Friday, March 27, 2015

ObamaCare's Numbers Con

Last year, President Obama proudly declared that ObamaCare was a success with 8 million enrolled.  By November, the Obama Administration had to admit that only 6.7 million had actually signed up.
A near 20% overstatement.

Now, following the end of the extended enrollment period, the President's Health and Human Services (HHS) Dept. released a new document touting its success.  A screenshot of the key elements of the report are as follows:
Click on image to enlarge
As you can see, 14.1 million people have signed up for ObamaCare in the exchanges and this has caused the uninsured rate to fall from 20.3% to 13.2% in just two years.  The source of the data is the Gallup organization.  But, apparently, the people at HHS think we're so stupid that we will  just accept their "facts" as truth; even after last year's admitted deception. Sadly, once again, we're being lied to.

First, there's the actual Gallup data that the above chart was supposedly to be based on.

As you can see, the uninsured rate has dramatically fallen.  But, not from 20.3%.  Also, where that 13.2% came from in the first quarter of 2015 is anyone's guess.  Gallup hadn't yet polled the first quarter 2015 numbers because it hadn't yet ended by the time HHS generated their report.

What is really interesting about the HHS chart is that it only shows the data from a high of 20.3%; and, in doing so, they can claim a 35% reduction in the uninsured rate.  The real Gallup poll shows is that, the uninsured rate rose from  a low of 14.4% in 2008 to a high of 18% in 2013.  All under Obama's watch.  So, the actual reduction in the uninsured rate is from 14.4% to 12.9%; or, only a 10.4% improvement since Obama took office.  

Instead of percentages, lets talk about the people without insurance.  In 2008, the population was 304 million; meaning that the number of uninsured in that year was 43.8 million.  Today's population is 320 million and the uninsured rate is 12.9%.  This means that 41.8 million are uninsured.  So, since 2008, the real improvement is just 2 million. A claim of 14.1 million signups reducing the uninsured under ObamaCare is greatly mitigated.

Lastly, there's the issue of that 14.1 million number. It could very well be that, like last year, the number is 20% overstated.  I say this because the website that tracks signups has the total enrollment at 12 million as of March 23rd.  That's 2.1 million less than what HHS claimed as of a week earlier, and, as we found out last year, the actual numbers will only fall because some percentage of all the signups won't pay for the insurance they signed up for.

The fact remains that we still have nearly 42 million people uninsured in this country.  This after two years of active enrollment and after two years of penalties in effect for not participating.  That's the real number that matters and the real number that shows that ObamaCare is not a success.


Administration 'erroneously' over-counted ObamaCare Enrollees:


In U.S., Uninsured Rate Sinks to 12.9%:

Population in 2008:

U.S. Population 2015: 320 Million and World Population 7.2 Billion: | Tracking Enrollments for the Affordable Care Act:

No comments: