Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Confirming My Projection of an 11% Unemployment Rate

On November 6th, I wrote this blog entry: An 11% Unemployment Rate by June?

Now, Nouriel Roubini, writing in an op-ed, is making the same 11% unemployment projection (Click to See Full Story).

If you don't know who Roubini is, he is the economist who accurately predicted the collapse of the housing market and the subsequent recession. He did that in 2005 -- a little more than two years before it actually happened.

Also, consistent with many of my blog entries, he makes the following predictions:

"As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures."

If I were Obama, I would be listening closely to Roubini. Obama would have been wise to have hired this man as part of his economic team; rather than go with that bunch of ideologically-driven, economic hacks that he ultimately went with. And, that's just my opinion.

No comments: