Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Juan Williams' Polling Defense of Obama: Shattered!

I guess I've heard it dozens of times. Whenever Fox News Contributor, Juan Williams, is asked about the chances that Obama may lose the 2012 election, he always counters by pointing to the fact that Obama wins in any heads up poll against a Republican. Williams even furthers his argument by stating that Obama always wins against the so-called, no-name, generic Republican. (Click to See the Video).

Well, this week has been a really bad one for Juan. That's because, in a variety of polls, Obama falls short of both individually named Republicans and, you guessed it, against his favorite boogeyman: the generic Republican.

Juan's first bad news came this week when, in a Rasmussen poll, Obama loses to the fictional generic Republican by 5 points; 48% to 43%. That's well beyond the 2 point, plus/minus margin of error. (Click here to See Story: Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 43%)

Then, in a Gallup poll, Romney beats Obama by 2 percentage points and Perry hangs close with a tie. (Click here to See Story: Obama in Close Race Against Romney, Perry, Bachmann, Paul) However, there is some solace for Mr. Williams because, in both cases, the results are within the margin of error. But, even so, the margin of error might not necessarily be in Obama's favor.

Then, in the all important and high electoral vote, swing-state of Florida comes even more disturbing news. In a Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies poll of Floridians, Obama loses to Romney by 10 percentage points; 49% to 39%. Against Perry, Obama loses by 7 percentage points; 46% to 39%. And, even Michele Bachmann scores a win; albeit, by only 1 point. But, even more disconcerting for Williams must be the fact that Hispanic voters only give Obama a 23% nod against Romney's at 62%. Against Perry, Obama see's a meager 25% of the Hispanic vote. Finally, against Bachmann, Obama can only muster 30%. This has to be very disturbing because in 2008, Hispanics voted in droves for Obama; 62% nationwide and 57% in Florida. (Click here to See Polling data -- go to page 3 for data specific to this blog entry)

So, poor Juan might just have lost his last, favorite argument on behalf of Obama's reelection. What then? My guess is he'll join the rest of the Democrats in simply attacking the Republicans in an effort to make Obama look better. Ya think?

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