Friday, July 11, 2008

Why Isn't Obama Way Ahead?

Of all the registered voters in this country, the vast majority (43 percent) are Democrats. There are only 33 percent of the voters who call themselves Republicans. The rest, 24 percent, are declared Independents with no political party affiliation.

If you look at the daily tracking polls from either Gallup or Rasmussen, you will consistently see Barack Obama ahead of John McCain. Of all the polls since John McCain and Barack Obama have been the presumptive candidates. Obama has never taken a "majority voter" advantage (50% or more) over McCain. In fact, the highest percentage of voter support for Obama has generally been 47 percent. (Note: there was a single day where he received 48%. That has to be tossed as an anomaly) And, for John McCain, the lowest voter support for him in the polls has only be 42%. In the most recent polls from Rasmussen/Gallup, you will see Barack Obama with a nominal lead of a 2 or 3 percentage points. As an example, here's a graph from the Gallup website as of this morning (Click to See Graph).

A number of points stick out as a result of all these numbers. First, with 43 percent of the registered voters in this country being Democrats, Mr. Obama is only tracking with a maximum of 4% higher than that number; and, never higher than 50% of all voters. This means that, even if he has all of his party's votes, he isn't able to attract very much more than a handful of Independents. Further, given the attitude towards the war, the current economic situation, and the housing collapse, you would think the party of the current President, the Republicans, would be lagging horribly in the polls. But, the Republican, McCain. stays within a statistical margin of error behind Barack Obama.

We also know that Obama "polls" higher than the actual and final vote count. This was evident many times in his run against Hillary. Often, this disparity was over 5 percentage points. So, if this is the case against McCain and with only a 2 or 3 percentage point lead, it is possible that Obama is actually behind McCain by two or more percentage points.

I just think this says a lot more about Barack Obama than McCain. While it might show enthusiasm on the Left, it doesn't show much more than that. If he is getting all the Democrats in the polls; he isn't getting many of the Independents or Republicans. If he is getting a lot of the Independent vote and some of the Republicans, that, then, says he isn't doing well with his own party. Anyway you shake it. I just don't think that the country is swallowing the "Obama" madness. I just don't see it in these polls.

image by Cranky George

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