The Big Drop In This Morning's Jobless Claims Was Due To 4th Of July

Two years ago, on the 22nd of July, I wrote this:  

It Was All Because Of A National Holiday, Stupid!

As I had predicted three weeks ago, the jobless claims would fall following the three-day, Fourth-of-July holiday. Also as predicted, the economists would be shocked (as in the case this morning) when the jobless claims jumped significantly to be greater than expected (Click here to See Story: Jobless claims rise more than expected last week). Actually, the claims number jumped to 464,000 from the "expected" consensus of only 445,000. And that number was markedly higher than last week's reported 427,000.

Well, this morning the jobless claims fell by a shocking 26,000 claims.  And, of course, the experts seemed to be grasping at straws, like fewer auto plant closures, to explain the drop.  But, as I had indicated in the headline of my July 22, 2010 blog entry: "It Was All Because Of A National Holiday, Stupid!"  And just like 2010, you can expect the jobless claims to rise again to their usual lousy levels.

Story on the claims drop: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-12/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-plunge-as-fewer-auto-plants-shut-down