A recent survey reported by CNBC, in an article titled "US unemployed have quit looking for jobs at a 'frightening' level: Survey", clearly explained this fact. According to that polling, 59% of Americans out of work for 2 or more years had given up looking for employment. Overall, 43% of all those out of work have given up trying to find a job. All of which are no longer in the Census Bureau's calculus of unemployment rate.
Now, following Trump's election, it appears that many of the these former uncounted "bench sitters" are starting to look for work, again. As a result, the unemployment rate is rising:
|Click on Graphic to Enlarge|
Each month since Trump was elected, the unemployment rate has increased while the Labor Force Participation has also increased. This, to me, suggests that those former "bench sitters" are believing that Trump will find them work; and are once again actively looking. They are now among the "counted" and the unemployment rate is rising. It is no coincidence that the labor force participation rate -- the percentage of workers who consider themselves in the workforce -- went from 62.6% in November to 62.9% in January; and, over the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 4.6% to 4.8%.
The downside of this is that uninformed people will blame Trump for rising unemployment when, in fact, the real culprit was the Obama Administration. It is highly possible that the unemployment rate will go well above 5%. And, there is no way that the anti-Trump media, will go out of their way to explain the truth.
January Unemployment Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
US unemployed have quit looking for jobs at a 'frightening' level: Survey: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/us-unemployed-have-quit-looking-for-jobs-at-a-frightening-level-survey.html
What's the real unemployment rate? - CNBC.com: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/06/whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html