Thursday, August 7, 2008

Obama: Losing the Ladies

Monday, a rather little-publicized Zogby International poll was released (See Full Story).

Probably the most obvious aspect of that poll is that John McCain now leads Barack Obama; 42 percent to 41 percent, respectively. This is surprising because the last time this same poll was conducted, Barack Obama had a 10 point advantage over McCain; 46 percent to 36 percent. But, more importantly, this poll shows the effect of having Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate for President and a Republican takeaway, and Ralph Nader, a Democrat takeaway, in the race. In essence, Barr and Nader negate each other. Neither takes more or less vote from either McCain or Obama. This also smacks in the face of those Democratic strategists who keep saying John McCain will lose more votes to Bob Barr than Obama will lose to Nader.

Lastly, this poll shows Barack Obama losing some of the women's vote; especially young women. As I have said in this blog, before, I believe this to be the Hillary effect. That's why I still think picking a woman as V.P. would be an important strategy for both candidates (See Full Story)

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