Friday, March 28, 2014

Gallup Polling Suggests Democrats Are Again In Trouble In This Year's Midterm Election

In 2010, America saw a sea change in politics with Democrats losing big at both the federal and state levels.  At the federal level, the Republicans retook the House of Representatives and the Senate Democrats lost their two-thirds, legislative super majority.

In that year, more than anything else, ObamaCare was adversely on the minds of the voters.  But no group was more active in punishing the Democrats for the health care law than seniors.  A post election analysis showed that 61% of those aged 65 years or older turned out to vote.  The highest percentage of any age group. Of those 55 to 65, the turnout rate was still relatively high at 54%. Only 37% of those 25 to 44 voted that year.  Worse yet, only 21% of the nation's youth turned out.

One only has to look at this graph from Gallup to understand why 2010 was such a bad year for the Democrats:

As this chart shows, Democrats went from a positive 13% party affiliation advantage among seniors in 2006 to a negative 6% disadvantage in 2010.  That's really surprising because the drop took place during the supposed Great Recession.  A recession that the Democrats were constantly blaming on Bush and the Republicans.  Even the "younger" Americans trended away from the Democrats but still left their party with a 2% voting advantage in 2010.

While Gallup suggests that the Democrats have recovered from their 2010 lows, seniors are still a negative for the Democrats; and, if 2010 was a midterm blueprint, they and their high turnout are the one's who will probably decide who wins or loses in the Fall.

In another polling report, Gallup also indicates a loss of  Democrat party affiliation among all whites and all non-whites:

In this polling result, the Democrats bottomed out in 2011 with their party reflecting a 14 percentage point disadvantage among all whites.  On top of that, a normally solid base for the Democrats, saw a drop from a high of 58% to just 43% in 2011; meaning that, no longer, were Democrats able to hold a majority against non-whites.  In the case of whites, there has only been a recovery of 2 percentage points since 2010.  For non-whites, the story is even more grim with support for Democrats still less than a majority at 45%.

Now, none of the above charts reflect any attitudinal changes that may have taken place since the roll out of ObamaCare.  However, my guess is that there has been another 2010-like shift away from the Democrats.  If so, I truly believe the Democrats will lose big again with the loss of control of the Senate.


Why Older Citizens are More Likely to Vote:

U.S. Seniors Have Realigned With the Republican Party:

U.S. Whites More Solidly Republican in Recent Years:


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