Three Quarters of Economic Growth -- Shouldn't the Recession be Over?

Friday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report marked the 3rd consecutive quarter of economic growth. Traditionally and somewhat unofficially, two quarters of growth in the GDP signals the end of a recession. In America, the arbiter of the recession call is left to a Cambridge, Mass. group, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). But, to date, the NBER has made no "end" of recession call. The reason for this is the fact that there has been so much artificial stimulus put into this economy that it is impossible to know if it can survive on its own without the training wheels. The jury is still out as to whether or not the Keynesian concept of massive cash infusions will produce results or, as I and many others believe, just delay continuance of the recession in what is known as a double-dip.

With that in mind, please take the time to listen to the video comments (below) of Martin Feldstein. He is the President Emeritus of the NBER and the George W. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard. He is currently on Obama's Board of Economic Advisers and served other Presidents. He was considered the top competitor for Greenspan's job as Fed. Chief when Bush finally decided on Ben Bernanke.



If you listened to the full video, you would have heard Mr. Feldstein stress that consumer spending is integral to recovery. However, on Friday, consumer confidence fell after having risen in the previous month to the highest level since 2008. The consumer confidence number should be watched closely because, if it continues to fall, it means that their much-needed spending will naturally abate and this economy could, again, be in trouble.