Friday, September 16, 2016

A Miracle! Record Rise in Household Incomes

In 2012, a presidential election year, the unemployment rate held stubbornly above 8%.  Many believed that President Obama couldn't be reelected unless the rate was below 8%.  Some referred to it as the "8-percent rule".  But, then a miracle happened.  In early October -- less than 30-days before the election -- the Obama Administration reported that the unemployment rate fell from 8.1% to 7.8% and, of course, Obama was able to tout this as an economic success and went on to win the election.  However, subsequent analysis of this miraculous drop in the unemployment rate was impossible and was probably faked.

Now, flash forward to just less than two months before the the 2015 presidential election.  This time, the miracle is the fact that the Obama Administration  has reported real median household incomes in 2015 rising by a never before seen record amount of 5.2%.  Of course, this helps Hillary by weakening Trump's argument about low wage growth.   But, what makes this a true miracle is the fact that it flies in the face of what the Obama Administration has been reporting throughout 2015.

First, you need to understand that the term "real" when referring to incomes, means that the number has been adjusted for inflation through the subtraction of the percent of the rate of inflation.  Then, if you refer to page 8 of the employment report for December 2015, you would see that average weekly earnings rose 2.2% from $851.85 in December 2014 to $870.78 in December 2015.  In 2015, inflation rose 7-tenths of a percent.  This means that the "real" wage growth rose just 1.5% in 2015.

This is quite the stretch to 5.2%; even if "median" analysis is applied.  I  think we have another 2012 rigging of a critical number before an election.  The only way we will find out if I am right is when next year's report is issued, and we see a significant drop in incomes to adjust them back to reality.


Record rise in incomes could boost Clinton:

Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance in the United States in 2015:

The 8-percent rule: Can Obama win with high unemployment?:

The October 2012 Pre-Election Jobs Report Was Faked:

Did The BLS Give Obama A Major Election 2012 Gift?:

Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report:

December 2015 Employment report:

US Inflation Rates: 2006-2016:

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