A quick review of the national polls clearly indicates that the lead that John McCain had enjoyed after his selection of Sarah Palin and the Republican Conventions is almost completely gone. Obama is back on top as if the none of the VP picks had occurred and as if the Conventions were never held. This time, two months ago, Obama had a Real Clear Politics composite lead of 4.6 percent(Click to See Chart). Now, Real Clear Politics has Obama leading by 4.0.
I guess a McCain optimist could say that McCain still has a gain of 6 tenths-of-one-percent over the poll of two months ago. The only problem with that is that most of the change has been in the last week with Obama getting strong gains.
I think two reasons are responsible for the flip in leads from McCain to Obama.
First, the media's negative attacks on Sarah Palin have taken their toll on the positives that she once brought to the ticket. The media has attacked her experience, her position on guns and abortion, and has attacked her on her flips on things like the "Bridge to Nowhere". There has been no such similar attacks on Joe Biden's policy changes and earmark problems. Further, the media seems to has completely ignored his missteps and gaffes over the last 3 weeks.
Second, the economc crisis has been directed at McCain because, well, Bush is Republican and Bush is at the helm during this crisis. All the ground work of making McCain look like 4 more years of Bush is probably paying off for Obama. Forget about the fact that low income workers inappropriately got loans and this fact, alone, is at the core of our current economic disaster-in-the-making. That's not hardly something a Republican would have pushed for but, it seems the Republicans are getting the blame because Wall Steet is involved. The reality is that this "policy" of low income home ownership can be traced back to Bill Clinton and Democrats like Barney Frank who pushed for changes in the laws to facilitate this totally bad economic policy. Further, the main stream media has failed to connect the dots to groups like ACORN (which Obama once worked for as a community organizer) and their role in pushing home loans for unqualified, loan income workers. With only 39 days left before this election and with the main stream media backing Obama, none of those association will be printed and cost Obama the election. Believe me, if all this could be blamed on Bush and McCain, the Democratically controlled Congress would be holding hearings to expose that fact and tank any chances of McCain and any other Republican getting re-elected or into office. But, as I have said before, there will be no such hearings and that says a lot about who is really at fault on this one.
McCain's only hope, now, is that he and Sarah Palin do well in their respective debates. I think, too, that they should pray that this financial crisis is settled soon so that it doesn't linger until the election. Otherwise, I feel that John McCains chances have probably died with the advent of this economic crisis.