Monday, June 6, 2016

The Downward Trend in Job Creation

Ever since last Friday's May jobs report was released, various economists/analysts have been quick to say that "one month isn't a trend" and this may just be a "fluke" or a "one-off" situation.  The Labor Secretary says the miss is all about 40,000 Verizon workers who are on strike.  Besides the fact that he's inflating the number by 4,000, adding in 36,000 workers would only show that May's numbers would still be low at 74,000 and 61,000 jobs; respectively.  That's half of what April's numbers were, and almost one-fourth of last year's job creation.

Now, I don't know what report those commentators are looking at, but the decline in job creation extends back a year.  Just look at this snap shot from Table B, page 5 of the May Employment Situation Report:

The top line number is Total Non-Farm job's creation which includes governmental.  The lower line is for the Private Sector Non-Farm job creation.  But, in either case, there has been a substantial decrease from the 273,000 or 256,000 jobs that were created a year ago.  And, this month's numbers are a substantial drop from the trend that had developed in the prior two months.

This is why I join a lot of analysts who believe we are heading for a negative labor market contraction  -- maybe as early as next month -- that would indicate a recession.

As far as those commentators, who think this is only a one-off situation, my only guess is that they are trying to soft-peddle this report to either protect Barack Obama's approvals or protect Hillary Clinton's run for the Presidency. Obviously, a recession would be beneficial to Trump running as a successful businessman. 


Labor Secretary Thomas Perez warned that it's important not to overreact to a single bad jobs report

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted:

A Business Recession Looms:

Friday's bad jobs report is good news for Donald Trump:

36,000 Verizon workers go on strike - Apr. 13, 2016 - CNN Money:

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