Monday, June 28, 2010

Another Black And Blue Uemployment Report?

The next unemployment report is due out Friday. The previous report was both dismal and disappointing with only 21k net jobs being created after deducting the Census Worker count. The next report, based on the economists being surveyed, is expected to be even worse, with a drop of as many as 145,000 workers in June. Also, the survey expects the unemployment rate to rise from 9.7% to 9.8% for the month.

Since the economic surveys of the last 3 years have always been wrong and, since the economy seems to be weakening, my guess is that Friday's numbers will be another shocker to the downside. I don't think that the ripple effect of the Gulf oil spill is being fully taken into consideration in that 145K jobs estimate. Further, the GDP number came in below the expected 3% level at a dismal 2.7% rate. What's important about that number is the fact that history has proven that you need at least a 3% growth in GDP to just to account for population growth. Further, a number higher than 3% is actually needed to address any additional job growth due to immigration; legal or otherwise. A number of 2.7% means that a lot more people may have lost their jobs as our country's production output falls. I wouldn't be the least surprised if Friday will see a near 200,000 jobs lost in June, with the unemployment rate upped to 9.8% or, even hitting 9.9% again.

Of course, my crystal ball hasn't been that perfect, either. To know this, you just have look back at my predictions for oil and gasoline prices of just a few months ago. Predictions that were completely blown out of the water by the potential collapse of some of the European Union's member states and the Union's currency: the Euro. However, my predictions on our economy have been fairly accurate. For that I can thank Obama and the Democrats for making that job much easier because of all their foolish policies.

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