Gallup's October 18th presidential tracking poll shows Romney leading Obama -- nationally -- 51% to 45%. This poll is a seven-day, rolling average of daily samples so, it doesn't include the recent Obama-Romney debate results. But, it does include, for the first time, full polling data following the Biden-Ryan debate. The real question is whether or not this phenomenal weakness on the part of the Obama campaign is a result of Biden's childish debate performance or, perhaps, fallout from the Benghazi embassy attack. Given the way the media has done everything possible to cover up the Benghazi story, my guess is that this poll is showing us that Biden's performance was a serious negative for the President's campaign.
Make no mistake about it, this Gallup poll is a real problem for Obama. As Karl Rove aptly noted, no candidate has ever lost after having achieved a 50% or greater rating by mid-October in this particular Gallup poll; definitely putting Romney in the catbird seat. Or, to put it another way, if Obama was to win, it would be a historic first.
Furthermore, the always-accurate University of Colorado Poli-Sci election model now indicates that Romney has a 77% chance of winning the popular vote. That model has never been wrong; going all the way back to 1980. And, that 77% chance is a very high number relative to past winning candidates.
Update: As of today, the very latest Gallup numbers give Romney a 52% to 45% lead.
--- Gallup Tracking Poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
--- Story on the Colorado University Study: http://www.campusreform.org/blog/?ID=4435
--- Karl Rove Video: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/17/rove_no_candidate_who_has_led_with_50_of_more_in_likely_voter_poll_in_mid-october_has_lost.html
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