Thursday, June 26, 2008

Outlier...Liar...Pants on Fire!

When a number in statistics is so far off base from other sets of numbers, it is called an outlier. When it comes to the results of the "LA Times/Bloomberg" and the "Newsweek" presidential polling, the term outlier certainly applies.

For last three weeks, most of the polls have had Barack Obama with a 2 to 7 point lead over John McCain since Barack "clinched" the nomination over Hillary Clinton. Then, out of the blue, comes a "Newsweek" poll with Obama leading by 15 points; and, just as amazing, the LA Times/Bloomberg poll comes out with Obama at 12 points over McCain. Both of these entries are shown in the graphic above which is a screen-shot of the latest Real Clear Politics tracking of the most recent 6 national polls.

Probably, without too much argument, both of these news organizations are some of the most liberal (left-leaning) media groups in the United States. So, without any embarrassment, it is no wonder that they feel comfortable showing the Democrat, Obama, with such a vast lead over the Republican, John McCain. (After all, both Newsweek and the L.A. Times are part of the vast left-wing conspiracy in this country.) It appears from the internal statistics of both of these polls that they polled a higher than normal amount of Democrats. Duh! And, that alone has resulted in the more than doubling of the final differential between Obama and McCain.

For example, the La Times/Bloomberg polled 17 percent more Democrats than Republicans. Based on "overall" party registrations throughout our country, the Democrats have about 8 percent more registered voters than the Republicans. So, the La Times/Bloomberg poll double that differential; and, as a result, doubled the lead for Obama.

Personally, I would be ashamed to put out a poll that was so skewed to "their guy". However, there is "no shame" in the Democratic party and their party affiliates like the "LA Times" and "Newsweek". It is consistent with everything that is known about the news media in this country: they try to "make" the news rather than report the news. They eagerly want the voting public to believe that Barack Obama is accepted by "more" people in this country than he really is. My guess is that they must have generously "sprinkled" their real "call lists" for this polling data with some of (a lot of) the phone numbers from Democratic Party donor list. Of course, that is only cynical speculation on my biased part and I am sure they only "accidentally" called more Democrats.

The reality of most of the polling data is that Barack Obama has about a 3 to 4 percent lead which, in most cases, is within the margin of error. That puts this election in the too close to call category. You should also remember that Obama polled consistently higher than the actual voting proved out during the primaries. For all we know the race may be dead even or, possibly, with John McCain leading. We just don't know. And, it should be pointed out that at his exact point in 2004, John Kerry had a 7 percent lead over George W. Bush. One thing is for sure, all these numbers only emphasizes how important the non-partisan, independent and swing voters will be in the final count. And, I don't think Obama should be high-five-ing anybody at this point.

Note: You can get an enlarged view of the Graphics (above) by clicking on it.

Update: Yesterday's Gallup Daily Tracking poll has McCain and Obama at 45% each (tied).

No comments: