fact begs the question: Are our exports even close to meeting that growth demand?  Of course, the answer to that question is "NO".

From 2009 to 2010, exports only grew by 16.4%; from $6.3 trillion dollars worth of trade to $7.4 trillion.  Of course, this is a clear miss of that 18+% needed to double exports in just 5 years.  In 2011, exports only grew by 13.5% to $18.3 trillion.  Again, well off the required mark.  Then, there's this year.  In the first half, exports only amounted to $4.3 trillion.  This means that we are, at best, set to do about $8.7 trillion; or, a meager increase of slightly more that 4%.  Next year is looking to be even worse because our trade with Europe is deteriorating rapidly as most of those counties are either in or entering a state of recession and high rates of unemployment.  China, too, is projecting a slowdown of their economy.  This is why many of our main exporting companies, like Caterpillar, are projecting serious slowdowns in revenues and earnings in the last quarter of this year and going into 2013.

So, in each of the last 3+ years that Obama has been in office, export growth has been declining.   Just like our economy.  Yet, this President continues to tell the whopper that he will double exports under his watch. 

References:

--- Bloomberg-Business Week: Keeping a Close Eye on Obama's Export-Doubling Pledge: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-10-24/keeping-a-close-eye-on-obamas-export-doubling-pledge

--- United States Exports: A 10-year Chart and Quarterly Statistics: http://www.forecast-chart.com/chart-us-exports.html

--- NBC News: Stocks finish flat after earnings disappoint (Caterpillar says: "said the global economy is slowing faster than it had expected"): http://marketday.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/22/14615604-stocks-finish-flat-after-earnings-disappoint?lite